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Stats Insider is empowering Australian sport. Our vision is to evolve the sports fan experience by making data-driven content widely available to sports nuts like us. Launching in 2018 with AFLW, and since publishing predictions across over 15 sports codes, we are dedicated to leading the way on advanced analytics content and discussion in Australian sport.
Built in-house at our HQ in Collingwood, Stats Insider’s machine learning models take a number of different approaches to predicting the outcome of sporting events. In general, our models are based around using a Monte Carlo approach to simulate each match 10,000 times to understand the range of outcomes, and how likely each of them is.
In most sports, such as NRL and AFL, we first predict the performance of each individual player, based on hundreds of algorithmic factors for each sport, and then use this range of player performances to run our match simulations. If a team wins 4,000 of our simulations, we project them to be a 40% chance to win the upcoming match.
Our models update throughout the week, and take advantage of all the information available at that time: team lists when they’re announced, weather conditions when they’re known, moves in the betting market as they happen. When all is said and done, you’ll use your own knowledge and the information we give you to engage with the sport - whether that’s as a viewer, as a punter, or in your office tipping competition.
Our models also predict the outcome of major thoroughbred races, and we offer an easy-to-use form guide for your days at the races, at the pub, or on your sofa. That form guide includes our value assessment, predicted win/place % and deep-dive analysis for each horse, all of which utilises our machine learning models, with the win/place %’s being generated through a Monte Carlo approach as described above.
We are driven every day by the need for intelligent sports coverage and bloody good data across the codes we love in this country and hope that your experience with Stats Insider exceeds expectations. If there is something we could be doing to improve your experience, or if you see an alignment between what we do and an idea you have, please make sure you reach out to us so we can get talking.
While everything on the site is free to view, we encourage you to register a free account in order to participate in active conversation across articles and match pages.
The Stats Insider punting information displayed on selected pages across the site is designed to give our users an edge against the bookmakers. This information should only be used as a guide to navigate the best value plays on upcoming matches. Here are some important things to know if you plan on using this information:
We’re not a tipping service.
Stats Insider is closer to a form guide than a tipping service because our predictions move with the market and with the information known, so the investment suggestions change based on the best value currently available. We provide the information 24/7, you decide what to do with it.
This is what we do.
We’ve been building, developing and testing our models for 15 years, and continue to add to and improve them daily to bring you the best possible predictions every time. It’s our sole focus and what we dedicate all of our time to. There is a lot of information out there, and you can build your own models to take over the world, but chances are you don’t have the time to do that for every game in every sport. That’s why we’re here.
Predictive, not historic.
The fact that Geelong has won their last 4 out of 5 games against Melbourne does not necessarily mean they are going to win the next one. What if 3 of their key forwards are out next week, what if they’re playing away and in the rain? Historical stats are not a predictor of future performance. Predictive analytics take these things into account, and much more, to give you a true prediction of how a game is most likely going to play out, based on 10,000 simulations of the upcoming match-up. Read more about how we build these predictions here.
It's easy to find & free.
The Model Value Summary page is the fastest way to see all of our value plays for upcoming matches. You can also find detailed information on each value play on the match page.
We believe data-driven wagering intelligence is paramount to decision making in betting, rather than relying on emotion or gut feel. By making this information completely free to access, our goal is to help punters make more informed investments, and ultimately get an Edge on others in the market, wherever you bet.
Beat the bookies while they’re behind the ball.
It’s going to take the bookies a while to catch up with the times, and by using Stats Insider, you have the ultimate head start to catch them out. The trick is timing – use Stats Insider predictions early in the week, or when predictions go up, to get ahead of the market.
We’re good.
We bet on our own predictions because they win, but we’re not idiots. If it’s not a good bet, or if the risk is too high, we give it a miss and wait for the next bet to pop up. Betting smart means higher profit margins and more money in the bank for the next punt.
Ask and you shall receive. Below is a constantly updated list of questions you have asked and we have answered. If we haven’t covered what you’re looking for below, submit a new question here.
How do our predictive models work?
Each of the Stats Insider models uses a fairly similar approach to simulating a sporting event. They vary in complexity and approach: our NRL & AFL models are more sophisticated than our AFLW ones, because there is more information available. Our Cricket model differs from our ‘ball-sport’ ones, because Cricket is effectively a series of individual matchups between a bowler and a batsman (with some fielding quality impact) where as ball sports are impacted by the ability and positioning of multiple players at a time.
