He was ridiculed for the bet because it was, at the time he placed it, a ‘bold move’ that would make Jason Bateman double-take. 

The bet was ‘Lions flag into Luke Hodge Norm Smith’ at 500-1 and it seemed to those of us there at Club 20 on the eve of R22, a completely stupid waste of money.

But with each passing week the odds started to shorten slightly and when Hodgey wound back the clock against the Tigers in that first week of the finals, Roody started to look like a crazy punting genius!   

Of course, we know now that the Lions went out in straight sets, but the question of how much juice remains in the Norm Smith futures markets was the hot topic of conversation between the beer taps at Club 20 yesterday. 

Turns out, there is a little bit there still!

A Very Dusty Price

The Tigers are heavy favourites to beat the Cats this week and go on to win the big one, which puts Dusty Martin at a (ridiculous) $7 favorite in the market. 

He was nearly unanimously voted down by the assembled Club 20 punters as a big fat avoid-like-the-plague play at this short price, especially considering that even if they beat the Cats, there looms the prospect of a heavy De-Boer tag coming his way if GWS make it through. 

Bookmakers have baked Tiger and Magpie victories (and then a subsequent Tigers GF win) into this market a little too much, so much so they have burnt a couple of guys who look absolutely ripe for the betting.

Patrick Dangerfield - $21

As it was rightly pointed out (several times) last night at Club 20, if Geelong win Friday night then this market will reopen Saturday morning with Danger at about 5-1, maybe shorter. 

No only that, but it will also mean they have beaten the Tigers and therefore knocked Dusty off the Norm Smith board, so taking Danger at the juicy $21’s here looks probably the best value in the whole market. 

Even if you’re having 2, 3 even 4 bets here, he is worth the early investment at these odds.

Brodie Grundy - $17

I see this bet as a bit of a Danger-lay type bet where if the Tigers do cruise into the granny, we can still have good access to the top of the Norm Smith board on the big day, at big odds. 

Like Dangerfield above, Grundy’s price will plummet should the Magpies make it through on Saturday night but unlike Danger, Collingwood are heavy favourites to do so. 

If we assume that the Magpies go through, then either Danger or Dusty will be the shortest priced favourite but that will also mean that Grundy will get Toby Nankervis or Stanley/Blicsavs (or Jed Bews, who really knows) as a match up and make no mistake, Grundy will own whoever he is up against. 

That 17-1 bet will shorten by half before Monday should the Maggies go through and taking both Grundy and Danger at these bigger odds gives us a pretty good chance to not just be alive in this market on GF day but well over the odds. 

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Jeremy Cameron - $51

The 2019 Coleman Medalist would need a 3-4 goal, 20 disposal game to topple the midfielders and he is more than capable of producing it but the big appeal here for Cameron is if GWS do make it through then Grundy is off the board AND De Boer is shutting down one of the oppositions best (Danger or Dusty) so taking Cameron is not as silly as it sounds and at the big odds. 

Oh yeah, and he kicked 10.9 on the Tigers this season including 7.5 on Vlastuin/Astbury early on and another 3.4 on Broad in R17.

Two other guys who popped for us for the Giants were Nick Haynes ($81) who has Norm Smith written all over him in a low-scoring affair where he drifts back and chops off attack after attack, and Tim Taranto ($81) whose odds seem too juicy to pass up given he is capable of a 30+/2 goal game any given week and is in that perfect spot for the Giants where he won’t get opposition attention but if his teammates do, he only gets better on the stat-sheet. 

Dion Prestia - $17

If you have to have some pre-prelim exposure to the Tigers, or you are projecting them to win this week and for Martin to receive either De Boer or Pendlebury attention next week, then the meatball is your man. 

Starts to get pretty thin though taking Prestia with a ‘tigers to win against giants / Dusty to have no impact’ grand final script, but his price will take a good tumble if the Tigers win on Friday night. I’m thinking he probably gets to about $9’s come bounce depending on whether Grundy is in the market.