The NBA's Moving Parts: Eastern Conference

There's no question that the Bucks, Raptors, 76ers and Celtics are battling it out for the right to play the Warriors in the NBA Finals. Steph Curry and Kevin Durant are spearheading what some think is the greatest team of all time towards a third consecutive championship and fourth in five years.

Unsurprisingly, the Stats Insider NBA model is simulating a Golden State title in a mammoth 48.2% of championship simulations. However, that number is already down from 48.6% this time last week, as a result of the recent player movement in the East.

The Bucks remain steady on 9.6% with the Raptors receiving the slightest of 0.1% bumps to 7.5%. Meanwhile, at the expense of the 76ers' 0.3% increase to 6.1%, the Celtics have taken a 0.4% hit to drop down to 5.2%.

A lot can change between now and April, but some teams are better positioned than others. Here, we take a look at the trade deadline moves for the Eastern Conference contenders and what they mean for their prospective championship aspirations.

Bucks Add Mirotic

Another three-point threat to supplement Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Mirotic is an ideal fit for the Bucks. He will slot seamlessly into Milwaukee's five-out offence and further spread the floor and open up room for a driving Antetokounmpo.

Shooting 36.8% from beyond the arc on 7.2 attempts per game, Mirotic demands attention. His defender simply can't sag off to double Giannis, or clog the zone, therefore, the lane is left open for Antetokounmpo to take his man one-on-one. Should the defence cave-in to help allowing Antetokounmpo to kick it out, they will have to eat the 40% of three-point field goals Mirotic is hitting when he's open.

Just look at Mirotic's heat map, and that of the Bucks as a team so far this season. He's going to fit like a glove.

Mirotic was quick to highlight the fact he's not only a shooter during his introductory press conference:

"There’s much more I can do, obviously. This year has been my best year for rebounding. I am just not a shooter. Most of the guys think I can just shoot the ball, but there’s much more to my game."

Mirotic's 8.3 rebounds and 15% rebound percentage this season are both career highs.

This is a low-risk, high-reward move for the Bucks. It's more than likely that Mirotic quickly finds his feet and contributes to the NBA's fourth-best offence. Should the unexpected happen and there are issues acclimatising to his new team, he will, at worst, be able to fill the gap left behind by the rarely used Jason Smith and Thon Maker.

Raptors Roll The Dice On Gasol

Worries about how Kawhi Leonard might transition from the Spurs to the Raptors were washed away following Toronto's 20-4 start to the season. Now they look to insert veteran Marc Gasol into the lineup with 25 games left, before what they hope is a run through to the Finals.

Adding Gasol increases the likelihood of that NBA Finals appearance.

The Spaniard's unquestionable motivation to win a title might be the most important consideration. Gasol waived his trade kicker, which sees him give up $1.28 million, but allows the Raptors to save $3.2 million in luxury tax. Before even stepping foot on the floor, Gasol had Raptors fans on his side.

When it comes to what Gasol can do on the court, those same fans begin to tremble with excitement.

An astute play-maker, the seven-footer doesn't need to put up many shots to be effective in the offence. He's averaged over four assists per game in each of his last three seasons. It's this ability and willingness as a passer that will have the Raptors front office relatively comfortable with their decision in trading for Gasol despite his poor scoring statistics so far this season.

While his scoring is down from 17.2 to 15.6 points per game this season, Gasol is able to make up for it on the defensive end.

He's not the perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate he once was (he won it in 2013), but Gasol's arrival will still trigger an improvement for the Raptors on that end of the floor. Defending another Eastern Conference powerhouse big man, Philadelphia's Joel Embiid, in particular, will have been a significant reason why the Raptors targeted Gasol.

Moves by contenders are all about matchups at this point in the season. With Embiid seemingly dominating each and every team in front of him, the fact he's only scored 8.5 points on the 54 possessions Gasol has defended him on this season, is promising. Embiid is shooting a solid 47.8% this season, but only 33.3% when guarded by Gasol.

With an Embiid stopper, the Raptors are close to unstoppable themselves in the East.

What could hold them back is a lack of chemistry and cohesion. Trying to keep Gasol, Pascal Siakam and Serge Ibaka all minute-happy, won't be easy. None of them deserves to come off the bench. It's unlikely but possible: Gasol's addition could cause the sort of rift that takes away all the progress the Raptors have made this season.

However, with Gasol clearly motivated to win, it looks as though he won't have a problem should he be asked to take somewhat of a back seat to help the team succeed.

