AFL Brownlow Medal 2021

Stats Insider 2021 Brownlow Medal PredictionsStats Insider 2021 Brownlow Medal Predictions
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Fair Odds
(With Dead Heats)
Percentages
(Including Ties)
Player
undefinedOliver WinesO. Wines
undefinedMarcus BontempelliM. Bontempelli
undefinedClayton OliverC. Oliver
undefinedJack SteeleJ. Steele
undefinedSam WalshS. Walsh
undefinedTouk MillerT. Miller*
undefinedChristian PetraccaC. Petracca
undefinedTom MitchellT. Mitchell
undefinedDarcy ParishD. Parish
undefinedZachary MerrettZ. Merrett
undefinedRory LairdR. Laird
undefinedJarryd LyonsJ. Lyons
undefinedJack MacraeJ. Macrae
undefinedTravis BoakT. Boak
undefinedTom McDonaldT. McDonald
undefinedChristian SalemC. Salem
undefinedAdam TreloarA. Treloar
undefinedJosh DunkleyJ. Dunkley
undefinedJack BillingsJ. Billings
undefinedErrol GuldenE. Gulden
undefinedJaeger O'MearaJ. O'Meara
undefinedZak ButtersZ. Butters
undefinedJake LeverJ. Lever
undefinedLachlan ShollL. Sholl
undefinedShane EdwardsS. Edwards
undefinedNoah AndersonN. Anderson
undefinedBailey SmithB. Smith
undefinedTim MembreyT. Membrey
undefinedLiam JonesL. Jones
undefinedMax KingM. King
undefinedKarl AmonK. Amon
undefinedLuke DunstanL. Dunstan
undefinedHarry McKayH. McKay
undefinedAliir AliirA. Aliir
undefinedTom LiberatoreT. Liberatore
undefinedBayley FritschB. Fritsch
undefinedJeremy CameronJ. Cameron
undefinedBrandon EllisB. Ellis
undefinedLachie NealeL. Neale
undefinedJosh BruceJ. Bruce
undefinedZak JonesZ. Jones
undefinedEd CurnowE. Curnow
undefinedCharlie DixonC. Dixon
undefinedSteven MayS. May
undefinedPeter WrightP. Wright
undefinedPatrick CrippsP. Cripps
undefinedBrandan ParfittB. Parfitt
undefinedWillem DrewW. Drew
undefinedBailey DaleB. Dale
undefinedCaleb DanielC. Daniel*
Winner 
Bet365 
Value 
Average Votes 
Top 5 
Top 10 
Lead after Round 5 
Lead after Round 10 
Win Team 
34.9%
Value Identified
27.4
85.1%
98.8%
6.2%
8.1%
98.1%
23.3%
Value Identified
26.5
85.4%
99.0%
8.6%
37.1%
98.3%
23.1%
26.2
77.6%
97.7%
15.4%
39.9%
79.7%
16.4%
25.3
70.5%
96.7%
2.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
7.6%
Value Identified
24
55.5%
94.4%
1.0%
3.8%
100.0%
4.7%
22.8
43.6%
89.0%
<0.1%
0.8%
100.0%
3.6%
22
36.1%
84.0%
12.2%
2.1%
25.8%
3.4%
Value Identified
22.4
38.5%
86.8%
8.6%
0.5%
100.0%
1.1%
21.3
24.5%
80.6%
<0.1%
2.2%
73.9%
0.5%
18.3
10.2%
45.1%
0.4%
0.2%
32.4%
0.4%
18.6
8.6%
47.0%
2.3%
0.3%
98.5%
<0.1%
16.7
2.7%
26.2%
<0.1%
0.3%
56.5%
<0.1%
15.5
2.3%
17.6%
3.7%
3.8%
2.5%
<0.1%
17.2
2.5%
32.0%
1.0%
<0.1%
3.1%
<0.1%
6.9
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
6.5
<0.1%
<0.1%
0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
5.5
<0.1%
<0.1%
1.0%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
2.9
<0.1%
<0.1%
0.2%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
4.3
<0.1%
<0.1%
0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
3.4
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
7.5
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
3.7
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
1.8
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
2.6
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
2.3
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
6.3
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
6
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
3.1
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
1.6
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
3.8
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
8.9
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
7.4
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
6
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
5.9
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
5.9
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
5.5
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
5.2
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
5.1
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
5
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
4.9
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
4.7
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
4.6
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
4.4
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
4.2
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
4.2
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
4.1
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
4.1
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
4.1
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
4
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
3.8
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
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* - Ineligible to Win Brownlow Medal

The Stats Insider 2021 AFL Brownlow Medal predictions are here.

Our algorithm aims to identify the players who the umpires officiating that game would have selected as the best three players, and in which order.

When modelling the Brownlow Medal, the Stats Insider data analytics gather hundreds of data points from every AFL game between 2014-2020. This data is used to train a machine learning regression model on past votes to determine which variables were those most likely to catch the eye of the umpires, and thus correlate to Brownlow Medal votes for that game.

Stats Insider has previously modelled the 2019 and 2020 Brownlow Medals, releasing a free downloadable round-by-round breakdown for users to delve deep into the data. In 2021, Oliver Wines, Marcus Bontempelli and Clayton Oliver appear to be the front runners to take Charlie Home, followed by Jack Steele and Sam Walsh. Our users can access the early Brownlow predictions for the season along with a detailed report that's available as a free download. The report features our model's main contenders, team votes, probabilities of leading after rounds 5 and 10 as well as round-by-round data for each and every AFL match of season 2021.

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