Richmond vs Essendon Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 11, 2026
Last updated: May 22, 2026, 9:41AM | Published: May 17, 2026, 12:31PM
Richmond will sqaure off with the favoured Essendon in AFL Round 11 action at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Friday, starting at 7:45pm AEST.
This article features Stats Insider's prediction and tips for the Richmond vs Essendon game, along with the latest betting odds and goalscorer tips.
Who Will Win?
Utilising advanced computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated the result of Friday's Richmond vs Essendon AFL match 10,000 times.
Our independent predictive analytics model currently gives the Bombers a 67% chance of defeating the Tigers at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.
Richmond vs Essendon: Odds
The latest Bet365 betting odds for Friday's AFL clash at the Melbourne Cricket Ground are listed here:
- Head to Head: Richmond $2.90, Essendon $1.42
- Line: Richmond +14.5 ($1.91), Essendon -14.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 166.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has Richmond at $2.90 and Essendon at $1.42.
The Tigers are 14.5-point underdogs against the Bombers, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the favourite Bombers (-14.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 166.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's analytics model, the Tigers (+14.5) are predicted to cover the line 51% of the time, while the 166.5-point over/under is expected to go over 53% of the time.
Richmond vs Essendon: Best Bets
- Head to Head: Richmond at $2.90 with Bet365
- Line: Richmond +14.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Over 166.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
Our Richmond vs Essendon best bets are based on world-class modelling and betting experience to help you place more informed bets with your chosen online bookie.
While the Bombers have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Tigers to win is our recommended option because of the edge identified when comparing our data-driven probabilities to the odds currently available.
Taking advantage of the edges published on Stats Insider is pivotal to achieving long-term success as a bettor.
Richmond vs Essendon: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Richmond vs Essendon at the Melbourne Cricket Ground this Friday is Essendon winning 91-77.
This prediction is based on each team's average score from 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full betting coverage of the Richmond vs Essendon match on Friday, including data-driven predictions and the best betting tips.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Richmond vs Essendon: Goal Scorers
Looking for Richmond vs Essendon goal kicker tips? The data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Essendon's Nate Caddy is the most likely player to kick the first goal in Richmond vs Essendon.
Caddy has a 10.8% chance of kicking the first goal at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, while the Bombers star has a 96.3% chance of kicking a goal at any time during the game.
Scroll down for the full list of first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer probabilities.
First Goal Kicker Tips
Richmond
- Tom Lynch: 7.8% probability
- Seth Campbell: 5.3% probability
- Mykelti Lefau: 4.7% probability
- Steely Green: 3.5% probability
- Jonty Faull: 3.5% probability
Essendon
- Nate Caddy: 10.8% probability
- Archer May: 5.9% probability
- Thomas Edwards: 5.0% probability
- Xavier Duursma: 4.0% probability
- Sullivan Robey: 3.8% probability
Anytime Goal Kicker Tips
Richmond
- Tom Lynch: 90.5% probability
- Seth Campbell: 78.1% probability
- Mykelti Lefau: 74.9% probability
- Steely Green: 62.9% probability
- Jonty Faull: 62.9% probability
Essendon
- Nate Caddy: 96.3% probability
- Archer May: 82.3% probability
- Thomas Edwards: 75.3% probability
- Xavier Duursma: 66.0% probability
- Sullivan Robey: 66.0% probability
Remember, our model updates regularly, so refresh this article for the latest betting analysis before the Richmond vs Essendon game.
As always, see our Best Bets to get betting tips on every AFL match, plus predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Richmond vs Essendon: Essential Details
The AFL Round 11 clash between the Tigers and Bombers at the Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to commence at 7:45pm AEST on Friday.
- Teams: Richmond vs Essendon
- Date: Friday 22 May 2026
- Time: 7:45pm AEST
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
All dates and times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
Our Richmond vs Essendon predictions have been made after running 10,000 data-driven simulations of the match, carefully curated by our team of experienced data scientists and analysts. We use the latest in predictive analytics technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are accurate and reliable, giving you the confidence to make informed decisions.
If you choose to use our AFL predictions for betting purposes, it's crucial to gamble responsibly and know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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