How the Raiders went from being a Mid-Table team to Premiership Contenders

So, the Raiders are really good.

Outside of those wearing green glasses in the capital, few predicted they would be quite this high up on the ladder through 20 rounds. The general consensus seemed more aligned to another year of the Raiders falling short of their potential and clawing their way to a Top 8 spot at best.

Heck, I staked a medium Big Mac Combo's worth on the Raiders to end up holding the wooden spoon at $13.

It's still sitting there in the 'Pending' pile without the option to cash out and forget. A reminder of my biggest flop across the three years watching rugby league has been a full-time job won't disappear for another five rounds.

The Raiders weren't my pick for the spoon, but there seemed to be value in the price.

A lot of the perceived value came from another misguided presumption.

Doubts around Jack Wighton as a five-eighth didn't stem from a lack of ability. More, a lack of trust. Wighton hadn't played five-eighth since 2014. Playing 85 of his next 86 games at fullback, it wasn't until he strung together 13 solid performances to start 2018 that he looked to be reaching his potential.

Wighton had only just become a consistently serviceable fullback before being suspended for the rest of the 2018 season. How long would this transition to five-eighth take?

Not long as it turns out.

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Wighton has been great in the number six jersey. He's given the left edge some steel in defence and is always a threat with the ball in his hands. While he's got a few errors in him (29 so far in 2019) and has a tendency to send a few out on the full off the boot, Wighton has played a significant role in the Raiders potent left-side attack. Only Melbourne and Sydney have scored more than Canberra's 32 tries down that side.

The Raiders attack has been typically dangerous overall in 2019.

Averaging 22.8 points per game, the Green Machine ranks third in attack behind the Storm and Roosters. They are an elite attacking side capable of scoring points on any other, but they were the same last season. In fact, the Raiders average 0.6 points fewer than they did in 2018 when finishing 10th.

However, the Raiders will be happy to shave a little of the total if it can continue to be reliable across a full season.

Despite losing Jordan Rapana and Joey Leilua for extended periods on the right side, the Raiders have been able to make up the difference on the left. Wighton's impact has been noted, but it's the development of Bailey Simonsson and Nick Cotric along with the consistency of veteran Jarrod Croker that has done the trick. They've been forced to rotate in and out of the side, but have filled any void they have been asked to beyond expectation.

The same goes for Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad.

Coming out of the Warriors reserve-grade side, the 24-year old has burst onto the scene to build a cult following across his 19 appearances for the Raiders.

His counting stats are impressive. Averaging 176 and 4.4 tackle breaks per game, Nichol-Klokstad is dangerous every time he touches the ball. It's his work done off the ball that has made him one of the most popular players in the NRL, though.

Regularly on his haunches after desperately sprinting across in defence to affect a try-scoring opportunity, there's no doubt Nicoll-Klokstad gives his all on every play. It's that effort that sees him lead the competition in in-goal escapes with four for the season. He embodies everything that is new and improved about the Raiders this season, and if he's not the Buy of the Year, John Bateman will be.

The feisty Englishman has surprised even those that tipped him to succeed in the NRL. He's afraid of nothing. The better the player opposite him, the better Bateman plays. Both in attack and defence, opposing sides haven't quite figured him out.

At 185cm and 96 kg, Bateman is far from the biggest backrower in the competition. That doesn't stop him from crunching 33.9 tackles per game. He will hit the man opposite and do everything he can to frustrate the attacking player into making an error before standing there unphased by the verbal or physical barbs sent his way after the play-the-ball. In attack, he's finding 112 running metres per game to score four tries and hand out three try assists.

As impressive as the individuals have performed throughout 2019, it's Josh Hodgson pulling the strings.

Perhaps the most underappreciated elite player in the competition, the Englishman is in superb form. He isn't blessed with the counting stats that a Damien Cook might be, but Hodgson is a genius behind the ruck. He's playing out a whole set in his mind before the Raiders even receive the ball, but gives himself the option of playing what's in front of him should the opportunity arise.

Getting through a fairly regulation set against the Warriors last week, Hodgson spots not only the three on four mismatch but also the trailing A defender struggling to get back in the defensive line.

A quick scoot out of dummy half catches Kodi Nikorima flat-footed. Gerard Beale is then forced to come in to help his five-eighth, and it's an easy shift through the hands to score from there.

Hodgson isn't the first name people think of when considering Canberra's premiership credentials, but he's the most important.

While the Englishman holds the key to the Raiders success in attack, it's the changes in team defence that have cost me a wager and caught the rest of the competition by surprise.

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Ricky Stuart knew in August last year that if he could fix the defence, his side would climb the ladder:

"We need to find exactly the reason of why this is happening. I need to find the exact cause or reason. We need to correct it. We're not in the [top] eight and we need to be in the eight. It's just not acceptable. I feel that we are a football team that can fix it. And when we do that, I feel we can be a threat."

The Raiders allowed 22.5 points through them per game in 2018 for the 13th-ranked defence in the competition. It was the main contributor to their regular blown leads, and ultimately cost them a place in the finals.

Stuart changed a few things up in his preseason training. Putting the team into simulated game scenarios and asking them to defend a lead for ten minutes ran the players ragged. He didn't give his team a ball for the first two months. Instead, Stuart had the players work on their endurance and conditioning. Defensive structures were drilled into them before what they would do with the ball received a mention.

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As a result, the Raiders are second in defence this season conceding just 14.6 points per game. History suggests that a defence this effective is worthy of premiership contention.

With a tough draw to end the regular season and the unfamiliar feelings of finals football still ahead for most Raiders players, it's a little too early to crown them as premiers. They're still behind the Storm and Roosters in that list. They're climbing, though. The Rabbitohs have occupied the third spot in the premiership conversation for most of the season, but we might need to put the Raiders there now.

They've earned it, and continue to justify the excitement that continues to build in the capital.

The first thing a successful punter will tell you is not to chase your losses. However, this Raiders side might be worth backing for the premiership if they can navigate the next month with regular wins without injury. 

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