Will The Roosters Ever Find Their Best Footy?

In Head vs Heart, the common sense of data goes head-to-head with unbridled power of passion in a weekly battle here on Stats Insider. Sometimes we'll agree, but sometimes we won't. This week the Sydney Roosters head across the ditch to play the New Zealand Warriors. Will the Warriors show they're the real deal or will Sydney show up and trounce them on their own ground?

	Second on the ladder and playing at New Zealand's home of Rugby League, the Heart has fallen for the Warriors in this one. Lock in the H2H win at $1.72; they'll smack them around just like they did in Round 4.
	SI's Models aren't so sure, and neither is Heart. SI has the Roosters covering the 2.5 point spread 60 percent of the time. The models clearly haven't decided that they can trust the Warriors quite yet.
	Considering they wouldn't have covered a +23.5 spread last time they met, it seems unlikely they'd cover +2.5 this time. The Warriors have been on fire at home this season and it's the first time the Chooks have left Sydney all year. This one won't be close.
	No arguments on the last time they met, the Roosters have a lot to prove with a lot of inconsistent footy so far this season. With Shaun Johnson now out again for 3-4 weeks, it'll be a test of Mason Lino to cover his absence. The key battle though shapes up as the one between Roger Tuivasa-Sheck & James Tedesco.
	Lino is the best backup half in the comp and anyone that doesn't have their eyes painted on knows Tuivasa-Sheck is better than Tedesco - especially when playing at home. There is at least a try's difference between these two and the Heart is backing RTS to bag one at some point ($2.80).
	By the numbers: The Roosters are 10-8 ATS as an underdog away from Allianz over the last four seasons while they are 7-2 ATS as an interstate underdog. Perhaps the model indicates that the Roosters took their 30-6 thumping in Round 4 very personally?
	I would too if I lost to the Warriors without Johnson. Nobody loses those games! And when it happens again on Saturday, Warriors fans will be chee-hoo'ing in the rain.
	The Warriors without Johnson makes the Lino vs Cronk battle all the more crucial. Sydney badly needs it's marquee signing to start finding the groove that made him so valuable to the Storm. Saturday might be a prime opportunity for him, which makes me look at Sydney 1-12 @ $3.40.
	It would be a prime opportunity if Lino hadn't dealt to Cronk once already this season. The Heart will knock your Sydney 1-12 on the head and stick to the form guide and a Warriors win @ $1.72.

Office Verdict: the office thinks it'll be a slug fest on a wet track. Take the Under!