BBL Markets Preview Game 18 - Renegades v Strikers
Last updated: Jan 3, 2019, 2:44AM | Published: Jan 3, 2019, 1:08AM
Welcome to Stats Insider's Big Bash Market Preview - your daily look at what the model (and my gut) are seeing in the main markets (and a few exotics) each and every day of BBL08!
The Renegades v Strikers Match Page is lit up orange today with the Stats Insider model loving the Strikers across multiple markets.
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Head to Head
From the 10,000 simulations that the model ran on this game, the Strikers are a 58% chance to win tonight in the H2H market, a figure which the model has a 5% edge on. Don't often see edges in these H2H markets from the model as markets usually have it pretty spot on, but tonight it's the Strikers. My two question marks would be the unknown of the pitch and the headspace of Rashid Khan.
Most Sixes
Another 5% edge for the visitors here and I expect this has as much to do with the bowling of the Strikers but remember, no Siddle tonight which presents four overs of easier six hitting chances for the Renegades batsmen. Certainly Ingram, Carey and Weatherald can all clear the fence at will.
Team Leading After Six Overs
The biggest edge of the night in this market from the model, 7% edge for the Strikers to be leading after 6 overs. Usman Khan can tie up an end in the power play but they have been reluctant to use him in the early overs more than one over, so this looks a real no-brainer bet from the model. Well picked up! #TrustTheModel
High Bat
Jono Wells ($9) is just too much value for a fourth drop in the Big Bash. Early wickets for the 'Gades mean Wells will get heaps of opportunity to build a score. Mohammad Nabi is one from the Renegades whose price is also just too good at $8. He came in at #4 last game and looked the only one capable of navigating Rashid Khan.
Player of the Match
Rashid Khan ($8) will get a narrative bias tonight so a 2 for sub 20 probably gets it done for him. Down the list at value town though are a few I like. Wells $21, Laughlin $21 and Usman Khan at $13's all look solid value plays for mine.
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