Stats Insider is empowering Australian sport. Our vision is to evolve the sports fan experience by making data-driven content widely available to sports nuts like us. Launching in 2018 with AFLW, and since publishing predictions across over 15 sports codes, we are dedicated to leading the way on advanced analytics content and discussion in Australian sport.

Built in-house at our HQ in Collingwood, Stats Insider’s machine learning models take a number of different approaches to predicting the outcome of sporting events. In general, our models are based around using a Monte Carlo approach to simulate each match 10,000 times to understand the range of outcomes, and how likely each of them is.

In most sports, such as NRL and AFL, we first predict the performance of each individual player, based on hundreds of algorithmic factors for each sport, and then use this range of player performances to run our match simulations. If a team wins 4,000 of our simulations, we project them to be a 40% chance to win the upcoming match.

Our models update throughout the week, and take advantage of all the information available at that time: team lists when they’re announced, weather conditions when they’re known, moves in the betting market as they happen. When all is said and done, you’ll use your own knowledge and the information we give you to engage with the sport - whether that’s as a viewer, as a punter, or in your office tipping competition.

Our models also predict the outcome of major thoroughbred races, and we offer an easy-to-use form guide for your days at the races, at the pub, or on your sofa. That form guide includes our value assessment, predicted win/place % and deep-dive analysis for each horse, all of which utilises our machine learning models, with the win/place %’s being generated through a Monte Carlo approach as described above.

We are driven every day by the need for intelligent sports coverage and bloody good data across the codes we love in this country and hope that your experience with Stats Insider exceeds expectations. If there is something we could be doing to improve your experience, or if you see an alignment between what we do and an idea you have, please make sure you reach out to us so we can get talking.

While everything on the site is free to view, we encourage you to register a free account in order to participate in active conversation across articles and match pages.