With just one more round heavily impacted by State of Origin selections, the elite teams in the competition will start to put their foot down. The Roosters proved last year that building up and peaking at the right time is crucial to winning that last game of the season and they are the Stats Insider Futures Model's favourite for 2019 at 29.9%.

The Storm currently sit at the top of the table and are at 22.8% to go one better than they did last year.

At 15.7% the Rabbitohs are the only other club close to the two favourites while the Sharks and Raiders hover around 6%.

Unfortunately for the other ten sides in the competition, the Model isn't offering up much hope. Even the Sharks and Raiders are on thin ice. No club has ever come from outside the top four to win the premiership which more than likely leaves one of these two at shorter odds still.

Nevertheless, we will have a deeper look at the genuine premiership contenders and why each may or may not be the last team standing.

Sydney Roosters - 29.9%

In case you've been living under a rock and missed the only stat repeated more than "no team has conceded 50 points and won a premiership in the same season", no club in the NRL era has gone back-to-back.

The NRL is one of the closest sporting competitions in world sport and has crowed five different premiers over the last five seasons.

Can the Roosters be the first to win two on the trot?

The Stats Insider Model is bullish on their chances.

Despite dealing with injuries to players in key play-making positions for most of the season so far, the Roosters have won nine of their 13 games to be 3rd on the ladder - a better position than this time last season.

Their attack averages 24.8 points per game and still has room to improve. With Jake Friend only managing three appearances so far this season, Luke Keary now missing an extended period and Cooper Cronk in and out of the squad, we're yet to see the Roosters at their best with the ball in hand.

Defensively, they're a little behind on last season and somewhat unexpectedly at 5th conceding 17.8 points per game. Again, we can point to the lack of cohesion of players moving in and out of the squad as a contributing factor to that.

The Roosters have been there and done it all before and might be the best-placed team in recent years to go back-to-back. However, how they've travelled so far highlights why it is so difficult to accomplish the feat.

Premiers playing in the World Club Challenge impacts their preseason and opening rounds. That's one hurdle most clubs are unaccustomed too.

The next is plain old luck. It eventually runs out.

Injuries happen, but it can be to who and when that breaks a season. Friend looked primed for Origin football before his latest injury ruled him out. He may not return to the field until as late as Round 25 in which case his match fitness will be nowhere close to that required of a deep finals run. 

No team has a higher ceiling than the Roosters. If they're healthy and in form by September, that 29.9% the Model is handing out will sky-rocket. They've got a few rounds to navigate first, though.

Melbourne Storm - 22.8%

The Storm have the best defence in the NRL.

Conceding just 12 points per game, they're on track to end Round 25 having only let through 290 points all season. That would be the fewest points conceded in a year since they did it themselves in 2007 (277 points) and 2008 (282 points). Although, as we now know, those historically great defensive teams were playing over the salary cap.

Nevertheless, this group - who we assume are playing fairly - are putting themselves in a prime position to win the premiership.

The last two NRL premiers have had the best defence in the competition. The same goes for five of the last eight, six of the last nine and eight of the last 13. 

You get the picture.

Good defence = good chance at lifting the Provan-Summons Trophy. 

It's a formula that has worked for years, and one the Storm, in particular, have succeeded with. Without getting into which premierships have been kept in the record books, the Storm finished the season with the best defence in the NRL in three of the five occasions that they've won the Grand Final. 

Most teams concede their points on the edges, but the Storm have only allowed six tries to be scored away from the middle of the field all season. This team is special, and given the history of excellent defensive teams, the Storm will surely feature in the last game of the season. 

South Sydney Rabbitohs - 15.7%

The Rabbitohs are in a bit of a funk right now. State of Origin has taken its toll on the team and it's showing in the results. A turnaround is imminent, though.

Having recently asked whether or not the Rabbitohs should be optimistic about winning the 2019 premiership, the answer became clear.

Absolutely!

"With what the Rabbitohs produced to start the year, there is every chance that this losing run is just a blip on their radar centred on premiership glory."

