BBL Markets Preview Game 1: Heat v Strikers
Last updated: Dec 19, 2018, 2:49AM | Published: Dec 18, 2018, 9:22PM
Welcome to Stats Insider's Big Bash Market Preview - your daily look at what the model (and my gut) are seeing in the main markets (and a few exotics) each and every day of BBL08!
Before we get stuck in, make sure you jump on to the Heat v Strikers Match Page to see exactly what the model is saying about tonight's match.
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RELATED: 2018-19 BBL Team Projections
Head to Head
There is a very slight edge for the Strikers from the model here which personally I’m a little bit wary of first up. It is not often the reigning champs go into the first game underdogs which tells you plenty about both the fragility of the Strikers batting lineup as well as the strength of the Heat side top to bottom. May not get the Heat at $1.90 much this season. I like the home side at the $1.90 price.
Fall of 1st Wicket
The model is playing a straight bat first up in this market likely due to the uncertainty surrounding opening bowlers. Don’t be surprised to see both Rashid Khan and Mujeeb Ur Rahman feature in the first couple of overs. If this happens I’m loving the Unders here in both innings as these guys are aggressive wicket-taking spinners who usually have an immediate impact.
Most Sixes
Brisbane’s top order can (and do) all clear the fence at will, the same cannot be said of Adelaide particularly in their middle-to-lower order. It just lacks pure hitting power. If the Heat top order fail, Cutting and Peirson provide some insurance. The model does have a 3% edge for the Strikers in this market so the value is slightly with the visitors but hard to have against a team with Lynn and McCullum.
High Bat
If Mujeeb makes inroads early there could be a lot of overs left for Jon Wells to make a good impression on his new coach. I like the look of the 10-1 odds for Wells here who could come in at #5 with plenty to do and even more time to do it in.
(Make sure you check the Stats Insider Heat v Strikers Match Page before the game starts to see what the model says about these markets. Innings Runs predictions will be published 4hrs prior to the match starting.)
Most Wickets
Ben Laughlin at $4.50 for the Strikers appeals, always closes the innings well and being on a death-bowlers for most wickets is sound BBL betting strategy 101. Mitch Swepson from the Heat, whilst not a noted wicket-taker, looks a good price at $4.50 particularly if he is bowling to that middle-lower order.
Player of the Match
If Chris Lynn ($6) can navigate the spin of Rashid Khan I see no reason why he doesn’t play a match-winning innings here against the Strikers seamers. Stand-in Strikers skipper Colin Ingram at $10’s is worth a good look, he will have to have a big knock for Adelaide to win. Mujeeb at $17’s in his BBL debut looks better and better every time I re-watch clips of him on YouTube.
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