BBL Markets Preview Game 11 – Hurricanes v Thunder
Last updated: Dec 28, 2018, 4:07AM | Published: Dec 27, 2018, 10:39PM
Welcome to Stats Insider's Big Bash Market Preview - your daily look at what the model (and my gut) are seeing in the main markets (and a few exotics) each and every day of BBL08!
The market continues to underrate the Hurricanes against the Thunder in a game where we could see plenty of runs being scored
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RELATED: 2018-19 BBL Team Projections
Head to Head
Markets are continuing to underrate this Hobart Hurricanes team with the Sydney Thunder $1.85 favourites tonight. The model has not identified an edge but has the Hurricanes as slightly ahead from the 10,000 match simulations (52%-48%).
Personally I have huge question marks on the Thunder pace attack – if someone (like D’Arcy Short for example) gets hold of their spinners the Thunder seem to have no one to tighten things back up whereas Jofra Archers is a walking run-rate killer.
Highest Opening Partnership
Slight 2% edge for the Hurricanes again in this market but no bet suggested by the model. Shane Watson and Jos Buttler have looked on the cusp of getting out pretty much any ball over the first two games whereas D’Arcy Short and Matthew Wade have looked much more composed. With offspin likely early against both opening pairs it’s a coin flip as to who will flush them and who will be dismissed cheaply. I’m coming down Hurricanes but only just.
Most Sixes
No value here from the model. With so many batsman that can clear the fence this will likely be a game situation more so than raw ability. I’d lean the Hurricanes purely on the weaker Thunder pace attack.
High Bat
Ben McDermott at $5.50 is value for mine but it’s a tough market given Short is so, um, short.
I really (really) like Sangha at $9’s and Ferguson at $5.50 for the Thunder as I expect (and the model is backing this up) the Thunder to lose early wickets all things being equal.
Player of the Match
This game is setup for a big innings to take down Player of the Match. Any number of these batsman can take the game away in a few overs. I’m big on Benny McDermott here.
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