Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction - US Open 2026
Last updated: Sep 6, 2026, 10:02AM | Published: Sep 5, 2026, 7:09AM
Tommy Paul will sqaure off with Carlos Alcaraz in the fourth round of the US Open Men's Singles 2026 on Monday.
This article features Stats Insider's top betting tips for the Paul vs Alcaraz match, plus the latest betting odds in Australia.
Who Will Win?
Using advanced computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated the result of Monday's Paul-Alcaraz men's singles match 10,000 times.
Our independent predictive analytics model gives Alcaraz an 82% chance of winning against Paul in the US Open Men's Singles 2026.
Paul vs Alcaraz: Odds
The latest betting odds in Australia for Monday's US Open 2026 match between Paul and Alcaraz are shown here:
- Head to Head: Paul $5.00, Alcaraz $1.16
- First Set: Paul $3.40, Alcaraz $1.33
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, TAB currently has Paul at $5.00 and Alcaraz at $1.16.
TAB currently has odds for Paul to win the first set at $3.40 and odds for Alcaraz to win the first set at $1.33.
Paul vs Alcaraz: Betting Tips
- Head to Head: Paul at $5.00 with TAB
- First Set: Alcaraz at $1.83 with TAB (53% probability)
Stats Insider's Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz predictions are based on complex simulations and betting intelligence to provide you with the best possible advice every day of the year.
Although our predictive analytics model indicates that Alcaraz is more likely to win the match, taking Paul to win is our preferred option because of the edge we identified when comparing our data-led probabilities to the odds that are currently available.
Taking advantage of the edges published on Stats Insider is one of the keys to being a profitable bettor over the long run.
And while Alcaraz is more likely to win the first set on this occassion, our suggested bet of Alcaraz ($1.83) is based on the chance of that happening, per our model, and the betting odds currently available.
Paul vs Alcaraz: Prediction
Stats Insider provides full betting coverage of the Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz match at the US Open 2026 tournament, including data-driven predictions and free betting tips.
Remember, our model updates regularly, so bookmark this page for the latest betting analysis before the Paul-Alcaraz match in the US Open Men's Singles 2026.
As always, see Stats Insider's Best Bets for the best tips on every tennis match, as well as predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Paul vs Alcaraz: US Open 2026 Essential Details
The US Open 2026 match between Tommy Paul and Carlos Alcaraz is scheduled to start at 4:00am AEST.
- Match: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz
- Date: Monday 7 September 2026
- Approx. Time: 4:00am AEST
- Event: US Open Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Fourth round
All dates and times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
Our Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz predictions are the result of 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, all curated by our team of skilled data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our tennis tips are accurate and reliable, giving you the knowledge you need to make informed decisions with confidence.
If you choose to use our tennis predictions for betting purposes, it's crucial to gamble responsibly and know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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