In essence though, we seek to predict the distribution of a players performance (e.g. how often a player will score 0, 1 or 2 tries, how often they’ll have 10, 20 or 30 disposals). Once we have those distributions, we use a Monte Carlo approach to predicting the outcome of the match; that is we take those player distributions and simulate the game 10,000 times, so as to understand how likely a team is to win, how likely there will be 40 points scored, or how likely a player is to score the first goal.
Once we’ve run those simulations, then for the punters and tippers amongst you we can compare the results to common betting markets, and the odds on offer. If a team wins 6,520 of our 10,000 simulations, then we predict them to be a 65.2% chance of winning the match. If you’re able to bet them at $2 at your local TAB or friendly online bookmaker, we might highlight them as an investment worth considering further.
How accurate are they?
If we’re predicting a team has a 55% chance of winning, or even an 80% chance of winning, that’s not saying they are going to win, or even we think they’re going to win. We’re saying we think if they play this match 100 times, they will win 55/80 of them. That’s a crucial difference, and underlies everything we publish on Stats Insider: we provide data, not tips.
We won’t publish anything on this site that we do not believe to be profitable against available odds, and similarly everything we publish we expect to be within a reasonable margin of error in predicting match or season outcomes. That said, the profitability of the models will vary from sport to sport and market to market, and we would expect to lose 45-46% of our line or total bets, and to have losing periods – and even seasons – across all sports.
Why do they change?
If you came to the site on Monday and we highlighted the Broncos as an investment worth considering, but by Saturday we’re suggesting you consider opposing them, don’t be surprised. Our models gain information all the time: on Tuesday when (NRL) team lists are announced, on Thursday when it’s announced the hooker has picked up an injury, on Friday when one of the big betting Syndicates hammers the price, and on Saturday morning when the BOM issue a weather alert for a severe thunderstorm. All of those things impact the possible outcomes of the match, and so all of them impact our models. Our suggested investments may change frequently right up until game time.
How do your in-game simulations work?
They’re very similar. 10,000 simulations take a fair bit of time – and computing power – to run, and we can’t do that every minute during the game. Depending on the sport, we may run 500 or 1000 simulations of the rest of the game. But the approach is the same: if we played the rest of this game numerous times, how many times does each team win?
How about the projected ladder?
Our seasonal projections take two primary inputs: the individual match simulations (that is, we simulate each match remaining in the season 10,000 times), and the likelihood that a team will be impacted by injury to one or more of their key players. If a player has historically missed 25% of the season through injury, or if they’re in doubt for the coming week, our season simulations will capture this and force the team to ‘play’ some of those games without that player. Our seasonal simulations are more complex, and take longer to update, so you may notice these lag a day or a few days behind the individual match projections.
What should I do with the information?
Well, that’s up to you. We bet many of our suggested investments each week. We enter them in tipping contests. We use the information to inform our fantasy decisions and pick our daily fantasy teams.
But, most of the time, we just use them to watch the games from a different angle. At kickoff, the Tigers don’t have a 50% chance of beating the Lions, it might be closer to 70%. When a referee makes a controversial decision and disallows the try, we can see that 15% increase in win probability come right off the board. It makes you appreciate every play that happens. It makes sport more fun.
Sports Fan? Data Science a passion? Ready to join a team pushing the boundaries of sports analytics across multiple sectors?
Hypometer Technologies is a young, progressive, company working with major players across the wagering, media and sports segments to deliver innovative sports analytics solutions. Internally,the company builds machine learning models for a growing list of 16+ sports plus horse racing, publishing predictions and stats across two industry-leading customer facing websites, Stats Insider and Fantasy Insider, as well as delivering high-quality sports-data products to business clients.
Based in Melbourne, and playing an integral role in a small team of Data Analysts, Data Scientists and Engineers, this is an exciting opportunity to apply your skills, grow your practical knowledge, and ultimately, turn your passion into a career in sports data.
Key Responsibilities:
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Manage the end-to-end data lifecycle, from data pipelines to machine learning models and the APIs which power our products.
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Take responsibility for testing and reviewing code from our internal and external developers.
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Work with our Data Analysis team to implement, refactor and improve our existing and upcoming predictive models, using Azure’s Machine Learning and Functions services in conjunction with data processing libraries such as Pandas, NumPy and scikit-learn.
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Must be familiar with sports, sports data, and key wagering markets.
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Must be able and willing to work outside of regular working hours, to support clients in the US & UK, and sporting events taking place in those time zones (e.g. supporting NFL models ~2am-10am on Mondays).
