Club 20 PGA/Euro bets: “If there is one course for Rory, it’s this one”
Last week looked like being so glorious and ended in heartbreak but taking the glass half full approach, that just means we’re in form and close to absolutely nutting a tournament.
Currently, we are sitting at 23% POT after getting ridiculously unlucky in the AFL last Sunday, we were then kicked in the nuts again late Sunday night AND early Monday morning as big tickets in the golf burnt up on the closing holes of the final day.
Hopefully the golfing gods are kinder this week and the turn in fortunes starts tonight!
PGA TOUR – WELLS FARGO CHAMPIONSHIP
We’re in North Carolina this week, to one of the best / hardest courses in the whole United States - Quail Hollow for the Wells Fargo Championship
It’s a very strong field for a very strong course, a monstrous 7,521 yard Par 71 (!) featuring Bermuda right through with a splash of Poa on the greens.
Aside from Rory who lapped the field in 2015 by 6 strokes, the winning score at this course is around that -12 mark, particularly when the wind gets up which it is forecast to do Friday afternoon.
There is a very (VERY) clear edge for the PM/AM waves this week with winds expected to die down after lunch on Thursday and then jack up at midday Friday to get up past that 26km/hour which is not what you need when you’re at such a tough, long course.
With the course so difficult and the wind a factor round 2, I think betting on the outright market after the first round is definitely the play, so we are mainly taking First Round Leader bets here and watching very closely tonight (nice early start too and no AFL so lots of golf to watch!)
For those that want to put some Outrights on early, check out the Stats Insider Tournament Predictions page – there are three guys with green smiley faces that the model has spied some value on in this market (definitely shop the prices too).
If there is a course for Rory to recapture his mojo it’s this one, full stop. He has won this event twice and loves the course.
Despite the fact he is broken, the tee time and course form (and price) are combining to compel us to back him as our headline play.
First Round Leader Bets (all EW)
Rory McIlroy @ 29/7.50
Will Zalatoris @ 41/10.25
Matt Jones @ 81/20.25
Seung-Yul Noh @ 251/62.50
Also bet Seung-Yul Noh in the Outright Market @ 751-1 / 187 despite his early tee time, he has two top 10 finishes here including a T5 in 2018 and it’s the kind of course that should suit him especially if the putter lights up.
Will definitely be taking a few bets after the first round so keep an eye out on our Club 20 Twitter page and by all means, if you are watching and like the look of a guy, join in the conversation and let us in on your spot.
EURO TOUR – CANARY ISLAND CHAMPIONSHIP
Same course this week as last week except one of the Par 4’s is now a Par 5 and weather conditions look better so it should be an absolute birdie fest that could give -30 a shake which is insane to say.
Cal Hill was a huge let down last week but our other two guys Pep and Jono took us deep into the final round before they both shat the bed.
Odds wise they have not really taken that much of a bump despite a vastly weaker and reduced field, so we aren’t thinking too much about it and going again on the guys we liked last week, both outright and First Round Leader bets.
Callum Hill @ 34.00/8.50, 41.00/10.25
Pep Angles @ 51.00/12.75, 56.00/14.00
Jono Caldwell @ 126.00/31.50, 91.00/22.75
Stay tuned for the AFL bets on Saturday (we’re shooting for a hattrick of very nice collects in the footy) or if you don’t lie staying tuned, sign up to the Club 20 email and you’ll get the golf and footy emails sent for free straight to your inbox each week.