Punters Corner: Josh Caddy and 'Kick it to Paddy' highlight the AFL Round 4 exotics value

It is one of the most exclusive (only) clubs on the Punters Corner strip and it is now open for (glorious hail mary) business – welcome to Club 20!

If you love a little bit of value as much as I do, if you can’t help but cast your eye over the exotics markets each week and dream of hitting that insane multi or being on a player when they have THAT game, then you’ve come to the right place.

This is a place not just to get a few bets to consider, but a place to give out a few, to analyse, debate, discuss, to yarn and banter with like-minded punters about what you like at the weekend. Drop us a line at the bottom of the page, or on the socials (twitter / facebook / instagram) where we'll share the best ones!

So whether you are on the hard stuff early or have just come off the beach to enjoy the view with a refreshing H20, the Club 20 facilities are yours to enjoy.

Magpies 40+, Jaidyn Stephenson 2+ / 3+ Goals

The Magpies are absolutely primed for a bounce back and could very easily put 40+ on the Dogs here. In fact, I think the 23% from the Stats Insider model on the 40+ is lowballing it considerably. Stephenson looks like the forgotten man as markets tighten right up on De Goey, Cox and Elliot. There is no great matchup for him, and his speed should see him shooting from the goal square. Kicked 2 against the Tigers in R2 and gave off another couple in that game.

Alex Witherden 30+ / 35+ Disposals

It’s Witherden junk week at the MCG against the worst forward line in the comp. Alex can lock in 10 disposals just off the kick ins from points from the Bombers. He is far too good a player to keep coming under 30 touches (3 of last 6 games of 2018 were 30+) so I'm taking a chance on him at great odds.

Josh Caddy 25+, 30+ Disposals

No Cotchin, no Grigg, no Dusty, no Houli, no Short – there is a mammoth disposal gulf in the Richmond on-ball brigade and someone like Josh Caddy could be just the man to fill it. Sure, it’s his first game back and yes, he may spend some time forward, but the Tigers have picked a lot of small forwards - and have also recalled Balta - which really makes me keen on Caddy to spend time in the midfield. The price for 25+ and 30+ is absolutely insane, far too good to pass up for mine.

Jack Graham 25+, 30+ Disposals

Such is the size of the midfield hole that the Tigers are in, we’re having two bites at the Richmond cherry this week and taking Graham as well as Caddy. Both Kane Lambert and Dion Prestia have both been spotted by the bookies but Graham and Caddy have snuck through at great odds. When was the last time the Tigers were without Cotchin and Martin? I can’t remember when but petrol was probably about 35 c/litre!

Paddy Ryder 4+ / 5+ Goals

Whoever lines up on Ryder will need a step ladder and the Power will know that coming into this game. Operation Kick It To Paddy will be Plan A, B and C in this one and that kind of exposure makes it difficult to get away from. He kicked 3 last week, can go one (or 2) better here against a very depleted and undersized Tigers outfit.

Trent Dumont 25+ / 30+ Disposals

I’ll be going to Dumont a lot this season because he has 40 disposal upside if the ball bounces his way. Started last week with 11 disposals in the first quarter and could easily have been 13 or 14. Faded badly but against the Crows at Marvel (conditions very conducive to high disposal counts) the odds are just too good for me to pass on.

Tom T Lynch 3+ / 4 + / 5+ Goals

Lynch is in a great spot here against a Kangaroos team that has two solid key defenders then no one else. Hopefully the Crows identify this and utilize Lynch on the lead as much as possible. He kiicked 2.3 last week against the Cats, so he is clearly getting the shots.

Andrew Brayshaw 25+ / 30+ Disposals

With no Fyfe and no Banfield in that Fremantle engine room, Brayshaw gets the best chance he is ever likely to get to hit 30+ this round. Being named on the half forward flank seems to have convinced bookmakers that the role will be unchanged but I just don’t see how he won’t play onball. Amazing value!

David Mundy 25+ / 30+ Disposals

For every reason that we have taken Brayshaw but just less value, Mundy is more a ‘saver’ type option because he is less value but is absolutely the next man in and is the senior figure now in that midfield that coach Ross Lyon will turn to for a big game.