The AFL Grand Final is now just two sleeps away, but we might not be getting much sleep at all given the quality of Euro and PGA Golf we’ve got to watch tonight and through the weekend.

To the Napa Valley first for the PGA and the board at the Safeway Open doesn’t look great at first glance given the short-priced favourites, but value can (and has!) be found here looking in the right markets.

PGA: Safeway Open - Adam Scott @ 15.00

The first thing you do when we get to an event with Poa Annua greens is to check whether Adam Scott is playing and what his odds are. He is (surprisingly) playing this week but as one of the class players in the field he is down to 15-1.

Scotty loves Poa and this course at Silverado should really suit him. He can hit his long irons into the Par 3’s, club down on the tree-lined Par 4’s and be really aggressive with driver on each of the four Par 5’s – yes, he is short, but this golf course may actually have been made for him.

PGA: Safeway Open - Chez Reavie EW @ 41.00 / 8.50

The PGA lads were up nice and early crunching the numbers to try and get some value and they couldn’t go past Reavie. His course history is not too bad here (33^rd, 13^th, 22^nd, 17^th last 4 years) and he is hitting it better now than he ever has. Those starts were all first-up, as this one will be for him, so we know he can come in playing well.

Reavie is ranked #1 Par 4 scoring in this field, #2 in fairways gained and #2 in proximity which means he finds the fairway off the tee, he sticks his irons closer than pretty much anyone and gives himself a good look at birdie most holes. This shorter course, particularly the smaller Par 4’s should really suit him.

PGA: Safeway Open – Hideki Matsuyama Top 10 @ 2.90

It’s been a few years since Matsuyama has played here but his course history still jumped off the page; 3^rd in 2015 and 17^th in 2014 for a combined 16.7 shots gained tee to green on the field. That’s 2 shots up on the field per round!

The case for Deki is enhanced by what seems to be prolonged form with the flatstick where he actually gained on the greens in 9 of his last 11 starts last season. Poa is his favourite surface in terms of strokes gained against the field too. Safe bet for the player we’re getting, in this field, at this course – few of the lads are leaning into this one hard.  

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PGA: Safeway Open – Robby Shelton Top 30 @ 3.70

One of the new Korn Ferry graduates, Shelton has made 6 of his last 7 cuts on the PGA tour including a very impressive 7^th at the Greenbrier and a 28^th last week to start his 2020 season. He is ranked 6^th in this field for fairways gained which is a key statistic we’re focusing on this week. He hits the short stuff off the tee which is what you have to do here, and word around the Korn Ferry watercoolers is that he putted really well on Poa on that tour last season.

PGA: Safeway Open – Bud Cauley Top 30 @ 3.00

Bud hasn’t missed a cut here in 5 starts including a 7^th in 2017. He finished 14^th at the Greenbrier which was his last start. The top end of this field is quality but the bottom falls out really quickly so a guy like Cauley who can hit fairways, hit greens, he just needs to continue his hot putter from the Greenbrier and he can post a solid score here well inside the top 30.

RELATED: Stats Insider's Safeway Open Model Projections

PGA: Safeway Open – Martin Laird Top Euro @ 4.75

Little exotics play here, the lads took a look at this Top Euro market and all burst out laughing with Francesco Molinari installed as a $2.10 favourite. Underneath him is Martin Laird then underneath him are virtual no-names. Sepp Straka is there but has been in woeful form.

So it becomes a bit of a race in two and Laird is ranked 4^th in the field here on Poa. He beats Molinari in the key birdie-making Par 5 scoring metric, has course form here (46^th, 17^th, 8^th last 3 years) and Laird also hits more fairways than Molinari who played in England week. Molinari hasn’t played here before and has been back in the states for probably a day and a half after playing in the BMW in England.

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Alfred Dunhill Links Championship

It’s got a better field, on a better course at a better time to watch so we’re definitely having a dip in the Dunhill Links pool this week.

The weather looks absolutely horrible, forecast to be rainy and windy for all four days which for us means a greater confidence in fading the superstars up top and looking for players offering value who can handle the conditions.

Euro: Dunhill Links - Shane Lowry EW @ 17.00

The Masters champion loves links Golf, he won’t mind in the least if there are four days of rain and he is coming off a T11 at the BMW which could have easily been a top five had some putts dropped. He hit it well and played out the four days which tells me the game face is back on. He is being mowed down in the Race to Dubai points and will want very badly a spot on the Internationals side for the Ryder Cup.

Euro: Dunhill Links - Andrew Johnston EW @ 71.00

The Beef is back but shhhhhh, the bookies haven’t noticed yet. Coming off great month stretch of golf that included a 10^th, 23^rd then a T9 at the BMW last week, Johnston is another links lover (4^th at the Scottish Open this year) and he gets the Old Course first-up tonight at a tee time that looks the least-shithouse in terms of weather. Playing alongside actor Luke Wilson (from Old School fame) could have a calming impact on the big man – hopefully “The Godfather Effect” can help Beef stay relaxed and upbeat through the drizzle.

Euro: Dunhill Links - Kiradech Aphibarnrat EW @ 101.00

To complete our Jenny Craig Dream Team that would make a Springbok forward pack look like an Ethiopian long distance team, were taking a massive (pun intended) flyer on the Rat who also gets the Old Course first up (will be gettable this week) and gets the best of all-round bad weather tee time wise tonight. The Rat is a wizard with his wedges and putts the lights out. Hopefully conditions here will cause him to play pretty conservatively off the tee, just keep the ball in play. It's a true flyer but it didn't seem right to leave the other plus size guy out of our team!

Drop a comment at the bottom of the page (or on Twitter) to tell us where you think the value is this week 👇