Sure, they've lost three games in a row and have somewhat exposed their lack of depth. This is still a great football side. One that leads the NRL in running metres, scores 23.3 points per game (3rd) and concedes only 16.4 points per game the other way (3rd).

We go back to what the Roosters may need to win the premiership: luck.

Souths were lucky to gain the services of the greatest coach of all time over the summer. Getting Wayne Bennett to Redfern also had an influence on James Roberts rejoining the club.

Just last year, the Rabbitohs were unlucky to lose in Week 1 of the finals. A win would have given them the week off, allowed them to avoid the eventual premiers, and changed everything. 

If the Rabbitohs get lucky and become healthy at the right time, there is every chance they can claim the premiership this season.

This isn't saying "the Rabbitohs will be lucky to win", but a little could see the current 15.7% the Model is giving them receive a bump. 

Cronulla Sharks - 6.5%

The Sharks could be anything.

They've navigated the first 14 rounds with Matt Moylan, Shaun Johnson, Wade Graham and Aaron Woods all missing considerable time. That's roughly a third of their total salary cap on the sidelines. Nevertheless, they've kept their heads above water to win seven of their 13 games to sit 7th on the ladder and just two competition points out of 4th.

It's in attack where the Sharks can really improve and build into premiership contenders. They've split their tries down the left and right with 15 on each side so far. Their ability to score points is only going to get better in the coming weeks.

The Warriors played with the best right-side attack in the competition with Shaun Johnson there last season. His ability to make the right pass or use his footwork to bamboozle the defence makes him a dual threat. Poor John Asiata found out about the latter not once, but twice on Saturday.

They won't all come that easily, but this right-side Sharks attack is only just getting started.

Meanwhile, Graham's addition to the left has already worked wonders for the Sharks and New South Wales Blues. His brief stint alongside Bronson Xerri had everybody excited only for John Morris to switch the 18-year old back to the right side the following week. It feels like a matter of time before Xerri lines up on the left and Josh Morris on the right and the Sharks attack reaches its potential.

Without ignoring everything said about the Storm and defence, the Sharks will need to improve in that area. Conceding 19.7 points per game will get them in trouble. However, as regularly mentioned, cohesion plays a significant role in defence. On the edges, in particular.

As Johnson grows accustomed to the new teammates around him and Graham continues to return from his ACL injury, we can anticipate a more stringent defence.

If the attack comes along as expected, the Sharks will make some noise in September.

Canberra Raiders - 6%

The Raiders may sit higher on the ladder than the Sharks right now, but they're the true smokey of this premiership race.

After blowing so many leads in 2018 and showing little sign or ability for promoting a change in fortune, the Raiders were written off heading into the 2019 season.

Boy, how wrong was that idea.

The Green Machine look a different team.

Ricky Stuart is a different man.

While they did manage to almost lose from 20-0 in front in Round 14, the collapses have all but left Canberra's game. Stuart's meltdowns and referee blaming appear to have left the building as well.

Never short of points, the Raiders average 20.5 points per game. The turnover in the halves and hooker has put a lid on their ceiling with the ball in hand, but as they become healthy and decide on a first-choice halfback moving forward, we should see the Raiders inch closer to their NRL-leading 22.5 points per game in 2018.

The major turnaround has come on the back of their defensive improvements. Only the Storm concede fewer than the Raiders 14.3 points per game. 

Elliott Whitehead remains one of the most underrated players in the competition. He rarely has a bad game and holds up whichever side of the field he's sent. Fellow Englishman, John Bateman, has already secured the buy of the season award. He's been brilliant in both attack and defence and carries the unflappable mentality the club so desperately lacked without him last year.

The pair have locked down the Canberra edges and their impact is being felt across the field. 

The Raiders could well have been sitting higher at this point if not for injuries to Bateman, Josh Hodgson, Joey Leiluia and Jordan Rapana amongst other depth and role players.

It's those injuries that threaten to derail the Raiders come September.

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