Boston Celtics: Contenders or Pretenders?

"The Celtics will win the East."

"Gordon Hayward just needs to get healthy."

"They'll be fine for the playoffs."

"I'm worried about the Celtics."

That's how the watercooler conversation has developed over the course of the season so far, for many Celtics fans who are now questioning whether or not this team can really compete for an NBA Championship.

Beating the Warriors is going to be a big ask for anybody, but after the Rockets took them to seven games in the Western Conference Finals last season, the Celtics thought they might be a chance at replicating - if not bettering the near upset in 2018-19.

They still might be the team that scares the Warriors the most, but there is a lot of work to do, and they are running out of time to do it.

Currently 29-18, the Celtics haven't lived up to expectations, and much of it is down do the sub-par play of their important young stars, and depth players that were meant to be what made the team great.

Jayson Tatum has been disappointing in his sophomore season, and it has caught Brad Stevens and the Celtics off guard.

A summer with Kobe Bryant has been the source of many jokes, but regardless of whether or not the former Lakers great has infiltrated the mentality of Tatum, the Celtics forward hasn't kicked on like most people thought he would.

His points, rebounds and assists are up, but Tatum's efficiency - what made him so good as a rookie in the second half of last season - is down. The drop from his 53.8% effective field goal percentage down to 51.3% has a lot to do with his declining three-point percentage and increase in mid-range attempts.

The 43.4% Tatum shot from beyond the arc as a rookie was never going to be sustainable. To expect it again was just setting the now 20-year-old up to fail. However, he's barely been able to replicate that number from the field in general in 2018-19, while shooting 44.6% overall.

Tatum shot 213 mid-range jump shots at 43.7% in 80 games last season for 2.6 attempts per game. In 46 games this season, he's already hoisted 166 at 38.6% for 3.4 attempts per game. In a league that is moving away from the mid-range, Tatum taking more of them at a worse clip as he looks to assume an increased role is the offence quite clearly isn't working.

Jayson Tatum was 0-6 last night vs. Memphis. Here’s his per-36 numbers last year/this year. Strangest subplot of a strange Celtics season — good young players almost always make a leap in Year 2. Cannot figure this out. pic.twitter.com/aGgW8pNxo5

— Bill Simmons (@BillSimmons) January 19, 2019

In contrast to Tatum, Jaylen Brown has seen his role reduced. He started all 70 games he featured in throughout 2017-18 to become a key cog in Boston's 55-win season. However, his minutes are down, he now finds himself on the bench, and his numbers don't match up to those he produced last season.

The counting stats read moderately well. Brown averages 12.2 points, 4.2 assists and 1.4 assist off the bench per game. However, as one of the Celtics' up and coming young guys, the expectation was that he would contribute a lot more to this team than he has. As it stands, Brown's minus-2.4 box plus-minus is the worst of all of Boston's significant rotation players while his value over replacement rating is 0.0. 

To put it simply, the 22-year-old is the epitome of average this season.

And then there's Terry Rozier. His fall from grace has been ugly, although somewhat expected. He's always been looked at through green-tinted glasses out East, when in reality, a genuine contender wouldn't have him so high in the rotation.

Many of his 22.4 minutes per game seem to be crowbarred in there. Shooting just 33.7% from the floor, Rozier isn't adding the spark off the bench people thought he did last season and expected him to do again in this one. Too many of his 8.2 field goal attempts per game are met with a cringe from fans in the stands, and a thud as the ball bricks off the rim.

In those 22.4 minutes per game Rozier is on the court, the Celtics are playing with a 102.7 offensive rating. That number ranks 29th in the NBA, ahead of only the Bulls. If that's not scathing enough, the Celtics play with what would rank as the fifth-best offensive rating in the league at 114.2 points per 100 possessions when Rozier sits.

He himself has said Danny Ainge wouldn't trade him. Ainge probably won't. But the pair of them knows Rozier won't be there next season regardless. While he carries some value towards the bottom of the rotation or when Kyrie Irving is out, perhaps the Celtics should start preparing for his departure now with a reduction in minutes.

Less Rozier may bring some balance to the rotation and allow Stevens to send out more consistent lineups.

It may come organically as Hayward's fitness and confidence improves.

Hayward absorbs the contact and finishes at the rim! pic.twitter.com/BYBj7Q7KtU

— Boston Celtics (@celtics) January 21, 2019

Somewhat expected, Boston's lineups have been chopped and changed, with Hayward, in particular, finding it difficult to iron out his role. He's clearly not yet the player he was before the gruesome injury, but if he's ever to get there again, it's going to come through in-game reps.

He's slowly begun to look more like himself as the season goes on. Confidence in his body is the first hurdle - we all know he can knock down shots. That shooting aspect of his recovery will come in due course. Until then, though, he needs consistent time on the court and for the ball to be in his hands.

Long off a minutes restriction, Hayward hasn't seen a significant increase as the season goes on. In fact, he's averaging two minutes fewer in January (25.4mgp) than he did in December. However, his shot is starting to fall more. In nine games throughout January, Hayward has shot 50% from the field on 10.2 attempts per game. It's not the output he generated at his peak in Utah, but it's a step in the right direction.

It's a step that can allow Celtics fans to get excited again.

A healthy Hayward alongside Al Horford and Kyrie Irving is a contending team in the East, at the very least. The Celtics may still enter the playoffs as the favourites to get out of the conference if everything goes as planned. And they do have a plan.

Horford is arguably the most important player on the team, and Stevens recently talked about how they've approached increasing his minutes:

“I think Al’s played really well on this stretch and I think it’s coincided with an increase in minutes, which I think has been a good thing for all of us. He feels great, so the whole thing of progressing him through the month of December at the appropriate pace I think has paid dividends."

As such crucial part to any Celtics success, Horford playing in limited minutes while nursing an injury needs to be considered before we call them a colossal disappointment. 

It's that consideration - along with being well aware of what Irving can do in the playoffs - that gives life to the idea that the Celtics will still get out of the East as so many expected in October.

As Horford and Hayward get healthier, their minutes will increase. As their minutes increase, so does their production which, in turn, takes pressure off the so far struggling youngsters.

It's worth remembering that the Celtics are still a work in progress. They overachieved last season, and perhaps everybody set their expectations too high, too quickly. Irving has admitted they themselves got a little bit ahead of themselves. But with their heads pulled in and a favourable stint in the schedule in which they shouldn't travel any worse than 8-1, the Celtics have an opportunity to strike.

It's been an up and down season already, but looks on the up again, and with Horford and Hayward improving, the conversation around the watercooler looks set for another change.

Are the Celtics a contender again?

Stats Insider is the leader for speculative sports analytics content in Australia. The machine learning models, powered by thousands of data points, predict the probability — or the mathematical percentage likelihood — of a sporting result or outcome.

How do the Stats Insider predictions work?
READ: What is the Edge?

Get all our sporting predictions - every game, every day - with a FREE TRIAL of Stats Insider Premium.

Remember, the Stats Insider projections are dynamic and are subject to change right up to the jump. Always gamble responsibly.

Don't forget to follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram!