Predicting Matchday 23 of the English Premier League
Last week, Liverpool extended their lead at the top to a massive 14-point margin, while Watford managed to climb out of the relegation zone thanks to their incredible run of form in the last month.
The desperate-looking Norwich was smashed by Manchester United, while cross-town rivals Manchester City did something similar at Villa Park.
This week has some incredibly juicy matches lined up, headlined by 18-time league champions Liverpool FC hosting 20-time champions, Manchester United. The last time Liverpool lost at Anfield was against Crystal Palace, way back in April 2017. Things don’t look too optimistic for the Red Devils, but you never want to count them out, do you?
It’s going to be an eventful week, so let’s see what our Premier League model predicts. For the Premier League, Stats Insider's EPL model utilised a variety of data points and machine-learning processes to predict the most likely outcome for each match.
For all football value bets, view the value summary, or click the match widgets below to see the full match probabilities for each match.
Watford vs Tottenham Hotspur
Venue: Vicarage Road
Most Likely Predicted Score: Watford 1-1 Tottenham Hotspur (11.3%)
H2H Win Probability: Watford 31%, Tottenham Hotspur 41%, Draw 27%
Norwich City vs Bournemouth
Venue: Carrow Road
Most Likely Predicted Score: Norwich City 1-1 Bournemouth (10.6%)
H2H Win Probability: Norwich City 44%, Bournemouth 29%, Draw 27%
Brighton vs Aston Villa
Venue: The American Express Community Stadium
Most Likely Predicted Score: Brighton 2-1 Aston Villa (9.9%)
H2H Win Probability: Brighton 55%, Aston Villa 22%, Draw 23%
Southampton vs Wolves
Venue: St. Mary’s Stadium
Most Likely Predicted Score: Southampton 1-1 Wolves (11.7%)
H2H Win Probability: Southampton 40%, Wolves 33%, Draw 28%
Manchester City vs Crystal Palace
Venue: Etihad Stadium
Most Likely Predicted Score: Manchester City 3-0 Crystal Palace (13.5%)
H2H Win Probability: Man City 84%, Crystal Palace 5%, Draw 28%
Arsenal vs Sheffield Utd
Venue: Emirates Stadium
Most Likely Predicted Score: Arsenal 1-1 Sheffield Utd (11.7%)
H2H Win Probability: Arsenal 50%, Sheffield Utd 22%, Draw 28%
West Ham vs Everton
Venue: London Stadium
Most Likely Predicted Score: West Ham 1-1 Everton (11.4%)
H2H Win Probability: West Ham 30%, Everton 43%, Draw 27%
Newcastle vs Chelsea
Venue: St. James’ Park
Most Likely Predicted Score: Newcastle 0-2 Chelsea (10.6%)
H2H Win Probability: Newcastle 18%, Chelsea 60%, Draw 22%
Burnley vs Leicester City
Venue: Turf Moor
Predicted Score: 1-1 (10.4%)
H2H Win Probability: Burnley 26%, Leicester 48%, Draw 25%
Liverpool vs Manchester Utd
Predicted Score: Liverpool 2-0 Manchester Utd (11.5%)
H2H Win Probability: Liverpool 66%, Man Utd 15%, Draw 19%
Stats Insider's EPL Schedule Difficulty attempts to forecast how easy (or difficult) a team's upcoming Premier League fixtures are. The opposition's team rating and home ground advantage are the main factors in grading the difficulty of the fixture.
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