QLD vs NSW State of Origin Game 3 Prediction 2026
Jul 7, 2026, 9:38AM
Queensland will take on New South Wales in Game 3 of the 2026 State of Origin series at Suncorp Stadium on Wednesday, starting at 8:05pm AEST.
This article features Stats Insider's top betting tips for State of Origin Game 3, along with the latest betting odds in Australia.
Who Will Win?
Based on advanced computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated the result of Game 3 of the 2026 State of Origin series 10,000 times.
Our proven predictive analytics model gives the Maroons a 60% chance of beating the Blues at Suncorp Stadium.
QLD vs NSW Game 3: Odds
The current betting odds in Australia for Wednesday's State of Origin clash at Suncorp Stadium are shown below:
- Head to Head: Queensland $1.58, New South Wales $2.45
- Line: Queensland -4.5 ($1.91), New South Wales +4.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 44.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, the bookmakers currently have Queensland at $1.58 and NSW at $2.45.
Queensland is listed as a 4.5-point favourite against New South Wales, with odds of $1.91 available at TAB.
For the underdog New South Wales (+4.5) to cover the line, TAB offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 44.5 with TAB, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's model, NSW (+4.5) is predicted to cover the line 51% of the time, while the 44.5-point over/under is expected to stay under 51% of the time.
State of Origin Game 3: Best Bets
- Head to Head: New South Wales at $2.45 with TAB
- Line: NSW +4.5 at $1.91 with TAB
- Total Points: Under 44.5 at $1.91 with TAB
Stats Insider's State of Origin Game 3 best bets are based on world-class simulations and gambling expertise to provide you with the best possible advice every day of the year.
While Queensland has a higher chance of winning the game, betting on NSW to win is our recommended option because of the edge found when comparing our data-driven probabilities to the odds currently on offer.
Taking advantage of the edges published here at Stats Insider is crucial to achieving long-term success as a bettor.
State of Origin Game 3: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for State of Origin Game 3 at Suncorp Stadium this Wednesday is the Maroons winning 24-20.
This prediction is based on each team's average score from 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full betting coverage of State of Origin Game 3 on Wednesday, including data-driven predictions and expert tips.
Our model updates regularly, so refresh this article for the latest betting predictions before the Queensland vs New South Wales game.
As always, see our Best Bets for betting tips for every State of Origin match, plus predictions for every game of the 2026 NRL season.
QLD vs NSW Game 3: Essential Details
The State of Origin Game 3 between Queensland and New South Wales at Suncorp Stadium is scheduled to start at 8:05pm AEST on Wednesday.
- Teams: Queensland vs New South Wales
- Date: Wednesday 8 July 2026
- Time: 8:05pm AEST
- Venue: Suncorp Stadium
All dates and times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
Our State of Origin Game 3 predictions have been made thanks to 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, all curated by our team of expert data scientists and analysts. We use the latest in predictive analytics technology and machine learning to ensure our State of Origin tips are accurate and reliable, so that you can make informed decisions with confidence.
If you choose to use our State of Origin predictions for betting purposes, it's vital to gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
More on State of Origin
Stats Insider is your go-to source for betting on State of Origin in Australia, with the latest State of Origin betting news and tips for every State of Origin game.
