Predicting Matchday 27 of the English Premier League

Manchester City’s European football ban was the biggest story of last week. This week, the spotlight shifts to Stamford Bridge as Jose Mourinho returns to his former club for the first time as a Tottenham Hotspur manager.

The battle for Top 4 is heating up as Manchester United made a huge dent in Chelsea’s chances by beating them 0-2 earlier this week. Only 6 points separate the fourth-place Chelsea to 11th place Burnley, and with 12 games to go, every point will be crucial to make it into Europe.

There are three huge matches this weekend with Chelsea hosting Spurs, Man City visiting Brendan Rodger’s Leicester City while Everton will be looking to end Arsenal’s unbeaten run in 2020.

With so many components in play, let’s see what our Premier League model predicts.

For the Premier League, Stats Insider's EPL model utilised a variety of data points and machine-learning processes to predict the most likely outcome for each match.

For all football value bets, view the value summary, or click the match widgets below to see the full match probabilities for each match.

Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur

Venue: Stamford Bridge

Predicted Score: Chelsea 1-0 Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea 2-1 Tottenham Hotspur (both at 10.6%)

H2H Win Probability: Chelsea 55%, Tottenham Hotspur 22%, Draw 23%

Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur Match Predictions

Burnley vs Bournemouth

Venue: Turf Moor

Predicted Score: Burnley 1-1 Bournemouth 

H2H Win Probability: Burnley 48%, Bournemouth 29%, Draw 27%

Burnley vs Bournemouth Match Predictions


Southampton vs Aston Villa

Venue: St. Mary’s Stadium

Predicted Score: Southampton 2-1 Aston Villa

H2H Win Probability: Southampton 53%, Aston Villa 23%, Draw 24%

Southampton vs Aston Villa Match Predictions

Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United

Venue: Selhurst Park

Predicted Score: Crystal Palace 1-0 Newcastle United

H2H Win Probability: Crystal Palace 52%, Newcastle United 21%, Draw 27%

Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United Match Predictions

Sheffield United vs Brighton

Venue: Bramall Lane

Predicted Score: Sheffield United 1-0 Brighton

H2H Win Probability: Sheffield United 47%, Brighton 25%, Draw 28%

Sheffield United vs Brighton Match Predictions

Leicester City vs Manchester City 

Venue: King Power Stadium

Predicted Score: Leicester City 1-2 Manchester City

H2H Win Probability: Leicester City 24%, Manchester City 54%, Draw 22%

Leicester City vs Manchester City Match Predictions

Wolves vs Norwich City

Venue: Molineux Stadium

Predicted Score: Wolves 1-0 Norwich City and Wolves 2-0 Norwich City (both at 10.6%)

H2H Win Probability: Wolves 61%, Norwich City 16%, Draw 23%

Wolves vs Norwich City Match Predictions

Manchester United vs Watford

Venue: Old Trafford

Predicted Score: Man Utd 1-0 Watford and Man Utd 2-0 Watford (both at 10.4%)

H2H Win Probability: Man Utd 55%, Watford 20%, Draw 24%

Manchester United vs Watford Match Predictions

Arsenal vs Everton

Venue: Emirates Stadium

Predicted Score: Arsenal 2-1 Everton

H2H Win Probability: Arsenal 51%, Everton 23%, Draw 25%

Arsenal vs Everton Match Predictions

Liverpool vs West Ham United

Venue: Anfield

Predicted Score: Liverpool 2-0 West Ham United

H2H Win Probability: Liverpool 78%, West Ham United 8%, Draw 14%

Liverpool vs West Ham United Match Predictions


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Nikhil Deshpande

Started supporting Manchester United for Ruud Van Nistelrooy. Chose Collingwood FC because my hairdresser convinced me to. Spreading the word that Charlie Austin and Ben Simmons are GOATs. Got dealt a good hand with sense of humor but had to sacrifice all my Fantasy sports skills in return. Don't regret it at all. Well... maybe just a little.

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