Our stack:
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Data Science - Python, Jupyter Notebooks, Azure ML
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Data Pipelines - MySQL, CosmosDB, Azure Functions, Github, Postgres, CosmosDB, Ubuntu VMs
We are moving towards fully cloud-based operations, using technologies such as
Azure ML and Azure Functions. While our goal is to make the end-user experience (whether
our customers or our partners) as easy as possible, the models and technology which
power the cogs are complex and multi-faceted, predicting the performance of players and
teams in every game and season across an increasing range of sports.
Required experience:
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Experience with Python and object-oriented design
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Proven ability to use key Python data analytics packages such as NumPy, Pandas, sci-kit-learn
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Experience with Microsoft Azure tools & technologies, specifically Azure Functions, and Azure Machine Learning Service.
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Ubuntu server administration
The Best Part
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Love coming to work every day with a relaxed, hard-working team.
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Have the ability to make a difference to the future of a growing company, the fans, and the industry at large.
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Gain new knowledge and connections in the sports, investment, media and wagering spaces in Australia, the UK and the US.
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Incentives and benefits available to the right candidate.
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Potential for future advancement into executive leadership or otherwise.
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Agile workflow with new product advancements and initiatives every day.
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Central funky office location in Collingwood, Melbourne, plus flexible working arrangements available. Currently working from home during covid with a view of going back to the office ~Nov.
Salary is commensurate with experience. Please send your CV, a covering letter, and any supporting materials to jobs@thehypometer.com. This role can be offered on a full-time basis or as flexible work.
Into sports? Hypometer Technologies is looking for an expert Commercial Partnerships lead who has an exceptionally strong vision for the future of sports fan engagement, knows their way around the sports, wagering and media industries, and is driven above all else to generate value for our partners through innovative product integrations.
We are a young, progressive, company working with major players across the wagering, media and sports segments to deliver innovative sports analytics solutions. Internally,the company builds machine learning models for a growing list of 16+ sports plus horse racing, publishing predictions and stats across two industry-leading customer facing websites, Stats Insider and Fantasy Insider, as well as delivering high-quality sports-data products to business clients.
As someone with experience and diverse connections, you are excited to build upon the company’s commercial foundations while taking on the responsibility of generating new revenue streams and building the bridge between product and real life partnership opportunities. As someone with a creative mind, you will work closely with our founders and team to turn ideas into innovative product solutions that provide value to the client, end user, and Hypometer.
There are two key commercial markets for Hypometer Technologies products - media sites looking to enhance their sports coverage, often with the goal of selling branding rights or advertising space to wagering companies, and the wagering companies themselves - whether looking to advertise to our audience of sports fans on Stats Insider, or integrate our data and in-game products into their ecosystems.
The ideal candidate will be well connected in both of these markets, and have
existing networks both within Australia, and key international markets such as the
United States, the UK and Europe, directing our existing sales representatives in those
markets.
They will be familiar with the revenue models, and revenue share propositions, that are
common in the wagering industry, and have experience in seeing commercials through to
completion, working with stakeholders to set timelines, agreeing key legal terms,
and securing execution. You will interact with the client to ensure their concerns and
feedback is given due prominence within the product division, and be accentuated to
further sales opportunities to deliver deeper integrations.
Must-haves
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Hard-working, no bullshit, get it done attitude to everything you do.
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Solid track record in managing client relationships and creating opportunities alongside partners.
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Strong understanding of the various commercial models and structures, and ability to think outside of the box to meet the requirements of all parties.
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Connections into the relevant sectors to establish relationships with quality organisations and brands.
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Experience in sales - advertising, marketing, media/broadcast or otherwise.
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Ability to manage the contractual process, dealing with all parties.
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Belief in the company, product and opportunities presented by technological advances in sports data.
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Ready to learn about the technical ins and outs, limitations and possibilities of the Hypometer products.
Bonus knowledge
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Technical knowledge advantageous (e.g. basic steps of a data pipeline).
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General awareness of sports modelling and/or machine learning/AI.
The Best Part
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Love coming to work every day with a relaxed, hard-working team.
-
Have the ability to make a difference to the future of a growing company, the fans, and the industry at large.
-
Gain new knowledge and connections in the sports, investment, media and wagering spaces in Australia, the UK and the US.
-
Incentives and benefits available to the right candidate.
-
Potential for future advancement into executive leadership or otherwise.
-
Agile workflow with new product advancements and initiatives every day.
-
Central funky office location in Collingwood, Melbourne, plus flexible working arrangements available. Currently working from home during covid with a view of going back to the office ~Nov.
Salary is commensurate with experience. Please send your CV, a covering letter, and any supporting materials to jobs@thehypometer.com. This role can be offered on a full-time basis or as flexible work.
CONTRIBUTOR
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