Should the Rabbitohs fans be optimistic about winning the 2019 Premiership?

The South Sydney Rabbitohs looked like the best team in the NRL throughout the opening 11 rounds. Their 10-1 record was enough to keep them two points clear at the top of the ladder and Wayne Bennett even cracked a few smiles.

Cody Walker was the form player in the game and the NRL's leading try-scorer. His partnership with Adam Reynolds had the Bunnies leading the NRL in scoring at 25.6 points per game. The Burgess Brothers were doing their thing through the middle for Souths to lead the NRL in running metres.

A month later, and Souths have lost three on the trot, Walker's State of Origin career looks all but over after just 60 minutes, Reynolds is out injured, and they just played their first game without a Burgess on the field since Round 8 in 2012.

It's not panic stations for the Bunnies, but the last five premiership winning teams have travelled through the State of Origin period with a combined 23-6 record. The deeper teams tend to be there on Grand Final day, and the last month has exposed Souths Sydney's lack.

So, the Origin period hasn't been kind. Can the Rabbitohs build themselves back up?

They've got a first-choice 17 stacked full of talent, have just added James Roberts, and Bennett sits in the coaches box.

Of course they can.

They will.

We only need to look at what the Bunnies were doing well before this dip in form to know that - if they're healthy - they will more than likely bounce back into the group of favourites for the premiership.

Walker was filling the highlight reels, but it was the work of the forwards through the middle that allowed him to feature so often.

Leading the competition in running metres with 1,612 per game, the Bunnies aren't short of go-forward through the middle.

Sam Burgess has moved out to the edge but still leads the way with 142 running metres per game. His brother, Thomas, is adding another 128 running metres - his highest average since 2014. Tevita Tatola has almost doubled his output on 2018 to average 103 running metres per game in a breakout season. Cameron Murray's shift to lock has seen him earn a New South Wales jumper on the back of 120 metres per game. Meanwhile, Liam Knight has become a serviceable interchange prop while averaging a career-high 95 metres per game.

Few teams can compete with the Rabbitohs through the middle, and historically, that translates into premiership success.

While running metres have turned into premierships over the last five years, it's defence that has held the key to success over the long-term.

Of the 21 NRL premiers, 16 have finished the regular season with a top three defence. Outside of North Queensland's (5th-best defence) Golden Point win over Brisbane (3rd-best defence) in 2015, every premiership winning team since 2005 has played with a top three defence.

Right now, the Rabbitohs are third in defence conceding just 16.4 points per game. They were second while conceding only 15 points per game before allowing the opposition to score 26, 20 and 19 points in rounds 12, 13 and 14 respectively.

With so many players out on State of Origin duty, it's no surprise to see the Souths defence take a hit. What's encouraging is the fact there is room for improvement beyond the 15 points per game they conceded throughout the first 11 rounds.

After looking through where every team needed to improve on their defence, one section of the field stood out for the Rabbitohs:

The one area they'll look to improve on is around the left edge. Souths go against the general trend of teams conceding more on the right edge than any other area of the field by allowing 42.8% of their tries in through the left.

One reason for this stands out straight away. Souths have sent four different centres out there already this season, two of which are traditionally backrowers.

So, the injury to Braidon Burns has had a significant impact on the cohesion of South Sydney's left edge defence. Add the Origin outs and the shuffles that come with it, and the recent dodgy defence can be explained away relatively easily.

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As players return from representative duties and others recover from injuries, the South Sydney defence will be where we see the most notable improvement. 

That improvement may not be far away either.

With Burns completing training and poised to make a return soon, everything is coming up Milhouse for the Rabbitohs.

Roberts is growing more comfortable in his new surroundings and searching for his Origin form. Reynolds has also completed training and is expected to return soon. Walker's hopes of returning to the Blues squad appear to be dashed, and as unfortunate as that is for him, the 29-year old and refocus on being one of the best five-eighths in the game at club level.

Meanwhile, Sam and Thomas Burgess have had their surgeries at a point in the season where they will miss the fewest games and will have at least a month to regain match fitness before the finals.

The State of Origin period can skew opinion and make things appear worse than they really are.

This South Sydney three-game losing streak looks like a classic case. 

Of course, losing a quarter of your side to Origin duty has an impact. Worse still, it shattered the confidence of perhaps the clubs best player in 2019. Nevertheless, their dominance through the middle and potential in defence are enough reasons to suggest a turn around is just around the corner.

With what the Rabbitohs produced to start the year, there is every chance that this losing run is just a blip on their radar centred on premiership glory.

The Stats Insider Model has them at 15.7% to win the premiership behind the Storm (22.8%) and Roosters (29.9%). That number could rise this week with the Model appointing Souths as 57% favourites to end their losing streak this Thursday against the Tigers.

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