This page is automatically generated for every game, and summaries our 10,000 simulations of the outcome of each match. We use a Monte Carlo approach to simulate each match 10,000 times to understand the range of outcomes, and how likely each of them is. If a team wins 4000 of our simulations, we project them to be a 40% chance to win the upcoming match.
The simulations on this page are updated frequently throughout the week, and you can see from the progress bar which information is included. We show the market leading odds from bookmakers for comparison, as well as the investments which would result from comparing our projections to the bookmakers. These are not tips, and they may change significantly right up until game time.
Free users can view our projected score for the match, as well as the percentage chance of each team winning.
For premium users, you can see how our simulations apply to some of the key betting markets. Whether you’re considering a bet on the head-to-head, line, margin, or some of the player performance markets, you’ll find projections to help you with your betting decisions. We also have written previews for the matches, both from the results of our simulations and from an independent expert on each sport. To access our premium predictions, you can Go Premium, or purchase credits to view this information for one-off matches.
For more information on what we do check out our Help Centre
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What are the main differences between the membership levels?
The main difference between our two premium services is the time at which you can access the value plays and predictions for each game. Super Premium members get access to the match page when the first complete model predictions are published, and in the whole week leading up to the match, as well as an ‘Early Value’ notification for each sport. Premium members get access to the match page 24 hours before kick off time for weekly sports, and 6 hours before for daily sports (e.g. NBA), as well as a value notification on gameday that includes all matches that day.
Free members get access to our featured game match pages, usually one per day where there is more than one game on.
|Match Page Access||1 game per day||On gameday||Early (when markets go up)|
|Value Summary Page Access||1 game per day||On gameday||Early (when markets go up)|
|Value notifications||1 hour out from game||Early and 1 hour out from first daily game|
|Notification preferences||Email and/or SMS|
|In-Play probabilities||H2H||H2H, Line, Total||H2H, Line, Total|
|Weekly Member Mail||Yes||Yes|
|5-day free trial||Yes||Yes|
Can I cancel my subscription?
Yes, you can cancel your subscription at anytime by going to My Account > Subscriptions > Manage Subscription.
Once you cancel, your access will continue until the end of your billing period. At the end of your billing period, your access will end and you will not be charged again.
You will not receive a prorated refund if you cancel in the middle of your billing period.
What are value notifications?
Value notifications are short automated messages intended to notify our Premium members that the Stats Insider models have identified value plays worth looking at.
Super Premium members get Early and Gameday Notifications and can select whether to receive them by text message (SMS) or email. Premium members get Gameday notifications for the value on the matches that day.
Early notifications are triggered if the models identify value when our models first run after full markets are released for each sport. For example, you will receive an Early Notification for the upcoming NRL round on Tuesday nights when the model updates with team lists and totals are more widely available.
Gameday Notifications are sent 1 hour before the first match of that day and include the value for all matches in that day. Only one Gameday Notification is sent per day and is only sent if there is sport on that day.
The Stats Insider models are constantly updating with market odds and other information, often changing our match predictions and value plays. Our notifications are intended to prompt you to check our match pages and Value Summary page to make sure you have the most up to date information. They are not tips.
What is the benefit of Early notifications?
Our models generally have a better edge against the bookies before the market catches up, so our results have consistently made a higher turnover against opening lines than closing lines.
When will I receive notifications?
Early notifications are sent out when our models first run after full markets are released for each sport. For NRL, for example, you will receive an early value notification on a Tuesday night after teams are released, totals are widely available, and the model has run its first set of predictions for the round.
Gameday Notifications are sent 1 hour before the first match of that day and include the value for all matches in that day. Only one Gameday Notification is sent per day and it is only sent if there is sport on that day.
What sports will I get with my membership?
Memberships include every sport we offer on the the site, although only Super Premium members can access our ‘small market sports’.
Seasonally, we offer predictive analytics and value plays for NBA, NFL, MLB, College Football, College Basketball, AFL, NRL, Big Bash Cricket, Rugby Union and Tennis.
More sports may be added.
What are small market sports?
Our Super Premium members get access to any small market sports we might add. These are sports with a lower market cap (e.g. have less people placing bets on them), and softer lines against which our models have a greater advantage. The combined effect of this means that a few people betting on our predictions could move the market significantly. Examples include the NBL and AFLW.
What countries is Premium available in?
Anyone in the world can subscribe to Stats Insider Premium or Super Premium. While we are based in Australia, we have many users and customers from the US, UK and all over, really. Our predictions are universal.
To find the equivalent price in your currency, please visit xe.com.
Please note that text message (SMS) notifications are currently only available to Australian mobile/cell numbers.
I want to upgrade/downgrade my subscription
If you are on a paid subscription currently, you can change details of, upgrade, or downgrade your subscription at anytime by going to My Account > Subscriptions > Manage Subscription.
Upgrades are prorated. When upgrading, you will be charged the difference between the packages for the remainder of the month until your next renewal date.
When downgrading, the amount left will be credited towards your future Premium payments.
Subscription payments are non-refundable.
If you are on a free membership, you will need to set up a new subscription by choosing either Premium or Super Premium and following the steps.
What’s included in the free trial?
Both of our Premium subscriptions include a 5-day free trial so you can try the full features of a membership before committing. You won’t be charged for the first 5 days and you can cancel your subscription at any time during your trial period. Alternatively, if you’re loving your subscription, you don’t have to take any action at all.
Once your free trial ends, you will be charged the usual monthly rate, depending on which plan you subscribed to, which you can cancel at any time during your billing period.
Get the most out of your free trial by managing your alert preferences in My Account once you’ve signed up, to make sure you don’t miss any value!