QLD vs NSW State of Origin Game 1 Prediction 2025
May 25, 2025, 11:09PM
Queensland will take on New South Wales in Game 1 of the 2025 State of Origin series at Suncorp Stadium on Wednesday, beginning at 8:05pm AEST.
This article features Stats Insider's prediction and tips for State of Origin Game 1, as well as the latest betting odds and try scorer tips.
Who Will Win?
Using trusted computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated the result of Game 1 of the 2025 State of Origin series 10,000 times.
Our independent predictive analytics model currently gives the Blues a 58% chance of defeating the Maroons at Suncorp Stadium.
QLD vs NSW Game 1: Odds
The current betting odds in Australia for Wednesday's State of Origin clash at Suncorp Stadium are shown here:
- Head to Head: Queensland $2.25, New South Wales $1.65
- Line: Queensland +2.5 ($1.91), New South Wales -2.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 39.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, the bookmakers currently have Queensland at $2.25 and NSW at $1.65.
Queensland is listed as a 2.5-point underdog against New South Wales, with odds of $1.91 available at TAB.
For the favourite New South Wales (-2.5) to cover the line, TAB offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 39.5 with TAB, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's analytics model, NSW (-2.5) is predicted to cover the line 51% of the time, while the 39.5-point over/under is expected to stay under 51% of the time.
State of Origin Game 1: Best Bets
- Head to Head: New South Wales at $1.65 with TAB
- Line: NSW -2.5 at $1.91 with TAB
- Total Points: Under 39.5 at $1.91 with TAB
Our State of Origin Game 1 predictions are based on world-class modelling and wagering experience to bring you the best possible advice 24/7.
State of Origin Game 1: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for State of Origin Game 1 at Suncorp Stadium this Wednesday is the Blues winning 21-18.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full coverage of State of Origin Game 1 on Wednesday, including data-driven predictions and live win probabilitiestips.
State of Origin Game 1: Try Scorers
Who will score an anytime try in Game 1 of State of Origin? The data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Brian To'o is the most likely player to score the first try in QLD vs NSW.
To'o has a 7.6% chance of scoring the first try at Suncorp Stadium, while the NSW star has a 41.8% chance of scoring a try at any time during the game.
Scroll down for the complete list of first try scorer and anytime try scorer probabilities.
First Try Scorer Tips
Queensland Maroons
- Xavier Coates: 7.2% probability
- Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow: 5.1% probability
- Valentine Holmes: 5.1% probability
- Jeremiah Nanai: 4.7% probability
- Robert Toia: 4.0% probability
New South Wales Blues
- Brian To'o: 7.6% probability
- Latrell Mitchell: 7.0% probability
- Zac Lomax: 6.4% probability
- Stephen Crichton: 6.2% probability
- Dylan Edwards: 4.8% probability
Anytime Try Scorer Tips
Queensland Maroons
- Xavier Coates: 38.4% probability
- Valentine Holmes: 31.3% probability
- Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow: 31.3% probability
- Jeremiah Nanai: 25.3% probability
- Robert Toia: 23.6% probability
New South Wales Blues
- Brian To'o: 41.8% probability
- Zac Lomax: 38.5% probability
- Latrell Mitchell: 37.9% probability
- Stephen Crichton: 32.5% probability
- Dylan Edwards: 27.6% probability
Remember, our model updates regularly, so refresh this article for the latest betting analysis before the Queensland vs New South Wales match.
As always, see Stats Insider's Best Bets for the best tips on every State of Origin match, plus predictions for every game of the 2025 NRL season.
QLD vs NSW Game 1: Essential Details
The State of Origin Game 1 between Queensland and New South Wales at Suncorp Stadium is scheduled to start at 8:05pm AEST on Wednesday.
- Teams: Queensland vs New South Wales
- Date: Wednesday 28 May 2025
- Time: 8:05pm AEST
- Venue: Suncorp Stadium
All dates and times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
Our State of Origin Game 1 predictions have been made based on 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, all curated by our team of expert data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our State of Origin tips are accurate and reliable, giving you the knowledge you need to make informed decisions with confidence.
If you choose to use our State of Origin predictions for betting purposes, it's crucial to gamble responsibly and keep track of your money. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
More on State of Origin
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