Two Relative Outsiders That Could Reach the World Cup Semi-Finals

The World Cup is less than a month away, and excitement is already building ahead of the tournament kicking off in North America. European champions Spain arrive as narrow favourites to lift the trophy, buoyed by their dominant displays in Germany two years ago on the way to a record-breaking fourth European Championship.

One popular website offering sports betting in Canada currently positions Spain as the clear 9/2 frontrunner, with teenage prodigy Lamine Yamal being key to their hopes. They are closely followed by 5/1 shots France, who have reached each of the last two World Cup finals, winning the first, and England.

So, with the tournament fast approaching, which teams should we watch closely? Who will exceed expectations? Who could be headed for a disappointing early exit? And perhaps most importantly, which nations have the quality, momentum and path to put together a deep run to the semi-finals – and maybe even beyond? Here are two teams that could be strong contenders in 2026.

Germany 

Germany is the second most successful team in World Cup history, having won the tournament four times over the years. However, since their most recent success in Brazil in 2014, Die Mannschaft have endured a miserable time on the global stage. They were shockingly eliminated in the group stage in 2018 after falling victim to the "champions' curse" in Russia, and they suffered another early exit in Qatar four years later. As such, they head to North America somewhat unfancied.

Julian Nagelsmann's side is currently positioned as a 12/1 fringe contender. They are not quite at the level of the favourites, but they are also well clear of the outsiders, with the Netherlands leading the outsiders at 20/1. However, we think they very well might be able to mount a march to the semi-finals.

This German team is stacked with young and talented attacking midfielders, with each of Jamal Musiala, Florian Wirtz, and teenager Lennart Karl capable match-winners on their day. At the opposite end of the field, Germany has experience in all the right areas. Joshua Kimmich remains one of the finest deep-lying playmakers on the planet, while central defenders Antonio Rudiger and Jonathan Tah are up there with the very best of them. In goal, Manuel Neuer is set for a spectacular return to the scene at the age of 40, despite retiring from international football two years ago.

Die Mannschaft would be hoping to top Group E ahead of Ecuador, the Ivory Coast, and debutants Curaçao. Should they do so, they would potentially face France in the last 16, and the bookies would favour Les Bleus to win. However, the French no longer have either Antoine Griezmann or Olivier Giroud in their ranks, two of the key players who were instrumental in their success on the way to the trophy in 2018 and again on their way to the final against Argentina four years later. Without them, Germany could well find a way past Didier Deschamps' side and into the quarter-finals.

🎥 For your viewing pleasure…

That time 🇦🇷 defeated 🇫🇷 in what many consider to be the best soccer match ever played in the World Cup Final:

pic.twitter.com/dk4yUTfEEV

— Ozoon (@Ozoon_CA) December 31, 2025

There, their rival, the Netherlands, could lie in wait, marking a mouthwatering clash between the two nations on the grandest stage. Germany would likely be favoured to come through that clash and progress to the semi-final in Dallas on July 14. You can currently get odds of 11/4 on Die Mannschaft making it this far.

United States 

Okay, this one's a long shot. But stranger things have happened.

The United States knows it must deliver at the World Cup this summer. Their country will host the vast majority of this tournament, specifically 78 of the 104 matches, including every game from the quarter-finals onwards. And while Mauricio Pochettino's men aren't in their best form, they do have an underrated squad that, on its best day, can compete.

Weston McKennie has been one of the standout players for Juventus this season, and if he brings his best form to the tournament, the USMNT will have a key presence in the centre of midfield. Striker Folarin Balogun has also been in excellent form with Monaco in Ligue 1, netting 19 goals in all competitions so far this term. Experienced defender Chris Richards has shone in the Premier League with Crystal Palace, and that's without mentioning their captain and talisman, Christian Pulisic, who is always a capable match-winner.

Turkey is considered the Stars and Stripes' biggest threat in Group D, where the bookies make the US a 7/5 favourite to top.

If they can top their group, then Belgium will likely await in the round of 16, the same Red Devils team that recently thumped the Americans 5-2 in a friendly in Atlanta. However, hosting a tournament does strange things to a team. Russia was the lowest-ranked team heading into the 2018 World Cup and had not won in a year, but they were still able to mount a march to the quarter-finals, coming within a penalty shootout of the semis.

You can get odds of 9/1 on the Americans reaching the semi-finals, and much of that is down to the aforementioned clash with Belgium, as well as a potential quarter-final against the tournament favourites, Spain. But while La Roja have top billing, they were dumped out in the round of 16 in each of the last two tournaments, losing to Russia in Moscow in 2018 and to underdogs Morocco in 2022. Could the USA end their run in 2026 and secure their spot in the last four?