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Exploring High and Low Volatility Markets in the Premier League

Have you ever considered what the Premier League's highest and lowest betting markets are in terms of volatility? 

What Is High and Low Volatility in Betting?

To start with, let's look at what high and low volatility mean in terms of Premier League betting markets. If you're betting on a Premier League market with low volatility, you are wagering on an outcome with lower odds, as it is likely to occur more often. 

Conversely, in a high-volatility Premier League market with greater odds, results will be less frequent but have the potential for a much bigger payout. 

If that sounds complicated, then just imagine how online slot machines, better known as online pokies in New Zealand and Australia, work in order to understand the concept better.

If you're playing online slots or pokies with low volatility, you're likely to see smaller wins paid out more regularly in games such as Da Vinci Diamonds and Fortune Coin.

On the other hand, if you're playing ones with high volatility, the wins might be less routine, but when they do occur, they can be substantial, which is the case in slot games like Chicago Gold and Mustang Money.

With these foundations in place, you might ask what the high- and low-volatility markets are in the Premier League? 

Low-Volatility Markets

The Premier League markets with the lowest volatility are the match-winner option, double chance, and draw no bet (DNB).

With the match-winner market, you are choosing between the outcomes of win, draw, and lose. While there are instances when these odds can be higher in close contests and occasions when upsets do happen, you will normally land a small return when you bet on, say, Manchester City to beat strugglers Sheffield United

The same is true of the double chance market, as you are safeguarding against a stalemate by betting on a team to win or at least draw. The odds may be lower, but you can still expect a modest payout when you back established teams like Arsenal at home in the double chance market against most opponents.

The DNB market also falls under low volatility, as you only have to avoid a defeat to keep your stake; in the event of a win, you will, of course, be paid out. It's an ideal market to use when two teams are expected to cancel each other.

High Volatility 

The Premier League's high volatility markets are correct score and first goalscorer.

Comparatively speaking, it might be relatively straightforward to pick the team that could win a game, but predicting the corresponding correct score is far from it and the odds reflect as much due to the numerous possible scoreline combinations.

Additionally, it also only takes a second to score a goal or rule it out these days, as the video assistant referee (VAR) often does in the modern game. In other words, there are a host of variables to negotiate when correctly calling the correct score of a game.

The first goalscorer market also offers higher volatility, as you have to select the player who will open the scoring in any contest. With 22 players on the field, you need a degree of luck to land a successful bet in this market.

Indeed, irrespective of whether the goalkeepers are unlikely to make the net bulge first, an early corner might see one of the towering defenders score instead of a striker in red-hot form. Like the correct score market, returns might be sporadic but when they do come, they will result in a handsome profit.

The verdict 

While there are markets that can offer up far greater chance of winning, it's vitally important to note that football can be unpredictable. Of course, the irony is that it is this same uncertainty that provides the chance to win big on the higher volatility markets. Overall, embracing a balanced approach to both high- and low-volatility markets is crucial for minimising losses and maximising enjoyment.

Stats Insider

Stats Insider, Australia's leading predictive analytics website, offers Australian sports fans innovative tools and content to enhance their enjoyment of major sporting events both domestically and internationally. Our goal is to transform the sports fan experience by providing readily accessible, data-driven content for sports enthusiasts like us.

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