AFL Finals Probabilities: Where your club currently stands

We’ve officially crossed the half-way mark of the 2019 AFL season and it’s been an eventful season so far. 

Geelong can’t seem to stop winning.

The Suns have already played six matches in which the final margin was less than a goal.

The Stats Insider AFL Sackometer has already seen two casualties; and, although Christmas is six months away, Collingwood's Jaidyn Stephenson might’ve already made Santa’s ‘bad boy‘ list.

Mathematically, all 18 teams can still play Finals footy in September. 

READ: INSIDE THE WORLD OF A SPORTS DATA ANALYST

Thanks to 11 wins from 12 matches, the Stats Insider AFL Futures suggests Geelong are a 99.95% chance, and, are almost certain to make it to the pointy end of the season. The Magpies at 97.96% and the Giants at 96.45% are seemingly likely to accompany the Cats into September, in the absence of a monumental collapse from any of those three clubs.

With the Eagles (84.6%) and Crows (78.4%) also looking fairly comfortable, it might be a dog fight between Fremantle, Richmond, Brisbane, Port and Essendon for the remaining three finals spots. The Saints (26.5%), with a somewhat soft run home, will be lurking around the corner, waiting to pounce should others slip up. The Hawks and the rest of the pack would need a real miracle in the last 10 weeks of the home-and-away season to make the finals, but hey, we’ve seen stranger things happen in sports.

Our AFL Futures model again projects Geelong (98.8%) and Collingwood (80.4%) as the favourites to finish in the Top-4, along with the Giants (74.1%). West Coast (43.5%) are most likely to steal the last second-chance spot, but a late charge from Adelaide (27.7%), Brisbane (15.9%), Fremantle (20.7%) or Richmond (14.6%) could really shake things up.

READ: RANKING AFL CLUBS IN KEY METRICS

Geelong are a massive 80.3% chance to be Minor Premiers this season as per the Stats Insider model. Although there is only an 8-point gap between the top-3 teams, the fact that Geelong have an easier schedule puts them in the driving seat to finish first. The Cats don’t face any team currently in the AFL's Top-5 after the month of June, and matches against the lowly Bulldogs, Blues, Saints, Kangaroos and Swans shouldn't bother them too much. 

In contrast, Collingwood has three matches away from home against current Top-5 teams, and the Giants have only four home matches left this season, one of which is against the Magpies, in what looms as a potential 8-point game for home ground advantage in the first week of September action.

SEE ALL AFL FUTURES PROJECTIONS

The Cats are a 47.5% chance to play off in the AFL Grand Final, with a 26.6% probability of ultimate success. Collingwood (35.5%) and GWS (35.1%) are also looking good to make the final weekend of the season, while the current AFL Premiers, West Coast, have a 19% chance to play in their second consecutive AFL Grand Final.

One or two surprise wins and losses could really shake up the standings heading into September action.

There’s still a long way to go till the end of the home-away season, but as things stand, Geelong are definitely the team to beat, and the battle for the Top-4 and Top-8 spots seem intriguing ones as the storylines for each team play out through the rest of the season.

CHECK OUT THE FUTURES PROJECTIONS FOR ALL AFL TEAMS

Did you enjoy this article? Leave a comment below, or join the conversation on the Stats Insider Twitter or Facebook page.