There are no doubts about it. This is a great move by the Raptors. One that doesn't carry too much risk. It's one we may look back on as the reason for their place in the NBA Finals.

76ers Go All-In

By trading for Tobias Harris with just four months remaining on his $14.8M contract, the 76ers are going all-in on the next phase of "The Process."

Both Harris and Jimmy Butler will have opportunities to sign elsewhere for the 2019-20 NBA season. Disaster will strike the franchise if both opt to leave. However, with Harris' addition and what it does for the team, there's a good chance both stick around to build on whatever foundation of success they can achieve over the remainder of this season.

Before the trade deadline, the 76ers were a good team in the East, but not yet great. The Raptors, Bucks, and what most people assume the Celtics will eventually become, still sat above them in the conference pecking order.

Now, they're joint-favourites to take out the East alongside the Raptors at $3.50 on TAB's NBA Futures market, and for good reason.

Harris is the starting forward the 76ers have been looking for to play alongside Butler, Joel Emiid, Ben Simmons and JJ Redick.

His versatility on offence fits in nicely with his ability to operate on and off the ball - an important consideration when playing beside the ball-dominant Butler and Simmons. He can work the pick and roll, act as a cutter and screen-setter, and he's a solid shooter. Whatever the 76ers need each night, Harris can provide.

As the main man on a Clippers team lacking superstar quality, Harris produced 20.9 points, 7.9 rebounds and 2.7 assists while shooting 49.5% from the field and 43.4% from beyond the arc. Per game. Playing with three current All-Stars will see his per game counting stats drop, but it's those shooting numbers the 76ers recruited so hard for, and need him to maintain.

Embiid has made it known that he isn't interested in shooting the long-ball as regularly as he has done this season (four 3pa per game). Harris won't only ease Embiid's load on the perimeter. The gravitational pull his shot has on a defensive shift allows Embiid to spend more time on the block, also freeing up space for the Cameroonian to work. And unlike starting predecessor, Mike Muscala - who is now a Laker thanks to another trade following his move in the Harris deal - Harris can put the ball on the floor and burn closeouts.

The former Clipper and fringe All-Star adds the extra dimension the 76ers lacked before the deadline. Backup big man, Boban Marjanovic and depth wing, Mike Scott also arrived in the trade with Harris, but don't move the needle quite like Philadelphia's new starting power forward will. They are now genuine contenders for the Eastern Conference crown.

The 76ers have outgrown the process.

Struggling Celtics

The Celtics traded away Jabari Bird just before the deadline. He hasn't played a minute this season and probably won't register any with the Hawks either.

Boston will now look to make their run to the NBA Finals with what they've got. So far, what they've got hasn't been up to scratch.

Having just peeled off an encouraging 9-1 stretch, the Celtics then succumbed to two embarrassing losses while also losing Kyrie Irving to a knee sprain. Now 35-21 and the 5th seed in the East, the Celtics are reeling.

With frustrations building, Marcus Morris couldn't resist the urge to unleash some home truth's on his teammates, just three weeks after Kyrie Irving did the same:

“I mean for me, it’s not really about the loss, but the attitudes that we’re playing with. Guys are hanging their heads … it’s not fun. We’re not competing at a high level. Even though we’re winning, it’s not fun. I don’t see the joy in the game. … When I look at us, I see a bunch of individuals.”

With the locker room already on tenterhooks halfway through February, the Celtics are running out of time to put the pieces together to make a run for the Finals.

Much of the excitement around this season steamed from Gordon Hayward's return from injury, and Jayson Tatum's improvement in his second year in the league.

Neither have lived up to the expectations.

Hayward hasn't been able to make the leap many thought he may have by this point in the season. His numbers haven't developed as the season has progressed, and expecting him to be the difference come playoff time, is setting the Celtics up to fail.

Meanwhile, Tatum hasn't been able to kick on as expected in his sophomore season. His points per game may have risen from 13.9 to 16.4, but his shooting%, offensive box plus-minus, value over replacement and win shares have all dropped. He's not playing the role of Robin well enough alongside Irving's Batman for the Celtics to reach their potential.

Without Hayward and Tatum improving and, in turn, repairing the fractured and frustrated relationships forming in the locker room, this might be it for the Celtics.

An underperforming and disappointing team that will take a step back to sit behind the Raptors, Bucks and 76ers entering the 2019-20 season. Unless, of course, they prise a certain big man away from New Orleans.

We can't rule the Celtics out of winning the East just yet. This is the NBA and anything can happen. But right now, it's a three horse race and Boston is being left behind.

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