How Round 15 changed the AFL Finals landscape

Round 15 of the 2019 AFL season was the equivalent of a thunderstorm at a family reunion.

Absolute mayhem, with everybody running in all directions, some less glamorously than others.

Five of the eight teams who occupied positions in the Top 8 heading into the round were defeated, starting with the Bombers' comeback win over Premiership contender, GWS, followed by Carlton’s miraculous win over Fremantle in Perth, North’s defeat of Collingwood and the Bulldogs' upset over Port Adelaide, all making for some of the biggest boilovers of the year.

Where that has left AFL 2019 is in a state of unexpected chaos.

Just when we thought we had a decent grasp on the season’s contenders and pretenders, Round 15 has functioned perfectly to illustrate the randomness of our sport.

With the exception of Geelong’s continual primacy at the top of the table in addition to Carlton, Gold Coast and Melbourne’s lowly status', we can safely say the rest of the competition is in genuine flux.

The purpose of our Stats Insider AFL Futures model is to keep up with all of the results and update our season projections, in this case, our current futures projections differ considerably from last week.

SEE ALL STATS INSIDER'S AFL FUTURES PROJECTIONS

ADELAIDE CROWS 

The Crow's 27-point loss to the Cats was one result which had relatively little effect on our projections. They did drop from 6^th to 5^th on the AFL Ladder, and dropped slightly from an 80.4% chance of making the AFL Finals, to 79.7%.

Sometimes starting alphabetically isn’t much fun.
GO TO 'THE SHOWDOWN' PROJECTIONS

BRISBANE LIONS

Brisbane’s Round 15 victory over Melbourne moved the Lions within percentage only of a Top 4 spot. Going into the weekend, the Stats Insider AFL Futures model forecast Brisbane as a 24% chance of claiming a Top Four position in 2019. That number has now jumped dramatically to 34.5%.
GO TO THE LIONS NEXT MATCH

CARLTON BLUES

No, the only Finals Carlton will be playing in September will be purely games console based, however that’s not to deny them anything from their brilliant win over in Perth on Sunday against the Dockers.
GO TO THE BLUES NEXT MATCH

COLLINGWOOD MAGPIES

This was a brutal loss for the Pies. Regarded for most of the year as a genuine AFL Premiership threat, questions are starting to mount after their 44-point capitulation to the Kangaroos on Saturday night. Going into Round 15, Collingwood were projected at a 17.3% chance of flag glory in 2019. That number has now dipped to 12.4%.
GO TO THE MAGPIES NEXT MATCH

ESSENDON BOMBERS

Call them the league’s yo-yo team - the league’s drama queen - I’m sure you’ve got your own choice of descriptors here, but for now, I’m calling the Bombers 'relevant again.'

That was some win against the Giants on Thursday night, which has elevated their Top 8 prospects from a 27.3% probability all the way up to 42.8%.
GO TO THE BOMBERS NEXT MATCH

FREMANTLE DOCKERS

When you lose to the last-place team - at home - where said opposition was without their two best players in Cripps and Curnow, our model doesn’t respond favourably. In fact, going into Round 15, the Stats Insider AFL Futures model had the Dockers at a 56.4% chance of playing AFL Finals in 2019. That number has incredibly dropped all the way down to 29.6%. This really was a massive loss for Fremantle.
GO TO 'THE DERBY' PROJECTIONS

GEELONG CATS

Another week, another win. They already had a 70% chance of claiming the AFL's minor premiership going into the round, and, thanks to Collingwood and GWS’ meltdowns, that number is now up to 84.2%.
GO TO THE CATS NEXT MATCH

GOLD COAST SUNS

That’s ten losses in a row now for the Suns, who, for the first time in 2019, have slid themselves into the wooden spoon position Carlton has kept warm for them all season long.
GO TO THE SUNS NEXT MATCH

GWS GIANTS

After the Giant’s phenomenal last quarter meltdown against Essendon, they slipped out of the AFL Ladder's top three for the first time since Round 8, and now occupy a Top 4 spot thanks only to their superior percentage over the Lions. Going into Round 15 the Giants were projected as a 73.9% chance of a Top 4 finish. That number is down to 67.1%.
GO TO THE GIANTS NEXT MATCH

