Punters Corner: Let's get the party started

Confidence is a wonderful thing and it is inundating Club 20 patrons ahead of what looks to be the round we stop the rot and start the party.

Personally I haven't felt this confident since my ressies prelim last year when the kid that trotted out to stand me was barely taller than my man-boobs!

Let's hope the Tomahawk can kick things off for us tonight and start a ripper long-weekend - enjoy and stay safe!

Tom Hawkins 5+, 6+ Goals

Going to be a big, big night for the Tomahawk. No Astbury, no Rance, there is no one down there for Richmond who can handle him. The Tigers ruck department will also struggle to contain him in forward 50 stoppage situations. At $5 for 5 and $11 for 6, Hawkins is short but the spot just doesn’t get better.  

At the time of writing, the Stats Insider model has Tom Hawkins at 94% chance to score anytime and 11.6% chance to be the first goal scorer in the match.

Friday night 2-legger

Hawkins 4+, Duncan 30+ @ $7.50

Charlie Cameron, Eric Hipwood 4+, 5+, 6+ Goals 

The Blues may have a new coach but they have the same roster and that team has leaked points all season. Key forwards have been murdering Carlton whilst Cameron doesn’t have a clear matchup and is the kind of player who if he starts well can really pay off with a big haul. Cameron is slightly shorter at $4.50 (4), $11 (5) and $30 (6) with Hipwood $5.50 (4), $13.50 (5), $38 (6) offering better value (for some strange reason).

Weather Watch on Goldy

There is a very (very) high chance that the Suns game will be rain-affected which makes Suns H2H, Suns Line, Either Under 16 and Under 140 pts all in play for mine. Obviously check radar early doors tomorrow but it ALWAYS rains this time every year on the Coast and they are forecasting 5 mm - 20 mm depending on where you look. Any drizzle is going to turn this game into even more of a scrap-fest than it was going to be in dry weather.

Lewis Jetta 20+ / 25+ / 30+ Disposals

With no Hurn at the back for the Eagles, Jetta is in a great spot to increase some output and the bookies have missed him a little here at $2.10 (20), $5.50 (25) and $15 (30). Peeled off 23 touches last week and expect him to be up for this clash against the old team.

Sheppard/Duggan/Jetta all 20+ 3-Legger

At $10.75, I think it’s well worth combining the Eagles backline distributors into a little 3-legger here. West Coast love to possess the ball and it usually goes through Hurn. He is not there and his 25 touches will be spread between these three guys. All coming off 20+ games and that was largely due to Hurn sitting out just the last quarter.

Sheppard/Duggan/Jetta all 25+ 3-Legger

The three of them for 25+ each is paying over 100-1 and whilst that’s obviously a hail mary play, they are coming off games where they have all had over 20 (22, 21, 23 touches respectively) so it is not that much further to go.

Mason Cox, 2+, 3+, 4+, 5+, 6+ Goals

We are pushing some chips in on the big man. Cox has been named on an extended bench and should play, he increasingly loves the big stage and is still decent enough value to have a go at here. Yes May and Lever are back but with Cox it actually doesn’t matter who he is on, if the ball is kicked well enough he can’t be spoiled. I’m expecting the Pies to absolutely pump the Dees here so hopefully the big yank can get in on the action at $2.60 (2), $6.50 (3), $20 (4), $85 (5) and a lazy $575 (6). Can cover all the hail mary ones by a double stake on Cox 2 goals.

Hedge’s Best 3-Legger 

Lewis Jetta 20+ , Mitch Duncan 30+,  Hawkins 4+, @$8

Hedge’s best 5-Legger

Lewis Jetta 20+ , Mitch Duncan 30+,  Tom Hawkins 4+, Charlie Cameron 3+, Mason Cox 2+ @$60

Drop a comment at the bottom of the page (or on Twitter / Facebook) to tell us where you think the value is this week 👇