Punters Corner: On a profit Three-peat!

It’s raining cash at Club 20 after a bumper R7 saw a 116.5% POT return (on the back of a 60% POT in R6).

Markets in general seem tighter this week, which is not ideal, but before we jumped into the Club 20 pool for a mid-morning Euchre and Wild Turkey sesh, we dove into the AFL Exotics form for Round 8 and were pleasantly surprised to find some value.

Confidence is (always) high but will also admit to plenty of pucker about from yours truly, as we shoot for an historic hat-trick here at Club 20 - good luck to all!

Daisy Thomas  25+ / 30+ Disposals

Going straight back to Daisy here with Simpson and Newman both still out for the Blues. There is just no one else down there for them and a 15-disposal second half last week shows he can hit the 30+ if injury doesn’t strike again.

Ben Reid, Jayden Stephensen  5+ / 6+ Goals

Conventional wisdom has the Pies by three figures here, so someone is going to kick some goals for Collingwood. Reid should have kicked a bag last week and Stephensen did, so we’re on them both here for 5/6+ goals. With no Jones for the Blues to kill the footy in flight, it could get really ugly for Carlton here.

Will Hayes 2+ / 3+ Goals

Call me crazy, but Hayes has been in absolutely prime spots to kick goals in his last two games but the Dogs, with ball in hand at the time, just haven’t had the vision or the leg to get it to him. He is just sneaking down the wing and into the 50 every time the Dogs go forward and is often unmarked. The Dogs will have spied this in the vision and with Matty Suckling back, they have a guy who can absolutely spear one 60m left to right pass across goals to Hayes.

Sam Powell-Pepper 25+ / 30+ Disposals

Without Ollie Wines in that midfield the Power need Sam Powell-Pepper to step up. He already has a 29-disposal game this season (sans Wines) and his price here for a big game is just too tempting. I expect Ellis-Yolmen and/or Riley Knight to keep the Power prime movers company in this game so SPP (and even Motlop) looks in a great spot for one of those out-of-the-box games.

Rory Sloane 30+ / 35+ / 40+ Disposals
I absolutely love Rory in this spot and the price is right for him to payoff big time. I doubt that Port will put a hard tag on him but even if they do, Sloane is just playing through it a lot better now. His team will need him to have a big game and with no Gibbs, it just increases the chances of Sloane finding plenty of the footy. The 30+ is the saver obviously, but he can go 40+ here I think.

Hugh Greenwood 2+ / 3+ / 4+ Goals

Showdown’s always produce strange results and I’m throwing a big dart at Greenwood for a few goals in this one. Always threatening in the Crows forward line, whether the Crows win well or whether it’s a close game, Greenwood is as clutch as they get in front of the goal.

Shaun Burgoyne / Mitchell Lewis 2+ / 3+ Goals

With Roughy and Wingard coming out of that Hawks forward line someone has to kick the goals. I’m going back to Lewis at great odds as well as the veteran Burgoyne, who will most likely be asked to play forward for majority of this game. Both at great odds!

Drop a comment at the bottom of the page (or on Twitter / Facebook) to tell us where you think the value is this week 👇