Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction - US Open 2026
Last updated: Sep 6, 2026, 6:02PM | Published: Sep 5, 2026, 7:09AM
Tommy Paul will take on Carlos Alcaraz in the fourth round of the US Open Men's Singles 2026 on Monday.
This article features Stats Insider's best betting tips for the Paul vs Alcaraz match, plus the latest betting odds in Australia.
Who Will Win?
Using advanced machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated the result of Monday's Paul-Alcaraz men's singles match 10,000 times.
Our proven predictive analytics model currently gives Alcaraz an 80% chance of beating Paul in the US Open Men's Singles 2026.
Paul vs Alcaraz: Odds
The latest betting odds in Australia for Monday's US Open 2026 match between Paul and Alcaraz are listed below:
- Head to Head: Paul $4.50, Alcaraz $1.20
- First Set: Paul $3.40, Alcaraz $1.33
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, TAB currently has Paul at $4.50 and Alcaraz at $1.20.
TAB currently has odds for Paul to win the first set at $3.40 and odds for Alcaraz to win the first set at $1.33.
Paul vs Alcaraz: Best Bets
- Head to Head: Paul at $4.50 with TAB
- First Set: Alcaraz at $1.83 with TAB (51% probability)
Today's Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz best bets are based on market-leading modelling and wagering expertise to help you place smarter bets with your chosen online bookie.
Even though our predictive analytics model suggests that Alcaraz is more likely to win the match, betting on Paul to win is the best option because of the edge we identified when comparing our data-led probabilities to the odds that are currently available.
Taking advantage of the edges seen here at Stats Insider is pivotal to being a profitable sports bettor over the long run.
And while Alcaraz is more likely to win the first set on this occassion, our suggested bet of Alcaraz ($1.83) is based on the likelihood of that happening, per our model, and the betting odds currently available.
Paul vs Alcaraz: Prediction
Stats Insider provides full coverage of the Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz match at the US Open 2026 tournament, including data-driven predictions and live win probabilitiestips.
Remember, our model updates frequently, so keep checking this article for the latest betting analysis before the Paul-Alcaraz match in the US Open Men's Singles 2026.
As always, see Stats Insider's Best Bets to get betting tips for every tennis match, plus predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Paul vs Alcaraz: US Open 2026 Essential Details
The US Open 2026 match between Tommy Paul and Carlos Alcaraz is scheduled to start at 4:00am AEST.
- Match: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz
- Date: Monday 7 September 2026
- Approx. Time: 4:00am AEST
- Event: US Open Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Fourth round
All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
Our Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz predictions are based on 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, all curated by our team of skilled data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our tennis tips are accurate and reliable, giving you the confidence to make informed decisions.
If you decide to use our tennis predictions for betting purposes, it's vital to gamble responsibly and keep track of your money. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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