Who Will Win the 2023 Women’s Australian Open Final?

The power-hitters of the women’s tour will face off in Saturday’s Australian Open Final, with 5th seed Aryna Sabalenka taking on reigning Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina.

Don’t let Rybakina’s 22nd seeding fool you - she would be a top-10 seed if 2022’s Wimbledon handed out tour points. The Kazakh star has been untouchable through six matches at Melbourne Park, dropping just one set (which was to 2022 finalist Danielle Collins in the third round).

Most impressively, She bulldozed 1st seed and tournament favourite Iga Swiatek in the fourth round. 

Her service games have been the most clinical on tour for close to 12 months now, which heaps the pressure on her opponents to keep finding a first serve.

The new Dunlop tennis balls being used have caused some controversy amongst players, and it’s been evident women that can generate power from the baseline have found the most success across the past fortnight.

No one generates more power than Sabalenka. The 5th seed is the most aggressive player on the WTA Tour.

Every match she plays is effectively won and lost on her racquet. If Sabalenka maintains a healthy balance of winners and unforced errors, she wins. She hasn’t been unable to execute that fiery gameplan for seven straight games at a Grand Slam yet, falling at the semi-final stage three times and never featuring in a final.

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Across the past two weeks her groundstrokes have been unrivalled. She hit 17 forehand winners in her semi-final against Magda Linette, and pounced on every second serve from her Polish opponent.

Her chronic serving yips have still been prevalent - she’s accumulated the third-most double faults of the tournament - but she’s also served 29 aces on her way to six dominant victories.

With all that in mind, how do the two power hitters stack up?

Who Will Win the 2023 Women’s Australian Open Final?

Sabalenka is a year older at 24 years of age, and she holds a 3-1 head-to-head advantage over her Kazakh counterpart.

The only time they’ve met in a Grand Slam was the 2021 Wimbledon fourth round where Sabalenka won in three close sets. She’d also won their two matchups on the hard surface before that meeting, but Rybakina defeated her a month ago in the UAE on hard court.

Rybakina’s key will be to continue her dominant serving performances - she’s the best server Sabalenka has come up against across the last fortnight. Where the Belarusian will typically rely on breaking her opponent to remedy her own serving woes, Rybakina will lean on a high first serve percentage to keep her at bay.

She’s been in a Grand Slam final before just seven months ago, and didn’t let the occasion get the best of her. 

The same cannot be said of Sabalenka - who hasn’t been exposed to a match of this magnitude before, and has dealt with her own mental demons in high pressure situations in the past.

If Sabalenka’s serve fails her on Saturday, Rybakina will just need to stay patient and let her opponent make the mistakes.

Just as it has done her entire career, this match will be won and lost off Sabalenka’s racquet. If she can find the service box on two-thirds of her first serves and keep her groundstrokes clean, she will be lifting her first Grand Slam title at Melbourne Park.

(Photo by Lintao Zhang/Getty Images)