Who Is Built Best To Dethrone Richmond?

Richmond have proved to be the cream of the crop in this year's race for the AFL Premiership, as the reigning Premiers cruised in the second half of the season but still comfortably won the Home and Away season "McClelland Trophy" two games ahead of West Coast who finished 2nd on the ladder.

Led by the second best attack and second best defence in the competition, the Tigers have set a very high bar for their opponents in this year's AFL Finals Series. We know that their rivals all can go to a high gear, but can they do it for four quarters at the MCG when it counts?

Stats Insider dives into the numbers to rank Richmond's fellow contenders against the benchmark of the competition:

West Coast

Ladder Position: 2nd
Make Grand Final %: 34%
Win Grand Final %: 9%
Result Against Richmond: Win by 47 points - Round 9 @ Optus Stadium

West Coast's position as an interstate team has a significant impact on their ability to win the Premiership in 2018. Despite boasting class from the forward line (Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling) to defence (Jeremy McGovern and Shannon Hurn), they are also missing ruckman Nic Naitanui, and superstar midfielder, Andrew Gaff, indefinitely, whilst Kennedy's fitness is not guaranteed. However, the Eagles finished the campaign with a 7-3 interstate record and went 6-3 against the other top-eight teams including a 47 point thrashing of the Tigers, so they are a chance.

Here is how West Coast match up against Richmond in key statistical categories:

Verdict: West Coast have shown all the makings of a contender, and the numbers stack up that way, but it is a big unknown how they would fare against Richmond - particularly on the MCG where the Tigers look near unbeatable. If they can replicate the fast-moving, pinpoint kicking display they produced at Optus Stadium against the Tigers, they have a real chance.

Collingwood

Ladder Position: 3rd
Make Grand Final %: 38%
Win Grand Final %: 20%
Result Against Richmond: Loss by 43 points - Round 6 @ MCG, Loss by 28 points - Round 19 @ MCG

Collingwood are a very intriguing case to unseat the Tigers. They have the best chance according to Stats Insider data to make the Grand Final - outside of Richmond - and their statistics mark them as one of the most complete sides in the competition. Injuries are the big question marks, with injuries to key defenders Lynden Dunn and Matt Scharenberg, Adam Treloar is still out for a few weeks with his hamstring issue, while Daniel Wells, Jamie Elliott and Tim Broomhead won't return this season.

Here is how Collingwood match up against Richmond in key statistical categories:

Verdict: the Pies are as well built as anyone to cause the Tigers difficulties, but their injuries might just be too much to overcome. Make no mistake though, Collingwood are the real deal.

Hawthorn

Ladder Position: 4th
Make Grand Final %: 25%
Win Grand Final %: 9%
Result Against Richmond: Loss by 13 points - Round 3 @ MCG

Hawthorn are the best example of what a great coach and team structure can do for a team, as they possess arguably the AFL's best coach in Alistair Clarkson, and a versatile team structure that seamlessly allows players to slot in and out of the side without many major hiccups. The big question mark with Hawthorn is that they've not played Richmond since early in the year, and we don't know how they truly stack up against a fully charged Tigers outfit.

Here is how Hawthorn match up against Richmond in key statistical categories:

Verdict: Hawthorn have the coach and a team structure that can trouble Richmond - but "how much?" is a true question mark. You'd be silly to count them out, though.

Melbourne

Ladder Position: 5th
Make Grand Final %: 19%
Win Grand Final %: 10%
Result Against Richmond: Loss by 46 points - Round 5 @ MCG

Melbourne shapes up as perhaps the dark horse to keep your eye on heading into the Finals. Though they've been plagued by inconsistency issues this season, their upside projects them as perhaps the second best team in the AFL according to the numbers. Issues remain though, as well as the season-ending injuries to Jesse Hogan and Jake Lever, two irreplaceable parts of this Demons setup. Their midfield is versatile and runs as deep as they come in 2018. Max Gawn's ability to get around the ground will be key to the Demons' potential this September.

Here is how Melbourne match up against Richmond in key statistical categories:

Verdict: they'll have to win four in a row to do it, but Melbourne have the potential to seriously trouble the Tigers. Their versatility and depth is something that can cause issues for Richmond, as well as their compatibility playing on the MCG, which is key.

Sydney

Ladder Position: 6th
Make Grand Final %: 4%
Win Grand Final %: 1%
Result Against Richmond: Loss by 26 points - Round 15 @ Etihad Stadium

Sydney have had a weird season. They had a series of troubling losses at the SCG, where they lost more games than they won in 2018. They've often relied on Buddy Franklin's brilliance to bail them out, as their star forward averaged more goals against the top 8 than bottom 8, illustrating his importance to his team, especially in big games. Franklin aside, the Swans are no longer an elite team on paper or statistically.

Here is how Sydney match up against Richmond in key statistical categories:

Verdict: sorry Swans fans, not this year. Barring a Buddy masterclass four weeks in a row - which is not impossible - it's hard to see Sydney creating anything resembling a realistic Premiership tilt this September.

Greater Western Sydney

Ladder Position: 7th
Make Grand Final %: 6%
Win Grand Final %: 2%
Result Against Richmond: Win by 2 points - Round 17 @ Spotless Stadium

Stats Insider's algorithm doesn't like GWS' chances at all, with the Giants favoured heavily as a first round exit to the Swans in the Sydney derby. They'll need to win four in a row - on the road (kinda) - to do it, and have to overcome a raft of injuries to key players. The Giants have a heap of upside if, and when the likes of Toby Greene and Brett Deledio return to the field, but they just barely got past the Tigers at Spotless. The MCG on Grand Final day would be a bloodbath if last week's 45 point loss to Melbourne is any indicator.

Here is how GWS match up against Richmond in key statistical categories:

Verdict: not this year, Giants. Their loss to the Swans in round 22 from a very winnable position cost them home ground advantage in the Finals and a top-four spot. The end result is likely a first or second-week exit for Leon Cameron's men.

Geelong

Ladder Position: 8th
Make Grand Final %: 13%
Win Grand Final %: 6%
Result Against Richmond: Loss by 18 points - Round 13 @ MCG, Loss by 3 points - Round 20 @ MCG

Geelong come into the Finals off the back of consecutive 100 point thumpings of Fremantle and Gold Coast. Inconsistency has plagued their season, but they seem to have figured out their best playing style - an all-out attack on the corridor. It shellshocked the Tigers in Round 20 and nearly got the best of them late, so do Geelong shape up as one of the best antidotes to the Tigers' poison?

Here is how Geelong match up against Richmond in key statistical categories:

Verdict: Geelong have the top end talent to cause Richmond problems, but the question is how their bottom six fares. Can they contribute enough to make up for their deficiencies? Additionally, the Cats will need to win four games in a row on the road, and that is a huge ask of any team.

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