Storm vs Eels Prediction and Tips - NRL Round 1, 2026
Last updated: Mar 5, 2026, 9:01AM | Published: Feb 26, 2026, 2:21PM
The Storm will face the Eels in NRL Round 1 action at AAMI Park on Thursday, commencing at 8:00pm AEDT.
This article features Stats Insider's prediction and tips for the Storm vs Eels game, plus the latest betting odds and try scorer tips.
Who Will Win?
Utilising trusted machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated the outcome of Thursday's Melbourne vs Parramatta NRL match 10,000 times.
Our independent predictive analytics model gives the Storm a 73% chance of beating the Eels in Round 1 of the 2026 NRL season.
Storm vs Eels: Odds
The current Bet365 betting odds for Thursday's NRL clash at AAMI Park are listed here:
- Head to Head: Storm $1.40, Eels $3.00
- Line: Storm -6.5 ($1.91), Eels +6.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 43.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has the Storm at $1.40 and the Eels at $3.00.
The Storm are 6.5-point favourites against the Eels, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the underdog Eels (+6.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 43.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's model, the Storm (-6.5) are predicted to cover the line 57% of the time, while the 43.5-point over/under is expected to go over 55% of the time.
Storm vs Eels: Best Bets
- Head to Head: Storm at $1.40 with Bet365
- Line: Storm -6.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Over 43.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
If you see a 🔥, you know you've found one of our best bets of the day across any sport.
Our Storm vs Eels best bets are based on market-leading modelling and wagering intelligence to help you place better bets with your chosen online bookie.
Storm vs Eels: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Storm vs Eels at AAMI Park this Thursday is the Storm winning 26-17.
This prediction is based on each team's average score from 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full coverage of the Storm vs Eels match on Thursday, including data-driven predictions and expert tips.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Storm vs Eels: Try Scorers
Are you looking for Storm vs Eels try scorers? The latest data is in.
According to Stats Insider, the Storm's Nick Meaney is the most likely player to score the first try in Melbourne vs Parramatta.
Meaney has a 8.6% chance of scoring the first try at AAMI Park, while the Storm star has a 46.8% chance of scoring a try at any time during the match.
Scroll down for our full list of first try scorer and anytime try scorer probabilities.
First Try Scorer Tips
Melbourne Storm
- Nick Meaney: 8.6% probability
- Will Warbrick: 8.2% probability
- Jahrome Hughes: 5.0% probability
- Sualauvi Faalogo: 4.9% probability
- Harry Grant: 4.8% probability
Parramatta Eels
- Sean Russell: 5.4% probability
- Bailey Simonsson: 5.1% probability
- Will Penisini: 4.6% probability
- Mitchell Moses: 4.4% probability
- Brian Kelly: 4.1% probability
Anytime Try Scorer Tips
Melbourne Storm
- Nick Meaney: 46.8% probability
- Will Warbrick: 45.7% probability
- Jahrome Hughes: 33.3% probability
- Sualauvi Faalogo: 30.3% probability
- Harry Grant: 29.4% probability
Parramatta Eels
- Sean Russell: 35.2% probability
- Bailey Simonsson: 30.5% probability
- Will Penisini: 28.5% probability
- Mitchell Moses: 28.2% probability
- Isaiah Iongi: 27.8% probability
Remember, our model updates frequently, so keep checking this page for the latest betting analysis before the Storm vs Eels match.
As always, see Stats Insider's Best Bets to get betting tips on every NRL match, as well as predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Storm vs Eels: Essential Details
The NRL Round 1 clash between the Storm and Eels at AAMI Park is scheduled to commence at 8:00pm AEDT on Thursday.
- Teams: Melbourne Storm vs Parramatta Eels
- Date: Thursday 5 March 2026
- Kick-off: 8:00pm AEDT
- Location: AAMI Park
All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT), unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
Our Storm vs Eels predictions have been made after running 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, carefully curated by our team of experienced data scientists and analysts. We use the latest in predictive analytics technology and machine learning to ensure our rugby league tips are accurate and reliable, giving you the knowledge you need to make informed decisions with confidence.
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