BBL Markets Preview Game 28-30: Sunday Triple Header

Jan 13, 2019, 12:27AM

Welcome to Stats Insider's Big Bash Market Preview - your daily look at what the model (and my gut!) are seeing in the main markets (and a few exotics) each and every day of BBL08!

Three games and six (6!) suggested bets from this afternoon with twelve hours of big bash value from the Stats Insider model.

MATCH PREDICTIONS: Thunder v Strikers

MATCH PREDICTIONS: Renegades v Heat

MATCH PREDICTIONS: Scorchers v Sixers

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Head to Head

No bet in all three games today for this main market with bookies pretty spot on according to the model. Looking elsewhere.

Most Sixes

Huge 11% edge in the early game for the Strikers here. Without Buttler the model is giving the Thunder very little chance of clearing the fence. Wattson and Sams look the two most likely but with so much spin in the Thunder attack and Head/Weatherald and Ingram there it is easy to see why the model likes it so much.

For the Renegades v Heat game the model likes the Heat to clear the fence more than the home side. It's been on Brisbane in this market alot so far this season and with Cutting likely in it's another solid play.

In the late game in Perth the model likes the Scorchers for most sixes which is unusual. It has loved betting against Perth in this market but with Turner and Bancroft both hitting form the model has found a 4% edge which i quite like.

Fall of First Wicket

There is a 3% edge for the Thunder at the Under 21.5 but no suggested bet. Monitor that one closer to start time.

For the game in Geelong the model has found a 5% edge for the Heat at the Under 19.5 runs. Bryant has been getting out cheaply but this is one i'm less keen on than the model today given the weaker Renegades opening bowling (no Richardson or Usman Khan).

The model likes the Sixers Under 18.5 (5%) in the late game which looks a great call given Willey and Coulter-Nile will be opening the bowling.

After Six Overs

Solid 7% edge for the visitors here. Probably more a commentary on the new Watson / Devcich opening partnership for the Thunder. Like it!

High Bat

Wells at $8's all day. Like Ferguson ($4) and Sams ($7) for the Thunder.

For the Heat Ben Cutting at $15's is great value - if Lynn fails Cutting will come up the order and have heaps of time to bat. Like Sam Harper ($5) for the Renegades.

Going back to Hilton Cartwright ($7) in the late game. Every chance he bats #43 tonight. Love the value about Phillipe ($13) and Curran ($21) for the Sixers. Expect that the Scorchers make early inroads.

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Dan Fraser

Former ABC Journo and Champion Data stats nerd who loves his fantasy sport, punting, footy, cricket, golf - you get the point. More than prepared to take driver off the deck from 250 out (especially if it's for a beverage or two!) but will also happily take my medicine when the occasion calls for it. Pumped to be part of the Stats Insider team - if it's value and it's footy, I'm all over it in 2019 folks!