Texans vs Cowboys Prediction and Preview - NFL Week 4, 2026
Last updated: Sep 30, 2026, 12:36AM | Published: Sep 27, 2026, 4:01AM
The Houston Texans will sqaure off with the Dallas Cowboys in NFL Week 4 action at Reliant Stadium on Monday, starting at 4:00am AEDT.
This article features Stats Insider's prediction and tips for the Texans vs Cowboys game, plus the latest betting odds and touchdown scorer tips.
Who Will Win?
Based on trusted computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated the result of Monday's Houston vs Dallas NFL game 10,000 times.
Our leading predictive analytics model gives the Texans a 57% chance of defeating the Cowboys at Reliant Stadium.
Texans vs Cowboys: Odds
The current Bet365 betting odds in Australia for Monday's NFL game at Reliant Stadium are shown here:
- Head to Head: Texans $1.67, Cowboys $2.25
- Line: Texans -2.5 ($1.91), Cowboys +2.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 47.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has the Texans at $1.67 and the Cowboys at $2.25.
The Texans are listed as 2.5-point favourites against the Cowboys, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the underdog Cowboys (+2.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 47.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's model, the Cowboys (+2.5) are predicted to cover the line 54% of the time, while the 47.5-point over/under is expected to go over 53% of the time.
Texans vs Cowboys: Betting Tips
- Head to Head: Dallas at $2.25 with Bet365
- Line: Cowboys +2.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Over 47.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
Our Texans vs Cowboys best bets are based on complex modelling and betting intelligence to help you place better bets with your chosen online bookie.
While the Texans have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Cowboys to win is our recommended option due to the edge identified when comparing our data-driven probabilities to the odds currently on offer.
Taking advantage of the edges seen on Stats Insider is crucial to achieving long-term success as a punter.
Texans vs Cowboys: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Texans vs Cowboys at Reliant Stadium in Week 4 is the Texans winning 25-23.
This prediction is based on each team's average score from 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full coverage of the Houston vs Dallas game in Week 4, including data-driven predictions and free betting tips.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Texans vs Cowboys: TD Scorer Tips
Who will score the first touchdown in Texans vs Cowboys? The data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Dallas' Javonte Williams is the most likely player to score the first touchdown in Texans vs Cowboys.
Williams has a 15.1% chance of scoring the first TD at Reliant Stadium, while the Cowboys RB has a 55.4% chance of scoring an anytime touchdown.
Scroll down for the full list of first touchdown scorer and anytime touchdown scorer probabilities.
First Touchdown Scorer Tips
Texans First TD Tips
- David Montgomery: 14.7% probability
- Nico Collins: 10.8% probability
- Woody Marks: 4.6% probability
- Dalton Schultz: 4.2% probability
- Kayshon Boutte: 2.8% probability
Cowboys First TD Tips
- Javonte Williams: 15.1% probability
- CeeDee Lamb: 7.7% probability
- Jake Ferguson: 6.0% probability
- George Pickens: 5.7% probability
- Ryan Flournoy: 3.7% probability
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Tips
Texans Anytime TD Tips
- David Montgomery: 59.4% probability
- Nico Collins: 48.4% probability
- Woody Marks: 24.7% probability
- Dalton Schultz: 22.6% probability
- Kayshon Boutte: 15.9% probability
Cowboys Anytime TD Tips
- Javonte Williams: 55.4% probability
- CeeDee Lamb: 33.8% probability
- Jake Ferguson: 27.6% probability
- George Pickens: 26.5% probability
- Ryan Flournoy: 17.9% probability
Texans-Cowboys Projected Player Stats
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Texans' C.J. Stroud is projected for 243 passing yards, while the Cowboys' Dak Prescott is expected to throw for 273 yards.
Texans Starting QB
- C.J. Stroud: 243 projected passing yards
Cowboys Starting QB
- Dak Prescott: 273 projected passing yards
Texans Rushing Yards
- David Montgomery: 57 projected yards
- Woody Marks: 40 projected yards
- C.J. Stroud: 14 projected yards
Cowboys Rushing Yards
- Javonte Williams: 65 projected yards
- Tyler Goodson: 13 projected yards
- Dak Prescott: 12 projected yards
Texans Receiving Yards
- Nico Collins: 77 projected yards
- Dalton Schultz: 50 projected yards
- Kayshon Boutte: 30 projected yards
- Xavier Hutchinson: 27 projected yards
- David Montgomery: 15 projected yards
Cowboys Receiving Yards
- CeeDee Lamb: 79 projected yards
- George Pickens: 71 projected yards
- Ryan Flournoy: 41 projected yards
- Jake Ferguson: 30 projected yards
- Javonte Williams: 18 projected yards
Our model updates frequently, so refresh this article for the latest betting analysis before the Houston vs Dallas match-up.
As always, see Stats Insider's Best Bets for betting tips for every NFL game, plus predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Texans vs Cowboys: Week 4 Essential Details
The NFL Week 4 game between the Texans and Cowboys at Reliant Stadium is scheduled to start at 4:00am AEDT on Monday.
- Teams: Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys
- Date: Monday 5 October 2026
- Time: 4:00am AEDT
- Venue: Reliant Stadium
All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT), unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
Our Houston vs Dallas predictions are the result of 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, carefully curated by our team of experienced data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our NFL tips are trustworthy and reliable, giving you the confidence to make informed decisions.
If you choose to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's vital that you gamble responsibly and keep track of your money. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
More on NFL
Stats Insider is your home for betting on the NFL in Australia, with the latest NFL betting news, predictions for every NFL game, and Super Bowl probabilities for the NFL.