HAWTHORN HAWKS

The Hawks are at their lowest ebb in some time, and now sit fourth last on the AFL Ladder. Stats Insider's AFL Sackometer is also keeping a particularly close eye on Hawks HQ at the moment. Going into the round we still assessed Hawthorn as a 6.8% chance of playing AFL Finals. That number is now down to 3%.
GO TO THE HAWKS NEXT MATCH

MELBOURNE DEMONS

Quite simply, this has been a season from hell for the Demons, who will likely now be more focused on procuring the highest possible selection at the next AFL Draft, which isn’t, of course, unfamiliar territory for the Melbourne Football Club. The model cared little for Melbourne going into the round, rating the Demons just a 2.9% chance of AFL Finals in 2019. The loss to Brisbane on the weekend bought that number down to 1.1%.
GO TO THE DEMONS NEXT MATCH

NORTH MELBOURNE

It’s all happening at Arden Street at the moment. Second last on the ladder going into Round 10, the 'Roos have won four of their last five matches and are now just a game and percentage off a Top 8 spot. North was only rated as a 7% chance of September action going into the round, but their shock demolishment of Collingwood has moved that needle up to a probability of 18.1%.
GO TO THE KANGAROOS NEXT MATCH

PORT ADELAIDE POWER

The Power seem to wear a different disguise each week. This one was that of a small kitten running away from the rain. Which is kind of cute, however, Port genuinely blew a golden opportunity to solidify a spot in the Finals positions by being comprehensively outplayed by a far more impressive Bulldogs outfit. The Power are now outside the Top 8 on percentage, with a 43.8% chance of getting back in for September, which is an alarming drop from their 64.4% probability prior to Round 15.
GO TO 'THE SHOWDOWN' PROJECTIONS 

RICHMOND TIGERS

The Tigers, admirably, refuse to let their lengthy injury list weigh them down and remain firmly in calculations for what would be their sixth AFL Finals campaign in seven seasons. Their win over the Saints on Sunday strengthened their Finals projection to 70.9%, up from 59.1% the week prior.
GO TO THE TIGERS NEXT MATCH

ST KILDA SAINTS

Things are starting to get serious at Moorabbin on a number of fronts. Their Finals prospects are now at a season-low 5% probability, down from 10.7% last week, while coach Alan Richardson is most definitely on the hottest of hot seats according to our AFL Sackometer. The Saints have little room for error from here if they’re to break their eight-year AFL Finals drought.
GO TO THE SAINTS NEXT MATCH

SYDNEY SWANS

This team refuses to die. The Swans have moved to a season-high 12^th on the AFL Ladder and are just a game - and a fair chunk of percentage - outside of the Top 8. Going into the round the Swans sported an 11.4% probability of playing AFL Finals, with that number increased slightly to 13.2%.
GO TO THE SWANS NEXT MATCH

WEST COAST EAGLES

The Eagles have quietly re-emerged as a legitimate chance of back-to-back AFL Premierships. Saturday’s hard-fought victory over the Hawks at the MCG boosted their Premiership chances from 10.8% to 14.6%.
GO TO 'THE DERBY' PROJECTIONS

WESTERN BULLDOGS

The Bulldogs are just a game and percentage outside the Top 8, and when you consider they’ve lost to both Carlton and Gold Coast this season, you can completely understand why Bulldog fans are so frustrated. The Dogs currently have a 15.6% chance of playing AFL Finals in 2019 which is up significantly from the 5.5% chance they were given heading into Round 15.
GO TO THE BULLDOGS NEXT MATCH

SEE ALL STATS INSIDER'S AFL FUTURES PROJECTIONS

While we can’t promise the same calibre of combustibility every week, we will return next week with an updated set of projections indicating just where your favourite - or perhaps, most despised team - is likely to finish in season 2019. 

Did you enjoy this article? Leave a comment below, or join the conversation on the Stats Insider Twitter or Facebook page.