8 Disposal market bets, 8 Goal Scorer bets and 4 Norm Smith bets – the Club 20 AFL Grand Final bets are in and there’s something for everyone on this most auspicious of punting days.

As expected, there has been mass Melbournian ‘how much better at footy are we than everywhere else’ money that’s just weighing on the markets enough for us to be keen on some Giants at great value, and we are taking some calculated risks with a few Tigers who have had a couple of down weeks.

20 bets, 4 quarters, 1 ripping day!

Disposals Markets

Being grand final day, the bookies have gone all out and given us almost a full suite of player disposal Over/Under lines and I for one feel obliged to punish them for this extra effort on their part!

Trent Cotchin 19.5 Disposals – Over @ 1.89

Has had a low month returning from injury but prior to that he went 8/9 over 20 touches with the 9^th game against the Saints finishing on 19 disposals. There are no tomorrow’s today for Cotch to save the body from, he will play four quarters and needs to find it given no Graham and likely Dusty/Houli run-withs.

Jayden Short 17.5 Disposals – Over @ 1.95

Expect that Reid gets the role with Houli. No way they let him roam free today, they would have been watching intently that third quarter against the Cats in the Prelim when he flicked the Tigers into gear. If he is curtailed (or even if he isn’t), Short looks very capable of clearing 18. 7 of his last 10 games have gone over 20 touches, just not his last two which is why we’re getting the discount.

Daniel Rioli 10.5 Disposals – Over @ 1.87

All. Day. Rioli can have a big game here and kind of needs to. I suspect that Pickett will take Rioli’s pressure forward role for large chunks of this game, he has cleared 11 disposals in 14/20 games this season. Again, just not the last fortnight (7 and 9 respectively). Should be around 12-13 mark so we’re taking the discount again.

Adam Tomlinson 15.5 Disposals – Over @ 1.77

Tomlinson had 15 last week in a heavily rain-effected game, but his MCG season average (including Optus) reads; 19, 22(v Tigers at MCG), 18, 20 (Optus). With clear skies forecast, it Tomlinson seems a really safe play here. 

We are of course taking these selections as single bets and also in a four-leg multi, but we are also going to take 3x3-leggers to guard against the one guy who invariably stuffs everything up for us. These disposal bets are our main safety plays today so we need them to hit so if (when) our big hail mary bets fail we are still in the green come final siren. So that’s 8 bets it total in this section.

• Cotchin, Short, Rioli, Tomlinson Overs @ 13.00
• Cotchin, Short, Rioli Overs @ 6.50
• Cotchin, Tomlinson,Rioli Overs @ 6.25
• Tomlinson, Short, Rioli Overs @ 7.00
• Cotchin, Tomlinson, ShortOvers @ 6.75

Norm Smith Medal – Lachie Whitfield @ 17, Harry Perrman @ 251

We already have two bets in this market from last week with Prestia at $17 (now into $10) and Cameron at $51 (into $18) so there’s no real need to go again at lesser odds.

However, the 251-1 about Harry Perryman has us biting and the price for Whitfield is more than fair considering the Tigers won’t put a hard tag on him on a dry day at the MCG. If the Giants win he will be a big show.

Goal Scorer - Josh Caddy 2+, 3+, 4+, 5+ Goals

He is not spending much time forward lately and could be called upon for more midfield work than normal here, but there are stupid odds for a Caddy who is a guy who can take a grab up forward and kick a few goals. Despite the arrival of Lynch, Caddy has had multiple shots on goal 9 times this season, with 2x2 goal and 2x3 goal hauls. Really this is a play for a 2-3 goal gf which is achievable, he should get the looks, but we couldn’t stop there so we’re spending some GF capital and riding for luck. At $10 (2), $60 (3), $250 (4) and the lazy odds of $2000-1 for a big grand final bag, if he hits then we could all be watching the 2020 granny on our yachts.

Goal Scorer - Jacob Hopper 1+, 2+, 3+, 4+ Goals

People associate goals with Josh Kelly and Steven Coniglio, but Hopper gets his share of looks and at these prices, he has to be our man. We’re on at $3.50 for one goal, $25’s for 2 goals, a crazy $150 for 3 goals and $1000-1 for a career four-goal game. Now, it’s highly unlikely he gets more than one, if that, but he has had a scoring shot in 12/22 games this season, kicked at least one goal in 6 games this season and had a double and a triple as well. His 3.1 six weeks ago against the Swans really sticks out in my mind. If he kicks one, then great, money back no harm done. But if he grabs a second then it’s a huge day with the potential for a reeeeaallllly big one.

Drop a comment at the bottom of the page (or on Twitter) to tell us where you think the value is this week 👇