There is money to be made this weekend and the place to make it is right here at the front bar at Club 20 as we go from strength to strength in season 4 of the AFLW.

Round 1 we returned 16.4% POT, Round 2 saw a 34.8% return and last week, well... look we went up a few gears, didn’t we?

138% POT in Round 3 has left plenty of punters here wondering if we’ve peaked, whether that is as good as it gets.

Well, allow me to repeat with the same confidence a short sentence that a good mate of mine said to me when I asked him in 2004 (then again in 2005) if the Diva could win the Cup again…

Can and will!

AFLW – Round 4

Magpies v Demons 5:35 (AEDT) @ Marvel Stadium, Melbourne

Proper footy oval, no wind, no rain, and two teams who know how to move the footy - this game will be a belter. Lauren Pearce returns for the Demons which will push Cordner back to greatly strengthen the backline and Zanker to play more forward. Jacquie Parry (key fwd) also into the side for the Dees whilst Kate Lynch comes (key fwd) into the Magpies side.

Expect this is a pretty frenetic game with a lot of turnover scoring as both teams look to own the corridor. With Cordner and Meg Downie at the back, we won’t be taking any Magpie key forwards but a few small forwards have strong appeal. Expect Chloe Molloy plays across half back mostly. Livingstone should be able to curtail Cunningham whilst Kate Hore seems the likely matchup for Ash Brazill so we will have to go looking for some value for Demons goal scorers tonight.

Flip a coin. Expect the Dees bounce back tonight in a close one. 

• Dees 
• Dees Line (-2.5)

• Overs (56.5)

• Goalscorers: Allen, Zanker, Parry and Lynch

Tigers v Cats 3:10 (AEDT) @ Queen Elizabeth Oval, Melbourne

Cats in must-win territory against a lesser team that they should beat well here. Can’t see Richmond scoring too many with Meg McDonald back for Geelong. Anna Teague (defender) and Kate Darby (key forward) two solid in’s for the Cats.

Expect Geelong are too strong and win well, but the line is enough that an inaccurate Cats effort could make it too close for comfort and Geelong have struggled to convert inside 50 chances (or even get them). Should live down there though. 

• Cats Line (-13.5)

• Cats 25+

• Goal Scorers: Daniel Higgins, Nina Morrison, Sophie Van De Hueval

Kangaroos v Suns 5:10pm (AEDT) @ Arden Street Oval, Melbourne

Markets overestimating Kangas here, or underestimating Suns. Or both. Yes the Kangas beat up on the Tigers last week, but the Suns pressure will be better and the final score last week flattered North in the end, the Tigers could and should have kicked another 3-4 majors. 

Danielle Hardiman back for North is a plus, as is midfielder Mia King on debut, but this kind of line is pretty rare in AFLW and against a side that prides itself on pressure and tackling as the Suns do, this game could easily turn into an arm wrestle. I can get the Suns to 2.3 which means North have to kick 40pts. Not loving the bet. Much prefer to throw a few darts on some Goal Scorers and move onto the next game.

•  Suns Line (+24.5)

• Goal Scorers: Kate Gillespie-Jones, Ash Riddell, Kate Surman, Jasmine Garner

Eagles v Bulldogs @ 7:10 (AEDT) @ Leederville Oval, Perth

The Eagles will struggle to avoid another pasting here. Despite the Dogs lackluster start to the season, they SHOULD have beaten the Blues by a decent margin last week had they kicked straight. This game comes at the right time to really click them into gear forward of center.

Munyard and Gutknecht both great inclusions for the Doggies, their midfield is now very deep. Eagles will struggle to score with Lauren Spark down back for the Bulldogs. Just have too many doing too little for the Eagles.

• Dogs Line (-12.5)

• Dogs 20+

• Dogs 25+

• Dogs 40+

• Goal Scorers: Bonnie Toogood, Hayley Munyard, Britney Gutknecht, Kirsty lamb

Crows v Blues 1:10pm (AEDT) @ Hisense Stadium, Adelaide

We already jumped on the Crows at the line on Tuesday when it was -6.5 so we’re pretty happy with ourselves there given it’s now out to -12.5. The reason is primarily Erin Phillips has been named for the Crows in this GF replay that is likely to play out much as it did in the granny last year (sans the ACL’s hopefully).

Phillips will play 80-20 forward-mid and she will dominate in that forward line. She released Daniell Ponter to go up the ground looking for it, also Eloise Jones can now get up and take some grabs then turn and go – they all know all they have to do is kick it to Erin. Courtney Cramey out is a blow to the Crows defence but I don’t expect the ball will be there much. 

• Crows line (yes, still!)

• Crows 20+

• Crows 25+

• Crows 40+

• Goal Scorers: Erin Phillips, Danielle Ponter, Stevie-Lee Thompson

Saints v Dockers 3:10pm (AEDT) @ RSEA Park, Melbourne

The line for the Saints is too low for mine. Dockers should be able to expose the Saints defence with speed and score heavily from it. Freo have a good ruck advantage which should translate to clearances. Add Kiara Bowers and yeah, we’re loading up on Freo this week.

• Dockers Line (-12.5)
• Dockers 20+ 

• Dockers 25+

• Dockers 40+

• Goal Scorers: Roxy Roux, Gemma Houghton

Lions v Giants 5:10pm @ Hickey Park, Brisbane

Jess Weutschner named to return and her inclusion greatly increases the Lions scoring ability. She is a vital link between the midfield and deep forward. Possibly gets the matchup with Elle Bennets. 

Full disclosure, I don’t think the Lions are as good as their ladder position is, but I don’t really rate the Giants either. Until their pressure drops off, you have to take the Lions at home against the Giants who are relying on a 40 year old Irish woman fresh off a broken leg who can’t really kick straight to be in/stay in games. 

• Lions line (-6.5) 

• Goal Scorers: Jessy Wardlaw

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