Predicting Matchday 27 of the English Premier League
Manchester City’s European football ban was the biggest story of last week. This week, the spotlight shifts to Stamford Bridge as Jose Mourinho returns to his former club for the first time as a Tottenham Hotspur manager.
The battle for Top 4 is heating up as Manchester United made a huge dent in Chelsea’s chances by beating them 0-2 earlier this week. Only 6 points separate the fourth-place Chelsea to 11th place Burnley, and with 12 games to go, every point will be crucial to make it into Europe.
There are three huge matches this weekend with Chelsea hosting Spurs, Man City visiting Brendan Rodger’s Leicester City while Everton will be looking to end Arsenal’s unbeaten run in 2020.
With so many components in play, let’s see what our Premier League model predicts.
For the Premier League, Stats Insider's EPL model utilised a variety of data points and machine-learning processes to predict the most likely outcome for each match.
For all football value bets, view the value summary, or click the match widgets below to see the full match probabilities for each match.
Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur
Venue: Stamford Bridge
Predicted Score: Chelsea 1-0 Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea 2-1 Tottenham Hotspur (both at 10.6%)
H2H Win Probability: Chelsea 55%, Tottenham Hotspur 22%, Draw 23%
Burnley vs Bournemouth
Venue: Turf Moor
Predicted Score: Burnley 1-1 Bournemouth
H2H Win Probability: Burnley 48%, Bournemouth 29%, Draw 27%
Southampton vs Aston Villa
Venue: St. Mary’s Stadium
Predicted Score: Southampton 2-1 Aston Villa
H2H Win Probability: Southampton 53%, Aston Villa 23%, Draw 24%
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United
Venue: Selhurst Park
Predicted Score: Crystal Palace 1-0 Newcastle United
H2H Win Probability: Crystal Palace 52%, Newcastle United 21%, Draw 27%
Sheffield United vs Brighton
Venue: Bramall Lane
Predicted Score: Sheffield United 1-0 Brighton
H2H Win Probability: Sheffield United 47%, Brighton 25%, Draw 28%
Leicester City vs Manchester City
Venue: King Power Stadium
Predicted Score: Leicester City 1-2 Manchester City
H2H Win Probability: Leicester City 24%, Manchester City 54%, Draw 22%
Wolves vs Norwich City
Venue: Molineux Stadium
Predicted Score: Wolves 1-0 Norwich City and Wolves 2-0 Norwich City (both at 10.6%)
H2H Win Probability: Wolves 61%, Norwich City 16%, Draw 23%
Manchester United vs Watford
Venue: Old Trafford
Predicted Score: Man Utd 1-0 Watford and Man Utd 2-0 Watford (both at 10.4%)
H2H Win Probability: Man Utd 55%, Watford 20%, Draw 24%
Arsenal vs Everton
Venue: Emirates Stadium
Predicted Score: Arsenal 2-1 Everton
H2H Win Probability: Arsenal 51%, Everton 23%, Draw 25%
Liverpool vs West Ham United
Predicted Score: Liverpool 2-0 West Ham United
H2H Win Probability: Liverpool 78%, West Ham United 8%, Draw 14%
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