Punters Corner: "Barring injury that's just free money for mine"

We’ve had some bad beats this season but last week was a real kick in the Sidebottoms.

Jack Gunston kicked three behinds and one didn’t even make the distance (was paying 6.50 for 3 and 21’s for 4!) and Jordan Dawson could have had 3 (at 50’s!) soooooo easily last week. Mitch Brown had 2 before half time (12’s for 3 goals) as well before being pushed into defence for much of the second half.

The ball striking is solid people, the putts are just about to drop I can taste it!

For the final Friday night of the regular season, we’re going relatively hard on some disposal multi’s that should set up our weekend (and finals series hopefully).

Magpies v Bombers Disposal Multis

No Heppell and no Sidebottom, two teams who like to play pretty fast and a picture-perfect forecast at the MCG – this should be a high disposal game for the prime movers and if Chris Mayne can play the role we think he will tonight, then we could have a very nice evening at the front bar!  

The first multi below is one we're hitting harder because, barring injury, that's just free money for mine. 

  • Pendlebury, Crisp, Merrett, Shiel 25+ @ 5.00 (4x stake)
  • Crisp, Merret 30+, Shiel, Pendlebury 25+. Mayne 20+ @ 22.50
  • Crisp, Merret, Shiel 30+, Pendlebury 25+, Mayne 20+ @ 45.50

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PGA Tour Championship

Round 1 is over and there is some value in the Outright markets heading into the second round with Paul Casey a great EW bet at $34's just 4 back. No one hit it better in Round 1 but again Casey just couldn't get the putts to drop (ranked #26 in the 30-man field for SG Putting R1). If he has one or two rounds where he breaks even on the greens, let alone gains, he will contend here. Most EW bets pay Top 3 post R1 at 1/4 odds making him 8.50 for the 'place'. 

Patrick Cantlay is the other guy I'd really be looking at after R1. He couldn't get off the tee (#26th OTT) and was literally the worst putter in the field (ranked #30 SG Putting R1) which is very unlike him. Just 2 back with 54 holes to play at $10's - I'm liking that quite a lot given how easily he can improve that putter. No one hit their approaches better in R1.

Nick Larkey, Cam Zurhaar 4+, 5+, 6+ Goals

If the rain stays away in Tassie then the Kangas talls could really feats here with no May down back for a Demons team that will be looking to off-season holidays more so than defensive assignments. We've seen in the past the Kangas just press go and murder teams and this one looks likely to end in a little kick in the nads for the Demons to finish off their horror season. At 7.00 (4), 19.00 (5) and 67.50 (6) for Zurhaar and 8.50 (4), 24.00 (5) and 90.00 (6) for Larkey the front bar are pressing go if the rain looks likely to stay away. 

  • Larkey, Zurhaar 3 @10.50
  • Zurhaar 4, Larkey 3 @ 24.00
  • Larkey 4, Zurhaar 3 @ 25.50

Harry Himmelberg, Jeremy Finlayson 4+, 5+, 6+ Goals

The Suns have no (zero!) key defence and will have absolutely clocked off already for 2019. The Giants on the other hand are coming off an absolute pasting last week, and every one of their 22 will be keen to cement their place in September. This should get ugly fast and whilst Cameron should go nuts too, there is no value for him. I expect Himmelberg (5.00 (4), 9.00 (5), 22.00 (6), Finlayson (7.00 (4), 17.00 (5), 51.50 (6) and Cameron to give 20 goals a nudge between them at Metricon on Saturday.

  • Cameron, Finlayson 4, Himmelberg 3 @ 28.50
  • Finlayson 5, Himmelberg 3, Hill 2 @ 94.00
  • Cameron 5, Himmelberg, Finlayson 3 @ 20.00

Drop a comment at the bottom of the page (or on Twitter / Facebook) to tell us where you think the value is this week 👇

Hedge

Cruelly denied sporting glory due to recurring shin splint complaints and an aversion to warm-up laps, Hedge now spends his days golfing, fishing the leaves out of the Club 20 pools and identifying value plays in PGA, AFL, AFLW and T20. All you really need to know about him is he's more than comfortable taking 3I off the tee on a Par 5, and more than capable of pulling driver off the deck second shot.

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