AFL Sackometer: Can Richo survive the Saintly sword?

The 2019 Saints have become one of the league’s most engrossing teams.

Here we are at the halfway point of the season, and it’s still possible to have diametrically opposed views on just where St Kilda is at.

On the one hand, you could argue that this is shaping as yet another chapter in the Saints' book of futility, with Stats Insider’s own AFL Futures projections suggesting they’re a 89.7% chance of missing the 2019 AFL Finals, which would qualify as their eighth straight campaign without September action.

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Alternatively, you could reasonably argue that considering St Kilda’s injury list they’re doing remarkably well, and, at 6-6 - and just a game out of the Top 8 - Alan Richardson has actually overperformed as a senior coach this season, and may even be worthy of a contract extension.

And, it is indeed the figure of Alan Richardson which looms over everything happening at Moorabbin at the moment, especially considering how frustrating this decade has been for the Saints faithful, and particularly considering the St Kilda hierarchy is yet to make a commitment to him beyond this season.  

With Brad Scott and Brendan Bolton already being dismissed from their posts this season, the AFL public has naturally turned its attention to Richardson as being the next most logical coach to face the axe. 

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And as morbid at such attention might seem, it’s a genuine question for a club sick to death of their bottom-half status.

Richardson has occupied the top post at Moorabbin for 123 games now, which will soon enough make him the second-longest tenured coach in St Kilda’s 120-year history.

Yet, Richardson boasts just a pedestrian 36% win rate which places him third worst among active AFL coaches, and has failed to take the club to a single Finals series throughout his six-year reign.

Considering how much media attention Richardson’s job status has garnered, are we actually being too harsh on a guy who’s actually doing as good a job as possible considering the cards he’s been dealt?

While the North Melbourne and Carlton moves to oust their coaches were entirely understandable considering the continual regression of both clubs, St Kilda’s situation isn’t in the same ballpark.

With just ten games to go, the Saints are as close to a September berth as they’ve been in years, with a particularly gentle schedule from here on in, pitting them against just two teams (Geelong and Adelaide) who are presently occupying a top-four spot.

In fact, through twelve games, the Saints are playing as tough as they ever have under Richardson, with his troops playing disciplined, committed football week in, week out (with the exception of their Shanghai slaying), despite a list of available players that bears little resemblance at all to the one Richardson was convinced he’d have at his disposal over the last off-season.

The Saints have received precisely one games service out of their expensive and high-profile recruit, Dan Hannebery. Jake Carlisle has played just one senior game in 2019, while four-time Best and Fairest winner, Jack Steven, has had multiple mental health breaks to manage just the four games this year.

Former #1 AFL Draft selection, Paddy McCartin, has suffered at least eight concussions since being drafted, while star defender, Dylan Roberton, was forced into a second consecutive year on the sidelines before the season even began, due to a heart condition.

Last year’s #4 pick, Max King, survived a huge scare over the weekend and is still yet to debut this season, following ACL surgery in 2018.

That the Saints continue to persevere and remain in the hunt for September action is in strong part due to Richardson’s diligence, in concert with the Saints recruiting team which continues to unearth underrated senior players such as Rowan Marshall, Callum Wilkie and Matthew Parker, who have all contributed strongly to the Saints refusal to collapse under the weight of injury.

So, if we accept the Saints are doing well this season despite their extreme misfortune, why is it that Richardson remains so firmly in the coaching spotlight, and why haven’t the St Kilda hierarchy found it in themselves to extend his contract beyond this season?

Because truthfully, the Saints remain an unquestionably run of the mill football club who still seem quite a distance away from genuine AFL Premiership contention.

This is a club which continues to falter when pitted against teams ranked higher, with Richardson owning a 16-73 (17.98%) record against teams above his own on the ladder. 

Under Richardson, it can’t be denied that the Saints are a committed, nose to the ground outfit. They’re fifth in the competition for tackle differential at +4.3, and have won all five of their matches against teams below them. 

Actually, Richardson's Saints are on an 18-game winning streak since 2016 against inferior ranked opposition. 

While the Saints toughness and ability to remain in the Finals conversation is admirable, and, while it's clear they're able to get the job done against weaker opposition, the football world is entitled to wonder whether perhaps a more innovative coach could be more successful against the better teams.

In many respects, the Saints mirror the Western Bulldogs under former coach Brendan McCartney, who implemented a hard-edged, competitive game-plan, yet was simply unable to improvise against the upper class of the league. 

When the Bulldogs finally moved on from McCartney to appoint Luke Beveridge, the 'Dogs became a much more nuanced outfit, and within two seasons were crowned AFL Premier.

Perhaps a similar coaching change is simply what St Kilda is crying out for?

Whether a Finals appearance this season is enough to satisfy the Saints' brains-trust remains to be seen, while it's also entirely possible that Richardson's coaching is improving by the season, and is entitled to oversee at least one more season with what he hopes will be a healthy list.

Whichever direction the Saints go, they most certainly have the football world’s attention once again in 2019.

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