Ruby Tuesday: Easter Bunny coming early for punters

With the pain and/or euphoria of last weekend on the punt now behind us, it’s time to get a jump on the field and turn our attention to the early markets to see if we can uncover some hidden gems of value*.

* At time of publishing.

Good Friday for the Doggies

The Easter Bunny will be coming early this year, according to the Stats Insider NRL model, with not one, but two green smileys in the Bulldogs v Souths game on Good Friday, The Bulldogs always lift for this clash, narrowly losing last year by just 4 points but smashing the Bunnies in 2017, 24-9.

Lions get their roar back

The Stats Insider AFL model is liking the value about the Lions this Thursday night against Collingwood, and, after having watched both sides this week, I have to agree that this game screams 'Lions 120% effort game.' The weather could be a factor in this one, but even if it's fine at bounce it has been raining all week in South East Queensland, so expect that to impact ball movement. Brisbane will relish any kind of wet weather given how they played against the Eagles in Round One.

Crows woes to continue against Suns

I'm not expecting the Suns to beat Adelaide after how they moved the footy last week against Carlton, but, nor am I expecting they get flogged. They will be in this much longer than their massive H2H price suggests. Collins, Hombsch and Ballard are forming a very solid intercepting backline for the Gold Coast and the Suns now have a midfield able to compete in terms of depth. 28.5 points seems a crazy high line to give for a Crows team that has not been able to find their key forwards. The Suns will be buoyed off the back of winning a game they should have lost, whilst every single Crows skill or decision error will be judged harshly by 50,000 South Australians with folded arms and furrowed brows.

Value about Fyfe-less Freo

It's a big risk, because if the skipper plays it's nigh impossible to win on this one, but the value about Freo's Andrew Brayshaw for 20+ / 30+ disposals is insane if Fyfe sits. He copped a pretty heavy knock last week and with this game being away in Canberra, it is just as likely they give their talisman an extra week in preparation for the Bulldogs at home in Round 6. Obviously, Mundy is also value in this spot sans Fyfe. With no Connor Blakely either, the value is too good to pass up for mine.

Hawkins in a great spot

With Ben Stratton and James Frawley both likely to miss Easter Monday's Hawthorn v Geelong blockbuster, Tom Hawkins looks likely to get one of his softest matchups of the season. Watch the teams named for this one and also monitor the weather - if planets align it could be a huge day out for the big man in front of the big sticks.

Molinari bounce-back

You often hear former players who played with Tiger talk about it, but playing with Tiger Woods in a final grouping on Day 4 of a major is like nothing else. It's a circus, and plenty of players come unstuck as we saw Francesco Molinari do on the back nine at Augusta. The Italian maestro is teeing up at Harbour Towns Links for the RBC Heritage this week and after going through what he went through on Masters Sunday, absolutely nothing will phase him here. Molinari is very solid off the tee and gets Carnoustie-like approaches. Loving the odds too.

Lest we forget

A quick look at the veeeeery early NRL markets for ANZAC Day next week and the Warriors line caught my eye. Yes, the Storm are undefeated - and at home - but the Warriors always lift for this fixture and the +11.5 early line just seems very generous for an emotion-charged ANZAC clash.

With the season still sorting itself out there is not an overabundance of value this week but there are gems about if you look hard enough. 

What did I miss? What do you like this Easter weekend?

I'm always keen to know what you - our valued readers - are thinking, so make sure you leave a comment below or get involved in the conversation with us on Twitter or Facebook.