BBL Markets Preview – Saturday Double Header
Last updated: Dec 22, 2018, 2:25AM | Published: Dec 22, 2018, 1:01AM
Welcome to Stats Insider's Big Bash Market Preview - your daily look at what the model (and my gut) are seeing in the main markets (and a few exotics) each and every day of BBL08!
Big double header this afternoon with the Sixers v Scorchers at the SCG and the Heat v Hurricanes at Metricon Stadium on the Gold Coast.
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Head to Head
The model is playing a straight bat on both games in the H2H markets with very small edges on the Sixers (1%) and the Heat (2%). There is a strong chance the late game on the Gold Coast (Heat/Hurricanes) will be impacted by rain so watch the BOM and monitor markets in the lead up.
Highest Opening Partnership
Decent edge in this market in the early game - the model has found a surprising edge in the Sixers/Scorchers game for the home side – a 5% edge for the Sixers. I’d have thought that the swing of Behrendorff would keep that edge down but Denly and Hughes are a solid opening partnership.
Nothing in this market for the late game in terms of edges for the model, personally I can’t see the Heat sans Pattinson making too many early inroads but the Metricon wicket did have a few gremlins in it for that T20I.
Fall of 1st Wicket
The model is sticking with the Sixers starting their innings well with a 4% edge for the Overs at 20.5 runs in the Fall of 1st Wicket market. Conversely it likes the Scorchers to lose an early wicket with a solid 5% edge for the Scorchers at the Unders (20.5 runs).
Two 3% edges for the Overs I the late game which is a smart play by the model, identifying two poor bowling units compared to the top order batting class.
Most Sixes
Nothing from the model in the early game but jump on the Heat for Most Sixes tonight on the Gold Coast says the model, identifying a 6% edge for the ‘home’ side. I like it a lot. Yes the Hurricanes have a lot of strike power but they have 8 overs of off-spin to bowl against Lynn/McCullum who eat that for breakfast.
High Bat
Looking well down both lists in the early game for some value on a pitch that will do plenty both for the early seamers and the spinners in the middle overs. Ashton Agar at $15’s appeals, as does Coulter-Nile at $34’s. This pitch will be hard for batsman to feel in and comfortable so a late 25pt flurry from a power hitter down the order (or a rear-guard from Agar) is very likely to win this.
Likewise looking down the order for the Sixers and one that appeals at stupid odds is Stephen O’Keefe. SOK can bat if his mates stick around. I’d take some of Denly at $4’s as well but I certainly wouldn’t be sleeping on the lower order value.
In the late game it is the complete opposite. A distinct lack of bowling class, particularly opening, means the likes of Lynn at $3’s and Short at $3’s are both pretty appealing options in what could be a rain-effected game where overs are lost in each innings potentially.
Player of the Match
Agar at 17’s, Pope at $21’s – Im looking strongly at the value in the spinners and lower-order all-rounders here at the SCG.
Darcy Short looks to have the best chance to take down the Man of The Match honours in the late game at $7.50 given the lack of quality opening bowlers the heat possess in Pattinson’s absence.
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