Thunder vs Heat Prediction and NBA Tips - 12 January 2026
Last updated: Jan 12, 2026, 12:09AM | Published: Jan 11, 2026, 2:10PM
The Oklahoma City Thunder will face the Miami Heat in NBA action at Paycom Center on Monday, commencing at 11:00am AEDT.
With star players Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, the Thunder are up against a Heat side that includes Tyler Herro, Norman Powell and Bam Adebayo.
This article features Stats Insider's prediction and tips for the Thunder vs Heat game, as well as the latest betting odds.
Who Will Win?
Based on trusted machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated the outcome of Monday's Oklahoma City vs Miami NBA game 10,000 times.
Our leading predictive analytics model currently gives the Thunder an 86% chance of winning against the Heat at Paycom Center.
Thunder vs Heat: Odds
The current betting odds in Australia for Monday's NBA game at Paycom Center are shown here:
- Head to Head: Thunder $1.12, Heat $6.50
- Line: Thunder -15 ($1.91), Heat +15 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 234 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, the bookmakers currently have the Thunder at $1.12 and the Heat at $6.50.
The Thunder are listed as 15-point favourites against the Heat, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the underdog Heat (+15) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 234 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's model, the Heat (+15) are predicted to cover the line 57% of the time, while the 234-point over/under is expected to stay under 52% of the time.
Thunder vs Heat: Best Bets
- Head to Head: Miami at $6.50 with Bet365
- Line: Heat +15 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Under 234 at $1.91 with Bet365
When you see a 🔥, you know it's one of Stats Insider's best bets of the day across any sport.
Today's Thunder vs Heat best bets are based on complex simulations and wagering expertise to help you place more informed bets with your chosen online bookie.
While the Thunder have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Heat to win is our preferred option due to the edge found when comparing our data-led probabilities to the odds currently available.
Taking advantage of the edges seen on Stats Insider is one of the keys to achieving long-term success as a punter.
Thunder vs Heat: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Thunder vs Heat at Paycom Center on Monday is the Thunder winning 121-109.
This prediction is based on each team's average score from 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full coverage of the Oklahoma City vs Miami game on Monday, including data-driven predictions and top betting tips.
For more detailed information on this matchup, check out Dimers' Thunder vs Heat prediction, put together by experts in the US.
Remember, our model updates regularly, so refresh this page for the latest betting predictions before the Oklahoma City vs Miami match-up.
As always, see Stats Insider's Best Bets for betting tips for every NBA game, plus predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Thunder vs Heat: Essential Details
The NBA match-up between the Thunder and Heat at Paycom Center is scheduled to start at 11:00am AEDT on Monday.
- Teams: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Miami Heat
- Date: Monday 12 January 2026
- Time: 11:00am AEDT
- Venue: Paycom Center
All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT), unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
Our Oklahoma City vs Miami predictions are based on 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, all curated by our team of expert data scientists and analysts. We use the latest in predictive analytics technology and machine learning to ensure our NBA tips are trustworthy and reliable, giving you the knowledge you need to make informed decisions with confidence.
If you choose to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's important to gamble responsibly and keep track of your money. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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