The Masters Golf PGA Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips for 2023
Last updated: Apr 10, 2023, 1:31PM | Published: Apr 4, 2023, 10:14AM
The 2023 Masters Tournament is set to take place at the famous Augusta National golf course in Augusta, Georgia, this week, with a host of Australians hoping to end the week wearing the green jacket.
After simulating all four rounds of the 2023 Masters tournament 10,000 times, we've found the best bets to make on another huge week of professional golf action.
Last year’s tournament was won by Scottie Scheffler, who again enters as the most in-form golfer in the world and one of the betting favourites with the bookies.
This year's Masters tournament will also see Australian star Cameron Smith facing off against the PGA Tour’s best players for the first time since he left for LIV Golf in August 2022.
Stats Insider, which is Australia's leader in predictive sports analytics, has golf predictions, tips, and betting odds throughout the PGA season. Below are our betting tips for The Masters.
Who will win? The Masters 2023
Using cutting-edge computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated this week's Masters golf tournament 10,000 times.
When looking at the favourites this week, our independent predictive analytics model gives Scottie Scheffler the best chance of winning The Masters with a 13.2% probability, followed by Jon Rahm with a 10.1% chance of winning and Rory McIlroy at 7.2%.
MORE: The Masters Simulated 10,000 Times
The Masters 2023 Odds in Australia
Below are the odds in Australia for the 2023 Masters tournament, including the odds for the outright winner and to finish in the top 10.
Outright Winner Odds
| Player | Odds to Win The Masters | Bookie |
|---|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy | $8.25 | TopSport |
| Scottie Scheffler | $8.50 | TAB |
| Jon Rahm | $11 | TAB |
| Jordan Spieth | $18 | TopSport |
| Patrick Cantlay | $21 | TAB |
| Justin Thomas | $23 | Ladbrokes |
| Cameron Smith | $23 | TAB |
| Tony Finau | $26 | Betr |
| Dustin Johnson | $26 | Neds |
| Jason Day | $29 | Ladbrokes |
TopSport currently has the best odds for Rory McIlroy to win at $8.25, with TAB offering Scottie Scheffler at $8.50 and Jon Rahm at $11.
Top 10 Finish Odds
| Player | Odds to Finish in Top 10 | Bookie |
|---|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy | $1.80 | Ladbrokes |
| Scottie Scheffler | $1.80 | TopSport |
| Jon Rahm | $1.95 | TopSport |
| Jordan Spieth | $2.75 | Sportsbet |
| Patrick Cantlay | $2.80 | TAB |
| Justin Thomas | $3.00 | Neds |
| Cameron Smith | $3.10 | PointsBet |
| Tony Finau | $3.25 | TopSport |
| Jason Day | $3.25 | PointsBet |
| Dustin Johnson | $3.40 | Sportsbet |
Ladbrokes currently has the best odds for Rory McIlroy to finish in the top 10 at The Masters 2023 at $1.80, with TopSport offering $1.80 for Scottie Scheffler and $1.95 for Jon Rahm.
The Masters 2023 Betting Tips
Stats Insider’s betting tips for The Masters are based on market-leading simulations and betting expertise to provide you with the best possible advice every time.
Best outright winner bet: Scottie Scheffler at $8.50 with TopSport (13.5% probability, 1.4% edge)
Best dark horse tip: Max Homa at $41 with TopSport (2.3% edge)
Best Australian to bet on: Cameron Smith at $23 with Betr (3.9% probability)
Best bet to finish top 10: Max Homa at $3.90 with Betr (9.3% edge)
After simulating the tournament 10,000 times, we have then matched our probabilities against the odds available with each of the biggest bookies in the country to determine exactly where the value lies this week.
Taking advantage of the edges seen on Stats Insider is crucial to achieving long-term profitability as a sports bettor.
The Masters Best Bet 2023
Betting on world number one Scottie Scheffler to win is our preferred option due to the 1.4% edge found when comparing our data-driven probabilities to the best odds currently on offer at TopSport.
Not only do we have a 1.4% edge on Scheffler, but he is also the most likely player to win this week according to our model, beating out the favourite with the bookies, Rory McIlroy.
It's not often that our model's most likely winner matches up with an edge against the market, making Scottie Scheffler the best bet to win The Masters 2023 this week.
Scheffler is looking to go back-to-back and enters this week in arguably even better form than he was when he won The Masters just 12 months ago.
The Masters Dark Horse 2023
Although Scottie Scheffler is the most likely winner of The Masters this week, the player who our model has detected as having the biggest edge at The Masters 2023 is Max Homa.
At odds of $41 with TopSport, punters can gain a 2.3% edge on Homa, with our fair odds equating to $21.30.
These fair odds have Homa as the sixth most likely winner, with the bookies not even rating him in the top 10 chances to win this week.
Homa has only made the cut once in three attempts at The Masters, with that one time coming in 2022 when he finished T48.
Since then, though, the world number five has won three PGA tournaments and finished in the top 10 an impressive seven times.
With Homa improving at a rapid rate, it's unlikely we will see his odds as high as $41 at a major tournament again.
Best Australian to Bet on Masters 2023
If you're looking to keep it local with your bets on The Masters this week, then the most likely player to give you a winning ticket is Cameron Smith.
Smith has a good history at Augusta, having played six times for four top 10s, including a T5, T3, and T2.
After moving to LIV Golf in August last year, Smith hasn't shown his strongest form, but with a major on the line and a point to prove, it wouldn't surprise many people in the world of golf if he was right in the mix come Sunday.
After Smith, the next most likely Australian to win The Masters this week is the in-form Jason Day, with a probability of 2.4% and best odds of $29 at Ladbrokes.
Since the beginning of the current season in September last year, Day has played 12 tournaments, with 10 of those seeing him finish T21 or better.
Best Top 10 Bet Masters 2023
As for finishing in the top 10, the best value again comes from betting on Max Homa.
Our model rates Homa as having a 35% chance of finishing in the top 10, giving us a massive 9.7% edge on the $3.95 odds currently available at Betr.
Homa has taken his game to the next level over the last 12 months, with a strong finish in a major the next step towards him becoming one of the top few golfers in the world.
Another important stat to look at here is that Homa is currently second on the PGA Tour for the longest active made-cut streak, with 14 in a row. The only player with a longer active streak is Xander Schauffele, with 20.
More About PGA Golf 2023
The Masters, at Augusta National in Augusta, GA, will have a combined purse of $15,000,000, with the course totalling 7,545 yards and playing to a par of 72.
Stats Insider is your home for betting on the 2023 golf season, with the latest golf betting information, tips for every 2023 PGA tournament, golf rankings, and a golf H2H match-up tool for each tournament.
All odds and probabilities are correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
(Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
