Punters Corner: Exotics in the rain

A thousand pardons for the late opening time my good lads and ladies. With lots of precipitation about on the east coast, a game in Darwin and one in China, we wanted to make sure of final teams and get the weather spot on as well as avoid nasty surprises.

At first look there is not much value about this week but a little bit deeper inspection reveals a heap of juice that we can squeeze particularly in smaller 2-3 leg same game multi’s targeting Over/Under Player Disposals in spots where a prime mover has come out – more on that later.

Gold Coast Suns Line / Unders

Okay, full disclosure, I’m an unashamed Suns fan, but when there is rain about and I’m getting over 50pts at the line (I got 52.5) and over 150 game points (154.5) I’m very interested. Suns don’t leak points like they used to and more importantly, they don’t score many either so aided by a little rain, the Suns will be capable enough to hold the line here whilst also being inept enough to come in under the game points.

Jaidyn Stephenson 3, 4, 5+ Goals 

The odds aren’t great but the spot is sublime, getting a Dockers side backing up after a big Sunday win coming to the G against the Pies. Stephenson will get his chances, whether he takes them well, that’s in the hands of the footy gods. (found $3.75, $8.50, $23.50)

Darcy Tucker 2, 3+ Goals

At $16.75 for 2 and $141 for 3, I don’t mind throwing a little dart at a sneaky Tucker play here. The Dockers will not go long, and Bewley will squeeze Tucker into that forward line more again this week. He had two gettable shots last week and missed both which doesn’t bode well but he has kicked 2 goals in two games so far this year and if he can snag a third well, the milky bars will be on all of us!

Patrick Dangerfield 3, 4, 5+ Goals

Without Gaz in that forward line and with Dangerfield returning from injury, it just makes all the sense in the world to park him deep and give him some marking/goal kicking practice. If he plays onball he gets Hewett for company, so he may as well play deep forward and keep Rampe busy. At $6 (3), $15 (4), and $54 (5) I like the spot, the rain looks like it'll stay away too and the Swans look ripe for an absolute pasting here. Cats will remember last year’s fixture where they had their pants pulled down.

Tom Hawkins 6 Goals

Will always go to the big Hawk at 10’s when at home and in a great matchup. Little saver if they don’t play Danger forward too, as Hawk will get plenty of the supply.

Jordan Dawson 2, 3+ Goals

Like the Dockers, Sydney will have a mandate to kick short into the forward fifty to avoid Blicsavs/Taylor/Stewart as much as possible. That brings Dawson into play for mine. He will likely spend more time on-ball and up forward with McVeigh returning across half back. Love the player, love the price at $7.50 (2) and $40 (3).

Duncan, Parker 30+ Disposals

At $2.88 for Duncan (sans GAJ and with Danger likely to be up forward) and $2.40 for Parker (sans Kennedy) they just scream two-legger for mine. Take individually as savers and/or as one small multi @ $7.50.

Hugh Greenwood 2, 3, 4+ Goals

Jenkins is back which means Frost and McDonald will be busy with the bigs. Gibbs is back to bolster the midfield. I'm seeing Greenwood playing 60/40 forward/mid here in a game that looks likely to be high-scoring against a team that struggles to defend the third tall. You could argue Tom Lynch coming back hurts Greenwood here but Lynch is the delivery man way more often than not so I could (and just have) make a case that his inclusion helps Greenwood. At $5 (2), $16 (3) and $95 (4) I will be in on that. He has let us down already this season but I’ll go back to him – has a bag in him!

Ed Curnow 25, 30, 35+ Disposals

Could be the bet of the round – it’s Curnow time people! Brendan Bolton has reached a critical mass of experience now that he has been forced to throw Curnow onball where he belongs. Lang coming in makes me even more confident of getting pure midfield time out of Curnow. It is going to rain, it will be a stoppage game, and we have a great two-way midfielder at sensational odds of $4.50 (25+), $12.50 (30+) and $45 (35+)

I also love the look of taking advantage of the absence of some high-disposal players here by multi-ing Merret, Zaharakis, Curnow, Newman and Heppell for their Disposals O/U’s. With no Thomas, Shiel and Simpson there guys should all get a bump and cover their targets, rain or no rain.

The China Game

Without Rocky there is clearly a void to be filled in that port midfield. Steele could even go to Boak as well just to really shutdown their engine room. I love Karl Amon but I have been unable to find markets for him. Be interesting to see how they use Burton now that Broadbent is also in that lineup. There is value here but sniffing it out under all that uncertainty is tricky. If you are having a punt here, remember to put a premium on the runners, they have found HEAPS of the footy here in recent years so prioritise the guys with the big tanks. The Hoff could be one to watch as well.