Negative emotions threatened to boil over into outright crankiness at Club 20 this morning until a quick-thinking swampy put some Taylor Swift on the juke box sparking a pub-wide ‘shake it off’ ceremony followed by a pool beer pong tourney. 

Swift thinking indeed there by young Nikki, she’s going places I tell ya!

There are tough beats and then there’s what happened to us in Mississippi this morning. I don’t want to go into too much detail lest the sandiness return, but in a nutshell it went; Sungjae Im winning in clubhouse, Munoz needing bird on last, Munoz getting bird on last, playoff down 18^th , Im horrid lie off the tee and subsequent flyer to back of green, Im horrid lie again but got it to 8ft, misses putt, Munoz makes par, widespread man-tears. 

But Shazza, the wise and powerful Goddess of Luck, Cold Beers and Sparkling Pools often works in mysterious ways and it’s no coincidence that the 2019 Brownlow Medal falls on the very same day we cop such a bad beat. 

Thanks to Stats Insider’s Brownlow Medal Report (the single greatest Brownlow Medal modelling we’ve ever seen here at Club 20), hopes are high that this morning’s disappointment will be totally forgotten by the time Charlie is draped around someones neck tonight.

Brownlow Handicap: Brodie Grundy +7 @ 10.00

Few of the boys wanted to go hard on Reg for the Outright but despite his season he is still a ruckman trying to win a midfielders medal. With seven votes headstart on Danger and a good amount on the other frontrunners, we feel much more comfortable that Grundy can really compete here.

Brownlow Handicap: Patrick Dangerfield (scratch) @ 12.00

The Stats insider model has Danger as a pretty firm favourite despite Tim Kelly’s start to the season but we just can’t take anyone at under 3-1 in an Outright market for such a crap-shoot so we’re double dipping in this handicap market at the better odds with the view that it will be a race in two. His finish to 2019 was amazing, there’s a good chance he will swoop these guys late at great odds. 

Brownlow Most Team Votes: Western Bulldogs @ 10.00

Geelong are a stupid price here to begin with, but when you have a look at the Mean Votes Per Team page in the stats Insider Report, you see how much value the Dogs, even the Giants and to a lesser extent Lions are in this market. This is a favourite market at Club 20 to have a good piece of given the tradition of playing our ‘Team Votes’ drinking game throughout the night – this year it’s the Doggies!

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Brownlow Team Votes Multi: Brodie Grundy / James Worpel / Max Gawn @ 6.00

These three guys stick out as head and shoulders above the rest of their teammates according to the Stats Insider model and all three passed the Club 20 ‘pub test’ with flying colours so our ‘safety’ multi (if there is such a thing on these nights) should cover us if everything else goes to Sungjae on us. 

Brownlow Team Votes Multi: Brodie Grundy / James Worpel / Tim Taranto / Max Gawn @ 39.00

The model likes the value about Taranto who has actually firmed considerably into 6’s from last week when he was 8’s on some books. It’s a massive four-way coin flip in the GWS market but with his mates all missing games and all around the $2, $3 mark, Taranto looks the value inclusion here by far. We’re taking him as a standalone bet in the GWS Team Votes market as well at the $6 price. 

Brownlow Team Votes Multi: Brodie Grundy / James Worpel / Tim Taranto / Max Gawn / Jade Gresham @ 860.00

By far the best ‘value’ play of the night is in the St Kilda market with Jade Gresham hovering around that $21-23 mark across markets. The model (on average) has him less than a vote or two behind Billings and Ross so we’ve taken the Gresham bet as a standalone play in the St Kilda Team Votes market as well as included him in the hail-mary of all Brownlow multi’s – if this wins you may not hear from us for a few weeks.