It’s been a pretty red-hot start to the month here at Club 20 going at 54.8% POT so far in February thanks to a big BBL bet finally paying out and solid gains across AFLW, NBA and Euro Golf. 

So we’re cashed up and ready to attack the PGA this week - we have had a few down weeks on the PGA Tour but prodigious, constantly out-of-luck players like us just shake off those little form wrinkles and keep attacking! 😎 

NBA will lock at 11am (AEDT) so jump on these first because PGA is not until late tonight.

NBA THURSDAY

After being stuuuupidly unlucky yesterday not landing 3/3 due to Jrue Holiday sitting the entire 4^th quarter, we thought we’d go again on some NBA combo bets and try and cash in some of that luck that’s due. 

Being so close to All-Stars there is plenty of weird and not-so-wonderful shit that can happen today. Despite this being a clear warning sign, we are driving straight through the flooded road that is NBA in mid-Feb.

Devonte Graham (Charlotte Hornets) Points + Rebounds + Assists +28.5 @ 1.85

Playing big minutes and has found some form again last few games, gets a high implied total of 228 and should see another 33-35min game if it stays close. That’s the big if in this game, but no KAT should help. 

CJ McCollum (Portland Trail Blazers) Points + Rebound + Assist +28.5 @ 1.86

Blazers get another fast-paced match up taking on Memphis which helps McCollum who is coming off two quiet games which have seen his combo total plummet to a spot that looks very gettable. Portland blueprint is clear as day from last game – in the first quarter they were moving the ball and scoring at will, after that it was one out stuff which failed miserably. Expect the ball movement to be slick from the Blazers which gives CJ plenty of looks as well as hopefully more than a few dimes.

Bradley Beal (Washington Wizards) Points + Rebounds + Assists +40.5 @ 1.85

Beal arrives at Maddison Square Gardens for what should be a high-scoring game (230 implied total) and coming off a game where he looked in great touch but 3^rd gear against the Bulls. To give you an idea of the kind of usage Beal commands, on Xmas Eve the Wizards hosted the Knicks and Beal has 30/4/3 which is a pretty quiet night for him – if you don’t count the TWENTY FIVE (!!) missed field goals! Think it's pretty safe to bank 30pts out of Beal today, just need his peripherals to get us the rest of the way.

Wesley Matthews (Milwaukee Bucks) Points +9.5 @ 2.10

Hear us out! Still no Giannis so there are shots to go around, and Matthews can chuck up 2 or 3 three-pointers very easily here in a tough matchup against the Pacers. Getting plenty of mins. Like the price.

Caris LeVert (Brooklyn Nets) Points + Rebounds + Assists +27.5 @ 1.85

No Kyrie still. Had a poor game last start but smashed against the Raptors two games ago going for 44 combo points. He is capable of this any night, just needs those first few shots to fall. Will get his 32-34 mins and half of them without Dinwiddie on the court so his usage remains very high.

PGA TOUR – GENISIS INVITATIONAL

Tiger is hosting what is now an invitational which means a condensed field of just 121 and evidently Mr. Woods has been busy making calls to the best in the world who have unanimously (sans Webb Simpson) replied ‘yes sir, whatever you say sir. I’ll be there sir’. 

Put simply this is the best non-major/WGC field I have ever seen, a fact that makes it awesome for watching and also awesome for betting, particularly the 3-Balls with such a hot field on a course demanding a very particular skill set. 

The course is well known, we’re playing Riviera which is a Par 71 that features a half dozen really tough, long par 4’s which make the course play much longer than the overall yardage (7322 yrds) suggests – even guys like Rory and Rahm will be pulling 5 and 6 irons on approach into these brutish par 4’s.

Narrow fairways that are hard to hit, combined with those mid-long iron approaches mean more missed greens, which places an added importance on around-the-green game and scrambling. Poa greens don’t help the players chances of converting their par – Riviera has the most missed putts inside 3 feet on tour in the last decade. 

Not going to be a birdie-fest this. If you card three 68’s, you’ll be going off very late on Sunday put it that way.

Dustin Johnson @ 13-1

For two weeks now he has hit it so good tee to green and putted like a hungover Ray Charles. DJ loves this course and is in great form off the tee and with his irons, he has the length to gain a significant advantage here but the biggest plus is, perhaps counter-intuitively, how poorly he is putting. This course is hard to go low on for a number of reasons, one of which is the greens are small and tricky, which for mine brings DJ right into title contention. If he putts well he wins, if he putts poorly well, so will the rest of the field in all likelihood. Has won this before and has gained on the greens here in 7 of his last 8 showings.

Cam Smith @ 81/18 (Top 6)

Not great in the approach metrics that we are after but his course form is solid (4/4 cuts including T6 in 2018) and he loves Poa. His ability to stay in the hole and get up and down is exactly what we’re looking for if the course plays difficult. Smith has had 2 rounds over par here in 16 and they were 1 and 2 over. A little victory hangover was to be expected and has brought about two missed cuts last two starts, but this is the perfect course to refocus. Playing with Lashley and Casey out early Thursday can shoot a nice little 68/69 and watch the afternoon guys complain about the Poa greens growing. 

Carlos Ortiz @ 126/26 (Top 6), Top 20 @ 6.00, R1 Leader 81-1

We normally avoid this guy like the plague but he measures up well here. Ranks 5^th in field P4 scoring 450-500 which as we mentioned is a real difference this week (there are 6 here at Riviera including the 4 hardest holes). Poa is by far his best surface and has 3 good finishes here in 3 starts including a T9 last year. He's out first group on Thursday which is an advantage I think, will hopefully have good memories of his opening round 63 here last year. Hit it really well in phoenix just couldn’t get them to drop (T25).

Patrick Rogers Top 30 @ 3.60

• Good recent form (T9 Farmers, T16 Phoenix), good course form ( last 3 starts no worse than T26) and loves Poa.

Cam Tringale Top 30 @ 5.00

• Teeing off early R2 is a plus for making that cut,  ranks 23^rd in Par 4 scoring at our targeted range, 28^th in driving distance, solid around the green game, likes Poa and likes the course (6/7 made cuts including T8 in 2017).

AFLW – ROUND 2

Given the weather forecast and teams coming out Thursday night, we’re going to send out an email tomorrow morning with all the AFLW bets (and some PGA R2 3-balls) so lucky you, you get more of me.

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