Punters Corner: Looking for love in Paris... Oh, and plenty of goals

If we thought disposals value was scarce last week (and we did, because it was), well it is now well and truly on the endangered species list.

We've looked and looked, there is just nothing that jumps out in the Disposals markets which has been a real go-to for Club 20 in previous weeks. 

Relying on the goal kickers to bring home the bacon doesn't fill me with an overabundance of confidence in a league where highly paid players are missing from the goal square, but you have to play the cards you're dealt and I've won on some very ugly hands before so here goes nothing!

Buddy Franklin 5+ / 6+ Goals

Franklin dominating on Sir Doug Nicholls round is a great narrative, but much more compelling for mine is the matchup big Bud will get tonight. I expect he sees Madgen first and if he can get two early doors, the Pies don’t have a great backup to go and clamp him. O don’t love the value at $8 for 5 and $20 for 6, hopefully you have found or will find better. But he is literally one of the all-time greats of the game in a solid matchup which is enough for me.

Brodie Grundy 2+ / 3+ Goals

The big ruckman has never kicked 3 in his career. Ever! I just can look past both the opportunity and the value here. There is likely to be a plethora of ball ups inside Magpies fifty tonight, a situation where Grundy can draw frees or execute a Hawkins push off/snap. Grundy is also likely to spend some time resting forward where he will be far too big for Melican. At $10s for 2 and $50 for 3 (you’ll get 400-1 for 4 if you are really brave (absolutely crazy) tonight. I just think the value matches the opportunity. Yes Stephenson, Mihochek or Reid could all bob up and kick a few and make me look silly, but they are at pretty insultingly low odds given who they are and call me crazy but I’d rather hope for a couple of Grundy than sweat 4 from Reid at a ridiculous 4-1.

Cameron Zurhaar 2+ / 3+ / 4+ / 5+ Goals  

In a weekend full of shockingly low value, the bookies seem to have missed young Zurhaar in a game that sets up to be free-flowing and high-scoring (assuming both sides can kick straight). He kicked a really clutch goal last week to arrest the point-fest and three starts back, bagged five goals (5.2), so the guy can convert when he gets the chances. At $4.50 (2), $15 (3), $73 (4) and $350 (5), the value is there. Hail mary thrown. Carn Cam!

Daniel Rioli 2+ / 3+ / 4+ Goals

I can see planets aligning for Rioli here at the G for the Dreamtime clash. Lynch and Caddy should be well covered by Hooker and Hurley, which means ground balls which means Rioli! At $5 for 2 goals, $18’s for 3 goals and $101 for 4 goals, Rioli looks well worth the punt in what should be a frantic, end-to-end game that will suit his strengths.

Stephen Coniglio 2+ / 3+ / 4+ / 5+ Goals

This is the big hail mary of the round for Club 20 patrons, we’re hoping that firstly, Coniglio plays Sunday and secondly, we’re hoping they play him out of the square for big stretches where the Dees have no good matchups for him. The Giants certainly don’t need him on-ball. Obviously, anything over a couple is a big ask but he has kicked 3 and 4 goals already this season. At $5 (2), $18 (3), $110 (4) and a lovely 526-1 for 5 goals, the value is certainly there. Little precipitation could spoil the day but it could just as easily produce more ground balls that Coniglio could get on the end of.

Harry McKay 4+ / 5+ / 6+  Goals

The Blues will produce a response game here which means more inside 50s and more opportunity for McKay who kicked 3 last week despite his teams’ best efforts. At $8.75 (4), $25 (5) and a juicy $81 for 6, McKay will get plenty of chances at great value.

Dean Kent 4+ / 5+ Goals

Response or no response, they are still Carlton and they still leap points like a sieve which brings a player like Dean Kent right into play here. $16’s for 4 and $60 for 5 for a player who is well overdue for a big bag seems like good value to me.

Dominic Thiem to win the French Open

Since we were lot of luck on the disposals market, we are exploring a different sport because good value is good value, right? Dominic Thiem has won his last 15 matches at Roland Garros against opponents not named Rafa Nadal or Novak Djokovic. Thiem has beaten Nadal recently on Clay and along with Tsitspias is the only player to beat both Federer and Nadal this year. Not a bad shout for the title at $8. 

Related: The 5 outsiders who could claim the Men's French Open

Marketa Vondrousova

If you don’t know Marketa Vondrousova by now, you will very shortly. The 19-year-old is a breakout star in 2019 and has a 20-4 record this year, including two WTA tournament finals, where she won the first set in each. In her recent quarter-Final run in Rome, she knocked over the 'Queen of Clay' Simona Halep. At $34, she seems like great value. 

Related: The 5 outsiders who could claim the Women's French Open