What the NSW Blues Need to Do to Win Game 2 of State of Origin 2022

The Queensland Maroons are in the box seat for State of Origin 2022 after pulling off an upset 16-10 win in front of 80,000 New South Wales Blues fans in Sydney for Game 1.

With State of Origin Game 2 in Perth and what the Blues hope will be a series-deciding Game 3 at Suncorp Stadium, Billy Slater and the Maroons have two bites at the cherry. 

Brad Fittler, on the other hand, is scrambling and has made a number of changes to the New South Wales squad in the search of a winning formula. 

Some of the changes make sense while others raise eyebrows. Regardless, it's up to the Blues to change their approach, take a few more risks, and send this series to Suncorp at 1-1.

State of Origin Changes for Game 2

NSW coach 'Freddy' Fittler has made a number of changes in response to the Blues' loss in Game 1.

Speaking on State of Origin Game 1 and the changes for Game 2, Brad Fittler said "I was confident with the first team, but I have got to pick a team we can go over there and win with and this is it."

NSW Blues Game 2 Changes

Out: Tariq Sims, Kotoni Staggs, Ryan Matterson, Reagan Campbell-Gillard, Jack Wighton

In: Matt Burton, Siosifa Talakai, Jake Trbojevic, Angus Crichton, Apisai Koroisau

Plenty questioned the selection of Tariq Sims in the first game and clearly he didn't do enough in the eyes of the coaces to retain his spot. Kotoni Staggs wasn't presented with enough opportunities in good ball throughout his 52 minutes in Game 1 and has been shuffled out as a result. 

Excellent in the NRL this season, Ryan Matterson didn't have the same impact off the bench for the Blues, whilst Reagan Campbell-Gillard played well enough but appears to be on the wrong side of Fittler's vibe-based picks

The Blues' fifth out, Jack Wighton, has been ruled out due to Covid restrictions.

Now let's look at NSW's ins, starting with Matt Burton. Burton was rarely mentioned as an option in the centres when predicted team lists were being formed but in hindsight, his selection is right in Fittler's wheelhouse. 

While he has spent the 2022 NRL season in the halves for the Bulldogs, Burton is a proven performer in the centres and his combination with former teammates at the Panthers will help that transition during the week.

Siosifa Talakai, on the other hand, is a strange one. Talkai dominated one game this season, running for 262 metres and scoring two tries against the Sea Eagles in Round 7. Despite this being one of the best 40-minute periods of the season so far, Talakai hasn't been able to maintain anything close to that form. More strange still, he has been selected as a middle forward for NSW. 

Fittler wanted somebody "defensive-minded" in the Blues side for Game 2 and selected Jake Trbojevic to fill the gap. What he really needts though is somebody to slow down the ruck. 

Concerningly, Fittler has repeatedly taken shots at the officiating in Game 1 and made comments about the Maroons being able to slow things down. He's now looking to do the same in Game 2 but the officials prepare like players and will be looking out for any dark arts.

Angus Crichton has been added to the Blues bench and it's very much the right call. Fittler got this one wrong for Game 1 and has made the necessary change. Crichton will play an important role of versatility off the bench with his ability to play centre, backrow and in the middle if required.

The big surprise in for the NSW though is Apisai Koroisau. But it's not Koroisua's selection that's shock, but more so that he's been named to start in the place of Damien Cook. 

Koroisau's guile around the ruck seems better suited to coming off the bench in a dual-hooker line-up, which would allow Cook to run the ball early to get the Blues on the front foot before Koroisau's work around the ruck exposes tired forwards. 

Queensland have used Ben Hunt to play his forwards onto the ball before Grant attacks fatigued middles around the ruck. New South Wales, on the other hand, appears to be going with the opposite approach and hoping Cook's running game does the job either side of halftime.

"When you get beaten, you need to reassess. We have no safety net at the moment. We went into the first game thinking a certain way about how the game would go and what we could do but it didn’t happen." - Brad Fittler.

Beaten and having now reassessed, it remains to be seen whether or not Fittler's changes do the trick.

How the Blues Can Win Game 2 of State of Origin

Simply put, the Blues didn't offer enough with the ball in the 2022 State of Origin opener.

They have the players to move the ball across the field and the ball carriers to lay the platform through the middle. However, Fittler put a huge focus on using his back-five in yardage.

State of Origin Game 1 Stats for NSW Backs

In a vacuum, the numbers look good. Ignoring Staggs who was taken from the field and isn't a noted yardage generator, the rest of the back-five carried the ball over 20 times each with James Tedesco, Brian To'o and Daniel Tupou all registering over 200 running metres. That focus on the back-five generating yardage removes one of their most dangerous weapons, though.

If they are in-field taking the strong carries, the back-five aren't out wide where they can do their best work. In Isaah Yeo, Cameron Murray, Junior Paulo and now Jake Trbojevic, the Blues have the players in the middle to move the ball to the edges. Right now, those attacking players aren't there on the edges, or they're sucking in the big ones after a tough carry.

The Blues back-five will be crucial to their set-starts but 'Freddy' needs to find a better balance. He needs to do the same with his rotations, too.

Yeo, Murray and Payne Haas are his best forwards. That's a trio any rugby league coach would love to build their forward pack around. Not one of them played more than 60 minutes in Game 1...

State of Origin Game 1 Minutes for NSW Forwards

Yeo is arguably the best lock in the NRL and his combination with Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai in attack should be used to its potential, not limited to 50 minutes. Especially when the minutes off the field are either side of halftime where Yeo can expose tired Maroons forwards.

Murray's 50 minutes aren't egregious in isolation, but when put against Liam Martin's ineffective 80 minutes (largely due to the 50 tackles he was asked to make), Fittler made a mistake with how he rotated through his bench and made use of his best and most impactful players.

It appears Fittler went into Game 1 with too much consideration to what the Maroons would do, seemingly making selections based on what he thought they 'might' do.

This Sunday in Perth, the NSW Blues need to determine the game by playing to their strengths. They need to move the ball through the middle to get up the field, isolate defenders and make the defensive line work hard. NSW also need to get up the field into attacking field position where the Panthers element of patience and pressure can have an impact. 

It's not quite Tom Trbojevic and Latrell Mitchell, but the Blues have plenty of strike out wide in To'o, Burton, Tupou, Tedesco and Stephen Crichton. Fittler needs to use them in attacking actions rather than as battering rams. 

With Game 3 at Suncorp Stadium, the Maroons don't need to take too many risks on Sunday night. They won Game 1 by keeping it tight, keeping it simple, and by making the most of limited opportunities in attack. 

Billy Slater will employ a similar approach in this one so it's up to the Blues to take the risks and send Origin 2022 to a decider.

(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)