World Cup Forensics: Serbia vs Brazil

Brazil require a win or draw against Serbia in their final Group Stage to progress to the Knockout Stages, but that is far from certain amidst patchy form and going up against a very tough Serbian outfit.

Tite's squad left it late against Costa Rica, just barely escaping a draw thanks to two late goals from Philippe Coutinho and Neymar. Their intense pressure on Costa Rica eventually paid off, as they found a way through Los Ticos defence at long last.

Serbia are up against it in their quest to qualify for the Knockout Rounds, a win would put them through whilst a draw is only helpful if Switzerland lose to Costa Rica by two or more goals.

The Brazilian squad is expected to lineup the same as last time out, with Danilo and Douglas Costa sidelined with injuries. Discipline instead of injury is Serbia's main worry, with Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, Luka Milivojevic, Aleksandar Mitrovic, Aleksandar Prijovic, Nemanja Matic and Branislav Ivanovic all on yellow cards.

Serbia are winning just 13% of Stats Insider Models' 10000 simulations, with Brazil winning an impressive 66% of the time and a draw coming in at 21%. It seems Brazil's quality wins out the majority of the time despite Serbia's own quality.

This could be a scrappy encounter with what both teams require, and there's a 12% edge on Under 2.5 Goals. At $1.90 it is tempting, but the Brazilian attack is too talented for me to trust this to be a low scoring affair.

The Both Teams To Score market only reinforces my belief that these are markets we should stay away from. You're far better off looking at goalscorer markets or the win-draw-win markets if you want value in this game.

In all competitions, Brazil are unbeaten in 13 matches (9 wins, 4 draws), conceding just three goals in that run. It's hard to bet against them since Tite took charge, he's truly found the best system to build around Neymar as their talisman.

He has been directly involved in 18 goals in his last 17 appearances for the national side (10 goals, 8 assists), and has a record at International level (56 goals, 87 appearances) that few can match up against.

Serbia will be all guns blazing in this game because a draw is simply too risky, because relying on Costa Rica to thrash Switzerland is not a smart game plan. This will play into Brazil's hands and I think they'll dispatch the Serbians swiftly.

Brazil haven't really gotten out of first gear yet, and this might be the game they stamp their authority on the tournament. They are Stats Insider's favourite to win it all at Russia 2018 and this might be the game that we see why.

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