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For and Against: Sydney Roosters winning the Premiership

We determined earlier in the week that the Parramatta Eels are a popular pick as the team many footy fans would most like to see fall flat on their face in October. After arguing for and against their premiership credentials, there's a good chance those that are death-riding the Blue and Gold Army will get their wish. However, it's hard to imagine anybody outside of Bondi being disappointed should the Sydney Roosters fall short of a third consecutive premiership.

They've been the best team for the past two seasons, and despite losing Cooper Cronk over the summer, displayed some scintillating form when the NRL season restarted in May. They've slowed down, but that isn't unexpected. Injuries have certainly played their part, although, Trent Robinson may have rested a handful of his superstars along the way had the injury gods not struck.

Remarkably, a team that lost one of the best halfbacks to ever play the game over the off-season still has the highest ceiling of all 16 clubs. The addition of Sonny Bill Williams may see that ceiling rise further too. But with closer than anticipated wins over the New Zealand Warriors (18-10), Gold Coast Titans (18-12) and St. George-Illawarra Dragons (24-16) sandwiched by losses to the Canberra Raiders (24-10) and Melbourne Storm (24-6) between Round 10 and 14, the Roosters look beatable in 2020. 

With the air of invincibility displaying the slightest puncture and finals only five rounds away, it's time to look at why the Roosters might win their third-consecutive premiership and why they might not.

For Winning the Premiership

1. James Tedesco
2. Daniel Tupou
3. Josh Morris
4. Joseph Manu
5. Brett Morris
6. Luke Keary
7. Kyle Flanagan
8. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves
9. Jake Friend
10. Siosiua Taukeiaho
11. Boyd Cordner
12. Angus Crichton
13. Isaac Liu

With long-term injuries considered, that is the team most would expect the Roosters to send out on Grand Final night should they be there. That's a mighty fine starting 13 for the biggest game of the year.

The backline is the best in rugby league.

James Tedesco might be a touch out of form right now, but we can forgive him for taking his foot off the gas for a few weeks given his dominance over the last 24 months. The Morris twins combine to be two of the best try scorers and stoppers in rugby league history while Joseph Manu is an attacking powerhouse and Daniel Tupou is the most underrated backline player in the game right now.

Luke Keary has proven more than capable of leading the team around the field despite losing Cooper Cronk over the summer. Questions still remain over Kyle Flanagan, but he's surrounded by enough quality that he won't be short of help on either side of the ball.

In the middle, Jared Waerea-Hargreaves and Siosiua Taukeiaho combine to be one of the best prop pairings in the NRL. Angus Crichton and Boyd Cordner achieve the same in the back row while Isaac Liu is a willing and able middle forward that is prepared to do whatever is asked of him within the game plan. 

It's an excellent starting 13.

One that is yet to start a game in 2020...

The Roosters are yet to field the team most likely to start a Grand Final yet they've still won ten of their 15 games, lead the competition in scoring at 26.1 points per game, and play with the fourth-best defence conceding just 14.3 points per game

No team looks better and more in-sync than the Roosters at their best. They fall into shape in attack like no other side to be ready to capitalise on any try-scoring opportunity that arises. Just watch Angus Crichton in this clip:

He overruns the first play, but within seconds, is back in shape ready to fill in outside Tedesco on a block play. 

The Roosters are well-drilled and their attack has the highest ceiling of all 16 teams. With a defence that has proven to improve further when finals footy arrives, they're well-positioned for the three-peat.

If the Roosters can keep their place inside the top four on the NRL ladder through to the end of Round 20 (they have a middling remaining schedule) and get healthy in time for the finals, they may go into October as favourites

Against Winning the Premiership

The Roosters have always played a high-risk, high-reward brand of football. 

They've been toward the top of the list in errors and bottom in completion rate throughout their two premiership-winning seasons and into 2020.


2020
2019
2018
Errors Per Game
11.6 (3rd)
11.5 (4th)
10.6 (1st)
Completion Rate
76.7% (13th)
75.0% (14th)
76.4% (13th)

However, the errors appear to be getting the better of the Roosters in 2020. They've averaged only 9.5 errors in the ten games they've won this season and 15.8 errors in the five they've lost. Even if we were to put the games before the season was suspended down to rusty and a tougher pre-season than everybody else, the errors against the Storm (twice) and Raiders define much of what went wrong for the Roosters in those defeats. Despite scoring 25 and 20 points in two of those games, they gave an excellent opposition too many chances with the football and paid the ultimate price. 

It threatens to be their downfall again should they produce anything similar in October.

Round: Opponent
Errors
Completion Rate
Points Scored
Round 1: Panthers
15
69%
14
Round 2: Sea Eagles
15
70%
8
Round 8: Storm
18
64%
25
Round 10: Raiders
14
66%
20
Round 14: Storm
17
66%
6

Now, a lack of cohesion and being without key players for many of those losses and games overall will play a part. As good as the above example of Crichton falling into place so quickly is, it's reliant on an understanding of those around you and is developed quickest by playing inside and outside the same faces. That's a luxury the Roosters haven't had this season.

Should players not return until it's too late or perhaps not at all, we're not going to see the best version of the Roosters this season. They're not the bulletproof team of seasons prior right now with the Storm currently above them in the Stats Insider futures rankings.

Looking Ahead

Having recently tipped the Storm to lift the Provan-Summons Trophy to send Cameron Smith off in style, that hasn't changed. 

Winning premierships is hard. 

Winning two in a row is so hard that no side had ever done it before the Roosters.

To win three on the bounce is rising to another level we've never seen in the NRL era.

The Roosters have the list to do it and the coach to guide them. They remain the team to beat if all 16 are assured of playing their best football on any given day. However, given the history of premiership winners past, the chink in their armour, and the likes of the Storm, Eels and Penrith Panthers grow stronger around them, to lift the trophy for a third straight season looks a step too far right now.

Jason Oliver

As far as Jason is concerned, there is no better time of year than March through June. An overlap of the NBA and NRL seasons offer up daily opportunities to find an edge and fund the ever-increasing number of sports streaming services he subscribes to. If there's an underdog worth taking in either code, he'll be on it.

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