World Cup Forensics: Colombia vs England

England and Colombia go head-to-head in a thrilling Round of 16 battle on Tuesday, as the English look to win their first knockout stage game in a major tournament in 10 years against an in-form Colombian side.

Both teams have made positive impressions on the tournament so far, and Colombia won their group despite their first game against Japan being a disaster after going down to 10 men within the first five minutes.

Additionally, there is a real opportunity for the slight underdogs of the tournament as four big hitters have already been eliminated in Germany, Spain, Portugal and Argentina.

Colombia is sweating on the fitness of James Rodríguez however, as he missed training on Friday and Saturday, and a scan of his calf showed he has swelling - though the Colombian football federation says the muscle is not torn.

England are winning 45% of Stats Insider's 10000 Simulations, with Colombia winning just 25% and a draw coming in at 30%. The model has liked England throughout the tournament and that is no exception here - they have a great track record of form and have impressed so far at the World Cup.

There is a heavy leaning at Under 2.5 Goals with a 7% edge, but at a price of $1.50 there isn't a heap of value there.

Both Teams To Score (No) has a 5% edge, and at $1.70 it's worth considering. If you believe England's resilient defence will hold out Colombia's talented attack this might be for you, but I don't feel fully comfortable about this one.

England are expected to field the XI that took the pitch against Tunisia, with Dele Alli fit now after sustaining a knock. Ruben Loftus-Cheek will take his place on the bench as a result. John Stones is expected to play despite a calf complaint.

Abel Aguilar is likely to play having recovered from the muscle problem that saw him sit out that final Group H win but more than anything else the Colombians will be waiting to see if their talisman in Rodríguez will be available. They simply aren't the same side without their diminutive playmaker.

Both teams will need to be wary of each other at set pieces - three of Colombia's five goals have come from set-pieces (two from corners, one from direct free kick) whilst England scored more goals from dead-ball situations than any other team in the group stages, with six.

England would be silly to underestimate Colombia with or without Rodríguez however, as the Colombians have more than enough talent to progress if the English are not careful. Juan Fernando Quintero has arguably been Colombia's standout player so far and the River Plate starlet has helped carry the burden with Rodríguez sidelined.

Harry Kane will look to add to his 5 goal tally and extend his lead in the Golden Boot race, and Raheem Sterling will be under pressure as he is now 24 games without a goal for England.

This is the toughest match of the Round of 16 to predict, and we might be set for extra time and penalties in this one. England will get through - but only just.

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