Richmond vs Hawthorn Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 19, 2026
Last updated: Jul 19, 2026, 3:08AM | Published: Jul 12, 2026, 10:25AM
Richmond will sqaure off with the favoured Hawthorn in AFL Round 19 action at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Sunday, beginning at 1:10pm AEST.
This article features Stats Insider's top betting tips for the Richmond vs Hawthorn game, along with the latest betting odds and goalscorer tips.
Who Will Win?
Using trusted machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated the outcome of Sunday's Richmond vs Hawthorn AFL match 10,000 times.
Our proven predictive analytics model currently gives the Hawks a 92% chance of defeating the Tigers at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.
Richmond vs Hawthorn: Odds
The current Bet365 betting odds for Sunday's AFL clash at the Melbourne Cricket Ground are shown here:
- Head to Head: Richmond $11.00, Hawthorn $1.04
- Line: Richmond +52.5 ($1.91), Hawthorn -52.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 182.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has Richmond at $11.00 and Hawthorn at $1.04.
The Tigers are listed as 52.5-point underdogs against the Hawks, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the favourite Hawks (-52.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 182.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's analytics model, the Tigers (+52.5) are predicted to cover the line 56% of the time, while the 182.5-point over/under is expected to stay under 56% of the time.
Richmond vs Hawthorn: Betting Tips
- Head to Head: Richmond at $11.00 with Bet365
- Line: Richmond +52.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Under 182.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
These Richmond vs Hawthorn predictions are based on detailed modelling and gambling expertise to provide you with the best possible advice 24/7.
While the Hawks have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Tigers to win is our recommended option due to the edge found when comparing our data-led probabilities to the odds currently on offer.
Taking advantage of the edges seen on Stats Insider is crucial to achieving long-term profitability.
Richmond vs Hawthorn: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Richmond vs Hawthorn at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Sunday is Hawthorn winning 113-65.
This prediction is based on each team's average score from 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full betting coverage of the Richmond vs Hawthorn match on Sunday, including data-driven predictions and free betting tips.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Richmond vs Hawthorn: Goal Scorers
Searching for Richmond vs Hawthorn goal kicker tips? The latest data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Hawthorn's Jack Gunston is the most likely player to kick the first goal in Richmond vs Hawthorn.
Gunston has a 15.0% chance of kicking the first goal at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, while the Hawks star has a 99.2% chance of kicking a goal at any time during the match.
Scroll down for the complete list of first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer probabilities.
First Goal Kicker Tips
Richmond
- Tom Lynch: 4.8% probability
- Rhyan Mansell: 4.2% probability
- Sam Lalor: 3.5% probability
- Mykelti Lefau: 3.0% probability
- Noah Balta: 2.9% probability
Hawthorn
- Jack Gunston: 15.0% probability
- Nick Watson: 10.0% probability
- Mabior Chol: 7.2% probability
- Mitch Lewis: 5.8% probability
- Jack Ginnivan: 4.6% probability
Anytime Goal Scorer Tips
Richmond
- Tom Lynch: 80.0% probability
- Rhyan Mansell: 74.8% probability
- Sam Lalor: 64.7% probability
- Mykelti Lefau: 60.7% probability
- Tim Taranto: 56.2% probability
Hawthorn
- Jack Gunston: 99.2% probability
- Nick Watson: 95.6% probability
- Mabior Chol: 89.3% probability
- Mitch Lewis: 83.6% probability
- Jack Ginnivan: 75.2% probability
Remember, our model updates frequently, so keep checking this article for the latest betting tips before the Richmond vs Hawthorn game.
As always, see our Best Bets to get betting tips on every AFL match, plus predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Richmond vs Hawthorn: Essential Details
The AFL Round 19 clash between the Tigers and Hawks at the Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to start at 1:10pm AEST on Sunday.
- Teams: Richmond vs Hawthorn
- Date: Sunday 19 July 2026
- Time: 1:10pm AEST
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
Our Richmond vs Hawthorn predictions are the result of 10,000 data-driven simulations of the match, carefully curated by our team of skilled data scientists and analysts. We use the latest in predictive analytics technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are accurate and reliable, so that you can make informed decisions with confidence.
If you decide to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's important to gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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